Comments on: IPCC: Mercury–and Sea Levels–Rising http://climateprogress.org/2007/02/07/ipcc-mercury-and-sea-levels-rising/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Wed, 07 Jan 2009 04:51:43 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1 By: john http://climateprogress.org/2007/02/07/ipcc-mercury-and-sea-levels-rising/#comment-2556 john Thu, 08 Feb 2007 04:30:47 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/02/07/ipcc-mercury-and-sea-levels-rising/#comment-2556 And the thing is, the IPCC's worst case is, in all likelyhood, a best case scenario. The real worst case scenario is much worse, because recent research that didin't make it into the IPCC analysis shows that both Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets are melting faster than the report forecasts. Much faster. Moreover, IPCCs emission scenarios are inherently conservative, and may understate both the increase in CO2 emissions, and the atmospheric concentrations of GHG. Finally, the IPCC modles do not factor in feedbacks that suggest sinks such as soils, forests, and oceans will cease sequestering GHGs as well or even become sources (the boreal forests are in the process of doing just this as we speak). They also fail to model a second factor, positive feedbacks resulting in the release of naturally occurring GHG such as methane from peats, permafrosts and hydrates as the world warms -- a volume of GHG exceeding anthropegenic sources. In the the real world, the IPCC's worst case scenario, may not even be a best case scenario. I think it's very important for people to understand that the IPCC report, which shut off data collection in 2005, missed a great deal of recent research that makes their report -- as good as it is -- obsolete upon publication. The world will be very lucky to escape this march of folly with anything lilke the IPCC's worst case scenario. Sadly, the real plausible worst-case scenario is worse than anything the IPCC envisions. Way worse. And the thing is, the IPCC’s worst case is, in all likelyhood, a best case scenario. The real worst case scenario is much worse, because recent research that didin’t make it into the IPCC analysis shows that both Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets are melting faster than the report forecasts. Much faster.

Moreover, IPCCs emission scenarios are inherently conservative, and may understate both the increase in CO2 emissions, and the atmospheric concentrations of GHG.

Finally, the IPCC modles do not factor in feedbacks that suggest sinks such as soils, forests, and oceans will cease sequestering GHGs as well or even become sources (the boreal forests are in the process of doing just this as we speak). They also fail to model a second factor, positive feedbacks resulting in the release of naturally occurring GHG such as methane from peats, permafrosts and hydrates as the world warms — a volume of GHG exceeding anthropegenic sources.

In the the real world, the IPCC’s worst case scenario, may not even be a best case scenario.

I think it’s very important for people to understand that the IPCC report, which shut off data collection in 2005, missed a great deal of recent research that makes their report — as good as it is — obsolete upon publication.

The world will be very lucky to escape this march of folly with anything lilke the IPCC’s worst case scenario.

Sadly, the real plausible worst-case scenario is worse than anything the IPCC envisions. Way worse.

]]>