Comments on: 2007: First or second hottest year on record so far

By: llewelly

llewelly — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 04:02:59 +0000

It should be noted that 1998’s record is in part due to the strongest recorded El Nino. (El Nino raises surface temperatures because it is the warm indo-pacific pool spreading out and rising up - effectively moving heat from deep water into shallow waters.) In effect, surface temperature anomalies overestimate pacific ocean heat content during El Nino episodes, and underestimate pacific ocean heat content during La Nina episodes. Therefor, surface anomalies likely overestimate the effect of AGW during El Nino episodes, and underestimate during La Nina years.
2005 was ENSO neutral (with near La Nina conditions late in the year). 2007 is also so far ENSO neutral, but with La Nina late in the year still a strong possibility.

By: Colorado Bob

Colorado Bob — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 07:14:00 +0000

When on sees “Common Sense” as a screen name, you can be sure “Critical Thinking” ain’t in the mix.

By: Bladerunner

Bladerunner — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 12:58:57 +0000

It’s like I’ve always said, “Common sense ain’t so common”.

By: Raul the puppet

Raul the puppet — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 13:14:27 +0000

Hey common sense. Is that before or after you were imbibing? Gee I should have some of the happy “kook” aid you been guzzling. No doubt you’re a well-oiled kolteresque “swifted” republicansmearmonger.

By: Mike Hunt

Mike Hunt — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 16:28:49 +0000

Except,
http://www.nnseek.com/ e/ alt.globalwarming/ coldest_summer_on_record_coming_up_for_europe_99386482m.html
COLDEST SUMMER ON RECORD COMING UP FOR EUROPE
“Whilst much of Europe seems to have been stuck in a depression for

weeks on end now, summer 2007 is surely going to go down in history as

one of the coldest on record. Currently above 3000m, you would be

forgiven for thinking that Christmas was just around the corner! Last

week in the Mont Blanc region alone, nearly 70cms of new snow fell

around 4000m and another 30-40cms has come down since Sunday. As a

result, all this new snow is creating a very unstable snow pack at

altitude and many of the rescue call outs in recent days have been

resulting from avalanches rather than rockfalls.”
http://www.news.com.au/ dailytelegraph/ story/ 0,22049,22069080-5001031,00.html
Fear of a global ‘coldening’
“LAST month Australians endured our coldest June since 1950. Imagine that; all those trillions of tonnes of evil carbon we’ve horked up into the atmosphere over six decades of rampant industrialisation, and we’re still getting the same icy weather we got during the Cold War.

Not that June should be presented as evidence that global warming isn’t happening, or that we’re causing it. Relying on such a tiny sample would be unscientific and wrong, even if it involves an entire freakin’ continent’s weather patterns throughout the course of a whole month, for Christ’s sake.

No such foolishness will be indulged in here.

Sadly, those who believe in global warming - and who would compel us also to believe - aren’t similarly constrained. A few hot days are all they ever need to get the global warming bandwagon rolling; evidently it’s solar powered. Here, for example, is an Australian Associated Press report on May’s weather, which in places was a little warmer than usual”

By: Joe

Joe — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 17:35:49 +0000

I deleted the comments of “Common Sense.” I don’t have a problem posting comments from Denyers (see Mike Hunt above — even though I’m assuming his name is a Simpson-esque alias). But ranting and swearing do not advance the debate.

Mike didn’t bother to check the NCDC data before his post — http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ oa/ climate/ research/ 2007/ jun/ global.html — or he would have learned that “Global land surface temperature was third warmest on record in June. Temperatures were above average in Europe, eastern Brazil, northwestern Africa, and most of Asia and the contiguous U.S. Cooler-than-average conditions occurred in Australia, western Russia, and the southcentral U.S.”

So even with isolated cold spells, we keep seeing warmer and warmer temperatures around the globe.

By: Dave Thomas

Dave Thomas — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 05:30:43 +0000

I can’t get an accurate weather forecast for next week and “scientists” want me to pay attention to what they have to say about 2050. I chuckle reading about all of this “speculation.” It isn’t any more scientific than the stock market.

By: Joe

Joe — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 17:26:55 +0000

You are confusing weather and climate. Try googling the two. They ain’t the same.

By: Joe

Joe — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 20:01:44 +0000

One simple example — it is considerably easier to predict the average temperature for January than it is to predict the average temperature for a given day in January. So, too, it is a far, far easier to predict the average annual temperature 10 years from now, using the best climate models, than it is to predict the weather two weeks from now.