http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/11/climate-news-roundup-23/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Mon, 22 Mar 2010 12:45:54 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/11/climate-news-roundup-23/#comment-5056 Earl Killian Sun, 12 Aug 2007 18:02:25 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/11/climate-news-roundup-23/#comment-5056 To put some numbers on it, Zimov estimated 500 Gt of carbon stored in the permafrost to be 500 Gt of yedoma, 400 Gt of non-yedoma non-peat, and 50-70 Gt of peat. He looked in the lab at the respiration rates of yedoma, and concluded that "then most carbon in recently thawed yedoma will be released within a century". Let's be conservative and call "most" just 50%, so 250 Gt in 100 years, or 2.5 Gt of C per year. If it merely CO2 (and not CH4), then this is 9 Gt CO2 per year. For comparison, U.S. emissions are currently about 7.1 Gt CO2e per year. So it we start the permafrost thawing, it is like bringing on line a second U.S. If we start the permafrost melting and then the U.S. manages to come to its senses and cuts its emissions to 0, the permafrost can continue some of the worst scenarios in the IPCC report. And that's not counting the non-yedoma carbon. To put some numbers on it, Zimov estimated 500 Gt of carbon stored in the permafrost to be 500 Gt of yedoma, 400 Gt of non-yedoma non-peat, and 50-70 Gt of peat. He looked in the lab at the respiration rates of yedoma, and concluded that “then most carbon in recently thawed yedoma will be released within a century”. Let’s be conservative and call “most” just 50%, so 250 Gt in 100 years, or 2.5 Gt of C per year. If it merely CO2 (and not CH4), then this is 9 Gt CO2 per year. For comparison, U.S. emissions are currently about 7.1 Gt CO2e per year. So it we start the permafrost thawing, it is like bringing on line a second U.S. If we start the permafrost melting and then the U.S. manages to come to its senses and cuts its emissions to 0, the permafrost can continue some of the worst scenarios in the IPCC report. And that’s not counting the non-yedoma carbon.

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