Climate Progress

Real Climate has an excellent post: “The lag between temperature and CO2. (Gore’s got it right.).”

The post answers the question, “Doesn’t the relationship between CO2 and temperature in the ice core record show that temperature drives CO2, not the other way round?” This issue is often raised earnestly by those who don’t know the science and raised speciously by those who do (or who ought to).

Beginning Monday, politicians and scientists will gather in Bangkok, Thailand to polish off the third leg of the 2007 IPCC reports for a Friday release. The report features climate change mitigation and encourages swift policy decisions and implementation.

A few weeks ago, ClimateProgress covered the third report’s focus on transportation emissions. According to a New York Times article by Andrew Revkin, there is also an optimistic light on the role that sustainable industrialization in developing countries can play in slashing projected emissions.

Stay tuned. If you think politicians tinkered in the first two scientific summaries for policymakers, imagine what this summary of the action for policymakers will have to say.

For better or for worse, this spring has been the hot season to dedicate an entire magazine issue to climate change and the environment.

May’s issue of The Nation is no different. It features an article by James Hansen, Why We Can’t Wait, in which he lays out five basic recommendations for approaching the climate challenge.

The Nation issue is titled “Surviving Climate Change”. Meanwhile, Newsweek has written about “Learning to Live with Climate Change“.

That’s the ‘for worse’ part, though, because Newsweek carried an article by Richard Lindzen that is a classic piece of disinformation. See RealClimate’s post “Lindzen in Newsweek” for Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann’s list of Lindzen’s many seemingly willful errors. They end their piece pointing out that even Vanity Fair’s latest eco-issue lists Lindzen as an ‘environmental sinner’.

Now there’s a twist on the classic hot-or-not column!

Scientific and observational data from Antarctica are driving home the message that we have entered a period of consequences.

Most recently, scientists have discovered ice streams hiding bigger reservoirs of water in West Antarctica. The evidence has “major implications for glacial melt rates and associated sea-level rises“, and the rate of warming.

Equally frightening is that the ice streams feed into the Ross Ice Shelf, a major southern ice shelf whose melting would indicate “the end of the road” according to one scientist.

In 1999 scientists began to observe pools of water on top of the Larsen Ice Shelf (green shaded area near upper left peninsula), which soon after broke apart and shocked the world. At that time, scientists expressed concern were the warming to continue and move southward, particularly to the Ross Ice Shelf.

Now it has. Whether the discovery of the ice streams, water reservoirs, and lakes follows any climate model seems dwarfed by the rapid progression of direct observation succeeding intuition. Trouble is gushing forth.

The group PlanetSolar has announced a sea voyage using a vessel entirely powered by solar photovoltaic energy. Their project is a self-described (R)evolution that explores possible technologies intended to evolve into use with hybrid vehicles.

They compare their boat to a swan, as it makes no noise, no pollution and moves gracefully, thanks to its innovative, contemporary design. PlanetSolar has appointed a skipper, who is responsible for sailing the swan around the world. Visit the PlanetSolar website, entirely powered by solar energy, for the route and more information on the boat, those involved, and their project.

Could it be true? According to a Japanese paper, the Daily Yomiuri, China will announce its intentions in a joint statement with Japan.

China is supposedly going to ignite efforts to participate in international discussions on cutting its greenhouse gas emissions. Drafts of the statement also indicate unique bilateral cooperation between Japan and China to improve China’s environmental record.

An announcement of this nature would be huge - huge as in 4,707.28 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (China’s 2004 emissions, as reported by the 2004 International Energy Annual report). And it would demolish the American excuse that we’re waiting on the Chinese to seriously act.

In fact, it’s so huge that we’re not really sure whether or not to believe it… but let’s all hope the Chinese leadership is wiser than ours.

Australian Prime Minister John Howard is in a sticky, yet dry, situation.

Even though a drought has caused Australia’s agricultural production to fall 25 percent in the last year, Howard may have to ban irrigation so that urban centers can have drinking water.

The targeted river basin, the Murray-Darling, is known as Australia’s ‘food bowl’ because it houses 72 percent of Australia’s farm and pasture land. If insufficient rain continues through the next few weeks, this year’s harvest will be devastated and cities will need to implement water usage restrictions.

Prime Minister Howard doesn’t accept the connection to global warming, but scientists and farmers disagree, saying “this drought has the fingerprints of climate change all over it.” In climate models, Australia is predicted to be one of the first areas seriously impacted by climate change.

Australia is accustomed to drought, but not of this proportion. During the last major drought, agricultural production fell 10 percent, not nearly one quarter. The Prime Minister’s struggle to manage water resources is a testament to just how unprepared for climate change’s impacts even developed countries are.

There is no use denying climate change anymore, not when a drought is sucking three-quarters to one percent of the GDP dry. According to Sir Nicholas Stern’s report, that could be the GDP it takes to prevent future damage by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

Without any sort of adaptation or mitigation policy, our future is beginning to dry up.

Similar to the first IPCC’s fourth assessment release being watered down by neglecting the great ice sheets, the second report’s release has also been watered down, in an alternative sense.

Again, a number of scientists feel as though the most urgent messages were not conveyed due to diplomats’ edits. But rather than flooded coasts, the neglected details indicate abundant water scarcities ahead. That is, in communities not flooded by severe storms. From the Washington Post (emphasis added):

• “More than one sixth of the world population live in glacier- or snowmelt-fed river basins and will be affected by decrease of water volume.” And depending on how much fossil fuels are burned in the future, “262-983 million people are likely to move into the water stressed-category” by 2050.
• Global warming could increase the number of hungry in the world in 2080 by anywhere between 140 million and 1 billion, depending on how much greenhouse gas is emitted over the next few decades.
• “Overall a 2- to 3-fold increase of population to be flooded is expected by 2080.”
• Malaria, diarrhea diseases, dengue fever, tick-borne diseases, heat-related deaths will all rise with global warming.
• In eastern North America, depending on fossil fuel emissions, smog will increase and there would be a 4.5 percent increase in smog-related deaths.

As global average temperatures increase and sea levels rise, water levels in the Great Lakes have been projected to drop, possibly falling five feet. Notoriously cold winters in Michigan are expected to warm by 10 degrees Fahrenheit, and summers by 13 degrees.

It sounds nice to trade in your cup of hot chocolate for a fudgesicle, but there are many downsides.

Recreational use of the lakes are going to take a huge slam. Populations of cold-water fish (like trout) will be impacted by the warming waters, which means weekend fishing trips and the fishing industry will feel the hurt (as a sport, estimated to be worth $4.5 billion).

If water drops by five feet, approximately 100 feet of shore will be added to the beaches. As a newspaper in Michigan points out, the new water levels will skyrocket real estate along the lakes but make navigation difficult for boats. Shipments through the lakes can be expected to be reduced by 23 percent, which would certainly hand a financial blow to the region and businesses.

Meanwhile, policy continues to delay serious action, supposedly to preserve the American way of life. When will we fully recognize that our way of life will change dramatically if we do not act?

For tangible, illustrative examples of how we have already begun (and will continue to need) to adapt to climate change, pick up the latest issue of Sports Illustrated.

ClimateProgress has touched on the issue before, noting the effect of weather and changing climate on golf greens and the example that sports figures and teams can set. But there is a world of sports out there as Sports Illustrated makes clear in its recent article, “Going, Going Green.”

The feature article both localizes and grandly outlines the consequences of climate change. It voices concern in niches we take for granted: catch in the backyard, the number of evening football games, spring training in Florida, the potentially sensitive issue of naming a team the Hurricanes, or the growing inaccuracy of the name “Baltimore Orioles“.

Starting now, there’s no more bench warmers.