In January 2005, the International Climate Change Taskforce, which was established by three leading think tanks including the Center for American Progress, released its report” Meeting the Climate Challenge.” The Taskforce was co-chaired by Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Stephen Byers, a member of the British Parliament. Its members included scientists and politicians from Australia, China, Malaysia, France, and Germany. The report represents an important starting point for progressives on climate, and Climate Progress will try to build on its work.
The report begins by noting:
The international consensus of scientific opinion, led by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is agreed that global temperature is increasing and that the main cause is the accumulation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as a result of human activities. Scientific opinion is also agreed that the threat posed will become more severe over coming decades.
The cost of failing to act will be high:
The economic costs alone will be very large: as extreme weather events such as droughts and floods become more destructive and frequent; communities, cities, and island nations are damaged or inundated as sea level rises; and agricultural output is disrupted. The social and human costs are likely to be even greater, encompassing mass loss of life, the spread or exacerbation of diseases, dislocation of populations, geopolitical instability, and a pronounced decrease in the quality of life.
This makes action on global warming a top public policy goal:
Preventing dangerous climate change, therefore, must be seen as a precondition for prosperity and a public good, like national security and public health.
The report notes that action will have a far lower cost than in action, and “need not undermine standards of living.” In fact, “by taking action now and developing a long-term climate policy regime we can ensure that the benefits of climate protection are achieved at least cost.”
By reducing greenhouse emissions and deploying new climate-friendly technologies, companies can create jobs and launch a new era of economic prosperity.
The political and economic effort required is both large and achievable. Many of the technologies we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — technologies that use energy more efficiently and generate it from renewable sources — already exist. They are here, they are affordable, and their use could make an enormous contribution right now, while simultaneously promoting energy security and stimulating innovation.
The report comes to a very important conclusion about the need to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions before we cross key thresholds that could result in catastrophic climate change:
On the basis of an extensive review of the relevant scientific literature, we propose a long-term objective of preventing average global surface temperature from rising by more than 2°C (3.6°F) above its pre-industrial level (taken as the level in 1750, when carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations first began to rise appreciably as a result of human activities).
Above this threshold, the risks of severe impacts or runaway climate change grow rapidly. These risks include the loss of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, which could raise sea levels 40 feet or more, and “the transformation of the planet’s forests and soils from a net sink of carbon to a net source of carbon.”
Realistically, the report notes that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would avoid 2°C warming with high confidence is exceedingly difficult, especially since we have already warmed 0.8°C from preindustrial levels and will warm another 0.6°C even if we could sharply reduce global greenhouse gas emissions immediately.
With the reelection of George W. Bush, who is opposed to any mandatory domestic action on reducing greenhouse gas emissions–and who is actively opposing state and international action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions– 2°C is all but inevitable. Indeed, if our climate policy were left to the Bush administration indefinitely, we would probably see more than 4°C warming this century alone. Climate Progress will explore this crucial subject in greater detail in future posts. For now, those seeking a good introduction to the challenge posed by stabilizing at 2°C, the website Realclimate.org has a good post on this subject.
Two more conclusions are worth highlighting:
All developed countries introduce national mandatory cap-and-trade systems for carbon emissions, and construct them to allow for their future integration into a single global market.
This is the essential starting point for domestic action on climate. Sadly, the administration and the conservative Congress are opposed to any such action. The Report’s final recommendations is:
Governments committed to action on climate change raise public awareness of the problem and build public support for climate policies by pledging to provide substantial long-term investment in effective climate communication activities.
Sadly, again, this administration has been committed to spreading disinformation and muzzling climate scientists like NASA’s James Hansen. In the absence of a government-led effort to raise public awareness, Climate Progress represents one small step at the nongovernmental level to fill the gap
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