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Archive for November, 2006

Adding Up the Losses from Hurricanes and Extreme Weather

Thursday, November 30th, 2006

Hurricane season has ended this year. Thankfully there were no Katrinas, which caused over $50 billion in insured losses.

We were fortunate to have a relatively typical Atlantic hurricane season with the number and duration of storms “very close to the averages one expects for an Atlantic hurricane season.” This was thanks to a confluence of unusual factors – including a “rapidly growing El Nino” that typically makes it hard for Atlantic hurricanes to form.

But while individual hurricane seasons are difficult to predict because of such factors, the trend is clear: Hurricane Katrina is exactly the kind of extreme weather event we expect to see more and more of thanks to our inaction on climate change. And sea level rise will only complicate efforts to protect coastal cities from major hurricanes.

Plenty MagazineA recent article in Plenty magazine weighs in on the “risky business” that will continue to confront the insurance industry as climate change feeds extreme weather conditions. Two reports (here and here) conclude that insurance companies are not appropriately preparing for the environmental and health consequences of climate change.

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Start Smart on Climate with Energy Efficiency

Wednesday, November 29th, 2006

The McKinsey Global Institute has released a report on energy productivity and energy demand. The report concludes that by aggressively pursuing energy efficiency and efforts to curb the demand for energy, “the worldwide energy consumption rate could be cut by more than half over the next 15 years.”

To read the report, you have to be a registered user with McKinsey.com, but today’s New York Times has run an article that sums it up well. Energy Star

A few highlights of the article are that:

  • The findings are based on what is possible with technologies that already exist.
  • Energy efficiency is a “start smart” approach to addressing climate change, as climatologist Stephen H. Schneider puts it.

And don’t forget about the Supreme Court case, Massachusetts v. EPA, whose opening statements are heard today. The coincidence of the court case and the report’s release underscores both the growing awareness of the urgent need to act on global warming and the fact that smart solutions exist today.

The Climate is now in our Court

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

On Wednesday, the Supreme Court will hear a case in which Massachusetts, ten other states, and a handful of environmental groups challenge the Bush administration’s refusal to implement policies that curb carbon dioxide emissions.

The Clean Cars Campaign has posted a summary (including links to the briefs of petitioners and respondents) that provides a straightforward explanation of the legal case. It also lays out specific questions the court will answer, the actions that may be required by the administration, and what is at risk for the climate, the government, and the automobile industry.

The briefing and the Clean Cars Campaign’s primer are extremely useful tools in understanding the court case and its implications. How sad that saving the climate has come to this: Suing the Administration to adopt genuine climate solutions, rather than the administration pursuing genuine climate solutions on its own.

You can Run (or Fly or Ski) from Global Warming, But you just can’t Hide from it

Monday, November 27th, 2006

Climate change no longer resides solely in scientific journals. An article in Sunday’s Washington Post illustrates the growing evidence of local impacts felt by nature, cities, and businesses.

The article, “On the Move to Outrun Climate Change” is based on an upcoming report by University of Texas at Austin professor Camille Parmesan. She compares the results of more than 800 peer-reviewed studies on the effect of climate change on nature.

Parmesan is able to relate the following trends caused by human-propelled global warming, among others:Orange-tip

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The Glaciers ARE Melting and We ARE the Cause

Sunday, November 26th, 2006

More new studies show that our major glaciers — both inland and Greenland/Antarctica are melting faster thanks to human-cause global warming — with dire consequences for us all. Global warming deniers like Sen. Inhofe (R-OK) and the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

One recent survey shows accelerated glacial melting. Especially worrisome is the loss of the inland glaciers in South America and Asia, which will threaten the water supplies of millions of people within a few decades. “The glaciers are going to melt and melt until they are all gone. There are not any glaciers getting bigger any more,” said glaciologist Georg Kaser who led the research.

This research is further detailed in a Geophysical Research Letters paper led by Kaser (subs. req’d), which notes that the sea level rise from melting glaciers (as opposed to the ocean expanding as it gets warmer), more than doubled in the 2001-2004 period versus 1961-1990 period.

greenland_ice_melting.jpgAs for Greenland, an article in Nature (subs. req’d — news article here) reports an ice loss comparable to about 0.5 mm/year, which is pretty astonishing when you consider that the scientific consensus, the U.N.’s 2001 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, had projected little or no contribution from Greenland to sea level rise by 2100! The authors conclude ice sheet disintegration is accelerating: “The rate of ice loss increased by 250 per cent between the periods April 2002 to April 2004 and May 2004 to April 2006.”

And why is this all happening? Kaser’s GRL paper concludes:

The decrease of mass balance from near zero around 1970 gives confidence that late 20th century glacier wastage is essentially a response to post-1970 global warming, reinforced by feedbacks among which the most important are probably the balance-altitude feedback (net melting lowers the glacier surface to warmer altitudes, increasing net loss) and the albedo feedback (more darker ice exposed at the surface promotes further melting).

Only we can stop it.

Sundance versus Los Angeles

Friday, November 24th, 2006

Sundance Summit

There’s something very wrong with the movies–and the air–in Los Angeles, according to the Sundance Institution.

Robert Redford’s Utah resort is famous as the site of the Sundance Film Festival, but last week it was host to a fresh, independent voice: the second Sundance Summit of mayors. The consensus among summiteers: If the federal government won’t step up and address climate change, local officials will.

Among those in attendance were co-founder and former Senator Gary Hart, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, nearly 30 mayors and representatives of other concerned groups, all gathered to discuss climate change, energy, and sustainability.

At the end of the two-day summit, the mayors unveiled a website on taking action. Redford himself has recently announced the Sundance Channel Green, coming in 2007 loaded with environmentally-conscious TV programming.

The Sundance Film Festival has made a name for itself by being what Hollywood is not. The Sundance Summit will make a name for itself by giving Los Angeles what it desperately needs: truly pollution-free air.

This Climate Solution is a Turkey. Really.

Tuesday, November 21st, 2006

Turkey“It may not be the total answer to relieving the United States’ addiction to foreign oil…”, as Reuters put it, but an energy company has started building a plant in Minnesota to use poultry droppings to generate carbon-free electricity.

On Thanksgiving, you may not want to think about what exactly the word biomass means as a renewable energy. You wouldn’t want to ruin your feast by bringing up “700,000 tons per year of turkey litter” as a source of clean power for 55,000 homes in Minnesota. On the other hand, maybe it’s just the political debate you want to spark with your in-laws.

Taxation without Representation?

Monday, November 20th, 2006

Villepin, French Prime MinisterThose cheese-eating surrender monkeys are at it again. Greenwire (subs. req’d) reports:

French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin … said the nation would push the European Union to create a carbon tax on non-Kyoto nations. In total, two industrialized countries chose not to ratify Kyoto: Australia and the United States.

Reaction from Australia was swift and strong:

Australian Prime Minister John Howard today … called the plan ridiculous. “That is a thoroughly silly proposal and utterly out of touch with reality,” Howard said.

Reaction from us was swift but bland:

At the U.N. climate change conference in Kenya, U.S. officials slammed the proposal. “We would not see in this case this kind of approach as being the most constructive one or the most effective one,” said Paula Dobriansky, the U.S. undersecretary of state for democracy and global affairs.

Hmm. Does this mean Dobriansky might consider the proposal the second most effective one–second, say, to the U.S. proposal to refuse to do anything whatsoever?

Seriously, though, while the tax proposal seems unlikely to go anywhere, sooner or later–probably sooner given the accelerated rate of climate change we are witnessing–nations that refuse to take action on climate will be seen as rogues and punished accordingly by the world community. We must join the fight soon, lest some French satricial TV show label us “Freedom-Fry-eating polar-bear killers.”

Global Warming = Insomniac Bears

Sunday, November 19th, 2006

bear.jpgAh, to be a bear. Normally they sleep the winter away and prior to their hibernation eat and eat to put on weight, as much as 400 pounds. Makes you feel better about Thanksgiving, no?

But, thanks to global warming, their natural cycle is getting disturbed. Reuters reports:

Insomniac bears are roaming the forests of southwestern Siberia scaring local people, as the weather stays too warm for the animals to fall into their usual winter slumber.

Insomniac bears?! Imagine how grumpy you would get if your annual nap were seriously postponed. Fortunately, there has been sufficient food supply and so no attacks, but local environmentalists are keeping a close eye on the situation.

Who knows what other strange impacts of global warming will have on the planet? But for now, if you see a forest ranger filling a prescription for mega-doses of Ambien, you’ll know why.

And one final thing, Robert Samuelson

Friday, November 17th, 2006

Columnist Samuelson’s attack on the Stern Report does more than merely ignore energy efficiency and avoid any serious discussion of climate impacts. Here is how it ends:

We need more candor. Unless we develop cost-effective technologies that break the link between carbon dioxide emissions and energy use, we can’t do much. Anyone serious about global warming must focus on technological progress – and not just assume it. Otherwise, our practical choices are all bad: costly mandates and controls that harm the economy, or costly mandates and controls that barely affect greenhouse gases. Or, possibly, both.

Does that that position sound familiar?

“It’s important not to get distracted by chasing short-term reductions in greenhouse emissions. The real payoff is in long-term technological breakthroughs.”

That is John H. Marburger III, the president’s science adviser. When you start sounding like the Administration on global warming, it is a pretty good indication that you’re just plain wrong. Pardon my candor.

New Congress may Slow Coal to Liquids

Thursday, November 16th, 2006

Converting coal to a liquid fuel like diesel is a bad idea for the climate, as previously noted. The good news is that the new Congress will be far more skeptical of the idea than the old one.

“Democrats’ Climate Test Could Hamper DOD Push For Alternative Fuels,” is how Energy Washington (subs. req’d) put it:

The Defense Department’s push to find alternative fuel sources could face a tough hurdle if the new Democratic leadership in Congress closely scrutinizes the climate impacts of controversial technologies, such as coal-based Fischer-Tropsch refining, that DOD is considering, observers say.

The article goes on to explain:

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Technology Research vs. Technology Deployment

Wednesday, November 15th, 2006

The New York Times recently reported a sad fact summed up in the headline: “Budgets Falling in Race to Fight Global Warming.” (subs. req’d) reporter Andrew Revkin notes, “research into energy technologies by both government and industry has not been rising, but rather falling.”

20061030-energy2_190x126.gif

The article is important and well worth reading in its entirety. Unlike many articles on this subject, it does not neglect the critical area of energy efficiency, and cites John Holdren, president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science:

The most immediate gains could come simply by increasing energy efficiency. If efficiency gains in transportation, buildings, power transmission and other areas were doubled from the longstanding rate of 1 percent per year to 2 percent … that could hold the amount of new nonpolluting energy required by 2100 to the amount derived from fossil fuels in 2000 –a huge challenge, but not impossible.

The article reflects a tension in the scientific and energy communities between those who believe the solution to global warming is developing new technologies, and those who believe we have to begin taking action now deploying existing technologies. I think the correct position was well summed up by Tony Blair in 2005:

We need to invest on a large scale in existing technologies AND to stimulate innovation into new low-carbon technologies for deployment in the longer term.

There really is no competition between technology research and technology deployment. Existing technology can go a long way towards buying us time to develop new technologies, but all the breakthroughs in the world won’t help us if we dither so long that we pass critical points of no return. The time to act is now.

U.S. Almost Gets its International Priorities Right

Tuesday, November 14th, 2006

ricenaacp2.jpgRice Moves Energy Concerns To Top Of U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda” is the headline in Energy Washington (subs. req’d) today. The article explains:

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has decided to move energy issues to the forefront of U.S. foreign policy, establishing a new global energy coordinator post and changing the scope of two existing undersecretary positions so they can engage directly on energy issues, according to congressional and diplomatic sources. The energy coordinator would act to bolster U.S. policy toward energy consumer and producer nations while establishing greater inter-agency cooperation, according to these sources.

Energy certainly warrants more focus by the State Department, but what we really needed was a headline reading “Rice Moves Climate Concerns To Top Of U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda.”

Unfortunately, that seems unlikely in this administration, so such a move would probably just get her fired, which I guess would make her fried Rice.

More on Robert Samuelson not Getting it

Monday, November 13th, 2006

samu21.jpgColumnist Samuelson’s attack on the UK’s important Stern Commission Report does more than merely ignore key greenhouse-gas-reducing technologies. Samuelson titles his piece “Greenhouse Guessing,” because he (mistakenly) thinks that determining the impact of global warming is a guessing game:

The other great distortion in Stern’s report involves global warming’s effects. No one knows what these might be, because we don’t know how much warming might occur, when, where or how easily people might adapt. Stern’s horrific specter distills many of the most terrifying guesses, including some imagined for the 22nd century, and implies that they’re imminent. The idea is to scare people while reassuring them that policies to avert calamity, if started now, would be fairly easy and inexpensive.

Two points must be made. First, a great many people know what the effects of global warming will be. They are called climate scientists. And most of them have been increasingly warning about the same kind of serious climate impacts the Stern report worries about, such as mega-droughts and sea level rise up to 13 feet this century, not the next one.

Second, the phrase “we don’t know how much warming might occur,” is only true because scientists model a variety of scenarios. For instance NASA models one scenario where we start action to combat climate change immediately, which has relatively moderate impacts, and a business-as-usual case (BAU) where we delay serious action, which leaves to future generations massive sea level rise (ultimately 80 feet or more) and horrific species extinction.

If we listen to Samuelson, we end up with the second scenario. Delay is the one sure way to turn “terrifying guesses” into terrifying impacts.

Robert J. Samuelson still doesn’t get it

Sunday, November 12th, 2006

After writing an entire column on oil without mentioning global warming, Samuelson writes an entire column on the supposedly high cost of tackling global warming without mentioning key solutions, such as energy efficiency.

Samuelson attacks the UK’s Stern Report in a column titled “Greenhouse Guessing.” He claims

With today’s technologies, we don’t know how to cut greenhouse gases in politically and economically acceptable ways. The world’s 1,700 or so coal-fired power plants — big emitters of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas — are a cheap source of electricity.

But for Samuelson, “today’s technologies” to replace coal consist entirely of solar power, wind power, and nuclear power. While solar and wind are certainly more viable than he thinks, the egregious mistake is to ignore the most cost-effective strategy for reducing emissions — simply using energy more efficiently.

This is a common mistake, as we have seen. In fact, many major studies, including one by five national laboratories, have shown that for we could achieve significant carbon reductions without raising the nation’s total energy bill. Those studies include an aggressive set of policies to promote energy-efficient technologies that can pay for their extra cost through reduced energy bills.

Samuelson says, “It seems impossible to have an honest conversation about global warming.” His piece does little to improve the dialogue.

Global Warming = Bush gets Fired

Thursday, November 9th, 2006

Yes, it is absolutely true. It was even reported in a major newspaper.

OK. The major newspaper was Australia’s Sydney Morning Herald and the story was about the risk posed to the Australian bush from global-warming induced heat and drought. But I couldn’t resist the headline. And the story makes clear that the increase in wildfires Americans are already experiencing from global warming is poised to become a major worldwide phenomenon.

In fact, Australian scientists found that if greenhouse gas emissions increase to the high end of current projections (which they will if we don’t reverse climate policy soon), the probabilities of bushfires “go through the roof so extensively that we probably won’t actually see bushfires then because we will already have completely burned the bush.”

No, global warming is not going to lead to the firing of President Bush, but it will lead to more and more bushfires (and wildfires) until we put a torch to the do-nothing policies of our Bush.

The New Congress needs to Do MORE than just Debate Climate Change and Hold Hearings

Wednesday, November 8th, 2006

What do the election results mean for climate policy?

Congressional Quarterly (subs. req’d) reported earlier this week:

If Democrats take Congress, the energy industry can expect an effort to repeal tax breaks, a renewed debate on climate change, and a push for policies that promote alternative fuel sources and crack down on price-gouging, say top Democrats on the House and Senate energy committees.

dingell_headshot_2004.jpg“Renewed debate” is a scary phrase, since debate won’t solve the dangerous threat posed by unrestricted emissions of greenhouse gases. The article quotes top House Energy and Commerce Committee Democrat John D. Dingell of Michigan:

Dingell also said he expected to hold hearings on climate change, an issue with an impact on auto emissions. But any action would likely have to come in the form of international cooperation, he said.

We need more than hearings and debate. Certainly the ultimate solution to the climate problem requires international cooperation. But the other major industrialized countries have already begun taking action under the Kyoto protocol. The U.S. needs to take action NOW because we are the richest and most polluting country–and have no credibility with the rest of the world when it comes to pledging action internationally.

Even if the Bush Administration vetoes any serious climate legislation and continues its policy of inaction, Congressional action will send a strong signal to the rest of the world that we are ready to join the fight once we have a new president in 2009.

Kenya — Dig It!

Tuesday, November 7th, 2006

While the mid-term elections get all the media coverage in this country, much of the rest of the world is focused on the major international climate conference going on in Nairobi, Kenya.

Sadly, the Bush Administration continues its “stay the course” policy of refusing to take action to prevent catastrophic global warming:

“I certainly got no indication (from the Bush administration) that there’s any change in our position, nor is there likely to be during this presidency,” U.S. negotiator Harlan Watson said.

While Climate Progress would love to have attended, you can get daily blogging from Nairobi from the World Resources Institute blog. They are not only providing daily updates, but have excellent background information on exactly what this conference is and on what its agenda is (and should be).

A U.S.-China Race with No Winners

Monday, November 6th, 2006

Global warming is poised to make this “The Century of Drought.” How ironic then that the two countries racing to see who will produce the most greenhouse gas emissions — China and the United States — are already in the grips of extended droughts.

Here is the U.S., with the browns and reds showing the severest areas of drought (although the U.S. is, fortunately, much improved from where it was during the height of summer):

us-drought-small.gif

Here is China:

chinadrought-small.gif

And the planet has only warmed about 0.8°C in the past century. What will these pictures look like on our current path, where we could easily warm four times as much this century or more?

This is a race with no winners and it is time for us to join the race to save the climate.

The Ship of Things to Come

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

icebreaker.jpg

Global warming means that icebreaker ships will increasingly be able to traverse the fabled Northwest passage. As the Washington Post reports:

A relentless climb of temperature — 5 degrees in 30 years — is shrinking the Arctic ice and reawakening dreams of a 4,000-mile shortcut just shy of the North Pole, passing beside the Arctic’s beckoning oil and mineral riches.

When will the passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific through the Canadian Archipelago be “open to shipping all summer because of the ceaseless warming.” Some say it will still be many decades, while “Canada’s defense agency says 2015.” Given that global warming appears to be happening faster than most experts expected, I wouldn’t bet against the defense agency.

The Arctic has enormous oil resources, but, of course, the burning of oil is one of the principal sources of human-generated greenhouse gases. So If you look up “irony” in some not-so-distant-future dictionary, you may well see a picture of an oil tanker in ice-free polar waters filling up on an Arctic oil well.

Let’s hope that is not the ship of things to come.