Climate Progress

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With less than a week before Bush’s 2007 State of the Union address, concerned parties are speculating over what the President will announce in regards to climate change. The problem is that no matter what he says, he will do nothing.

He is expected to call for a serious boost in our ethanol supply and consumption, but in terms of a climate change policy? The White House has gone so far as to outright DENY its intention to cap emissions.

Well, what about the state of our atmosphere? Of the Arctic sea ice or the Greenland ice sheet? What about the state of the union in 2050?

Last year, the “addicted to oil” comment was supposedly added last minute, so let’s just hope (feverishly) that he puts a final cap on the State of the Union by capping carbon dioxide emissions. Failing to do so would render the speech–and his presidency–irrelevant.

The media is abuzz that Bush will unveil new energy proposals in the State of the Union address. But it really is a “dog bites man” story.

Has any president ever talked so much about a problem while doing nothing to address it? The President’s sweeping rhetoric on energy independence, unfortunately, has never been accompanied by serious policies–he actually has cut the funding for the key energy-saving technologies–which is one reason our dependence on imported oil has kept rising throughout Bush’s presidency. So we should take any new words in the 2007 address with many, many grains of salt.

Here are the relevant excerpts about energy from Bush’s State of the Union addresses:

2001: As we meet tonight, many citizens are struggling with the high cost of energy. We have a serious energy problem that demands a national energy policy. The West is confronting a major energy shortage that has resulted in high prices and uncertainty. I’ve asked Federal agencies to work with California officials to help speed construction of new energy sources, and I have directed Vice President Cheney, Commerce Secretary Evans, Energy Secretary Abraham, and other senior members in my administration to develop a national energy policy.

Our energy demand outstrips our supply. We can produce more energy at home while protecting our environment, and we must. We can produce more electricity to meet demand, and we must. We can promote alternative energy sources and conservation, and we must. America must become more energy independent, and we will.

2002: Good jobs also depend on reliable and affordable energy. This Congress must act to encourage conservation, promote technology, build infrastructure, and it must act to increase energy production at home so America is less dependent on foreign oil.

2003: Our third goal is to promote energy independence for our country, while dramatically improving the environment. I have sent you a comprehensive energy plan to promote energy efficiency and conservation, to develop cleaner technology, and to produce more energy at home.

… Tonight I’m proposing $1.2 billion in research funding so that America can lead the world in developing clean, hydrogen-powered automobiles. A single chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen generates energy, which can be used to power a car — producing only water, not exhaust fumes. With a new national commitment, our scientists and engineers will overcome obstacles to taking these cars from laboratory to showroom, so that the first car driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen, and pollution-free.Join me in this important innovation to make our air significantly cleaner, and our country much less dependent on foreign sources of energy.

2004: Consumers and businesses need reliable supplies of energy to make our economy run — so I urge you to pass legislation to modernize our electricity system, promote conservation, and make America less dependent on foreign sources of energy.

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Obviously, if you get drought indices like these, there’s no adaptation that’s possible.

–David Rind, NASA climate scientist, 2005

We’re showing warming and earlier springs tying in with large forest fi re frequencies. Lots of people think climate change and the ecological responses are 50 to 100 years away. But it’s not 50 to 100 years away–it’s happening now in forest ecosystems through fire.

– Thomas Swetnam, University of Arizona climate scientist, 2006

Imagine if the climate changed and extreme weather became so constant that it was no longer considered extreme. Mammoth heat waves like the one that killed 35,000 Europeans in 2003 would occur every other year. Mega- droughts and widespread wildfires, like those of the record- breaking 2005 wildfire season, which ravaged 8.5 million acres, would be the norm. This new climate would wipe out whole forests, including virtually every pine tree in British Columbia. The Arctic would have little or no summer ice, and the Greenland ice cap would melt, eventually raising sea levels by 20 feet.

If we permit this Planetary Purgatory to occur, the nation and the world would be forced to begin a desperate race against time–a race against the vicious cycles in which an initial warming causes changes to the climate system that lead to more warming, which makes adapting to climate change a never- ending, ever- changing, expensive, exhausting struggle for our children, and their children, and on and on for generations.

This chapter will focus on (1) the impacts of accelerated warming, especially drought and wildfires, and (2) the fatal feedbacks that will probably start to kick into overdrive during this era and complicate any effort to stop the Greenland Ice Sheet from melting….

Satellite images and seismic monitors have confirmed that some 16 months ago an ancient ice shelf broke off from Ellesmere Island in the northern most part of Canada.

The separation took place on August 13, 2005 when the Arctic summer was 3˚C higher than normal and crucial ice pack was blown away from protecting the ice shelf.

According to the Canadian scientists involved, this is a huge change. It offers a glimpse into what the future holds–a full-scale disappearing act by Arctic ice before 2040.

Warwick Vincentn of Laval University has traveled to see the ice shelf and concludes:

We can say it is consistent with the larger body of evidence indicating the climate is warming and predictions that the greatest effects are likely to take place at high latitudes.

He also makes an astute observation: “People talk of endangered animals — well, these are endangered landscape features, and we’re losing them.”

Right he is, and we just witnessed a rare ice shelf begin to float off and melt away.

A nice UPI story on the book was picked up by ClimateArk, among others:

A former energy official under President Bill Clinton has released a new book on global warming, calling on the country to address the issue by changing how — and which — energy sources are consumed.

“Hell and High Water: Global Warming, the Solution and the Politics,” by Joseph Romm, Clinton’s assistant secretary of energy for renewables and energy efficiency, comes as global warming has received attention unseen before.

Congress, too, is starting to press the issue, while the debate over costs and benefits is likely to play a major role.

In the book, Romm outlines strategies which he says can help avoid possible global catastrophe. Included in his proposals are: creating more fuel efficient cars through hybrid technology, constructing 1 million wind turbines and capturing and storing the carbon dioxide from coal plants.

Speaking recently at the Center for American Progress, in Washington, Romm recommended a California model of energy consumption for the rest of the country.

Californians emit two-thirds less in carbon dioxide than what the average American emits, and yet their energy bills are the same, Romm said.

“The cost of action is much lower than people thought,” said Romm, “but the main cause (of inactivity is that) people don’t understand the cost of inaction.”

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger wants to start getting Californians off petroleum. He is making that clear in one of his executive decrees that targets the amount of carbon oil refineries allow in their fuel.

The mandate is expected to bring more ethanol and biodiesel into California’s gas tanks and encourage the growth of the alternative fuel industry in general.

That is part of an aggressive effort to cut 10% of the carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles and ultimately reduce California’s total emissions 20% by 2020.

Arnold’s announcement coincides with the enactment of AB 32, for which Californians have spent months preparing. The AB 32 Industry Implementation Group has formed from companies that opposed the regulations. Hopefully everyone can work toward promoting the bigger goals: economic growth and less pollution.

I don’t see any reason why the power of hurricanes wouldn’t continue to increase over the next 100 to 200 years.

– Kerry Emanuel, MIT atmospheric scientist, 2006

On our current warming trend, four superhurricanes — category 4 or stronger — a year in the North Atlantic is likely to become the norm 20 years from now.

– Judith Curry, Georgia Tech atmospheric scientist, 2006

Only a quarter of Atlantic hurricanes make U.S. landfall, and while there is no question that the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes is rising, where they will actually go any given year is somewhat random.

That said, the Gulf of Mexico is going to get warmer and warmer, as is the Atlantic Ocean, and so hurricanes that enter the Gulf are likely to start out and end up far more destructive than usual. I would not bet that the Mississippi Gulf Coast will get hit by a super- hurricane in any particular year, but I would certainly plan on it being hit again sometime over the next ten years; I wouldn’t be surprised if it were hit by more than one.

Coastal dwellers from Houston to Miami are now playing Russian roulette with maybe two bullets in the gun chamber each year. In a couple of decades, it may be three bullets.

Some argue that the recent jump in severe hurricanes was caused by a rise in sea- surface temperatures that is just part of a natural cycle. That position is scientifically untenable, which is why most of the people who advance it are not global- warming researchers. We’ll see why the natural- cycles argument will no doubt prove to be “largely false,” as MIT’s Kerry Emanuel said in 2006. Hurricane seasons with four or more super- hurricanes–those with sustained wind speeds of 131 mph or more–will soon become the norm….

Climate Progress was on Al Franken this week (audio available here). The interview shows that even catastrophic climate change can be a source of humor.

Franken posed a challenge to science-fiction author and global warming denyer Michael Crichton: Debate ClimateProgress on climate change. Franken promised to be neutral — and really who is a more neutral commentator than Al Franken?

ClimateProgress immediately agreed. But so far, not a peep from Crichton. Chicken!!

The following article of mine ran last month in the Houston Business Journal and is here reprinted in its entirety:

TXU Corp. plans to pour billions of dollars into power plants putting out emissions that may ultimately ruin the city of Houston and Texas. Is that really wise?

Texas utility companies including TXU have announced plans to build more than a dozen new coal-fired power plants. Coal plants put out far more heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions than any other type of power plant. Worse still, TXU will not be using the latest technology, which gasifies the coal and could allow carbon dioxide to be captured and stored.

The planet has already warmed nearly 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the past century and human emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide are the primary cause according to scientists from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and around the world. If we continue unrestrained emissions, the United States will suffer brutal consequences.

Few states are likely to suffer more from global warming than Texas, and Houston has a much as much at risk as any major U.S. city. What do Houston and Texas face?

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