Comments on: Are Scientists Overestimating — or Underestimating — Climate Change, Part III http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:56:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1 By: Ron http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5293 Ron Thu, 23 Aug 2007 14:23:23 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5293 [also posted in part one] Over or under estimating isn’t the point. When the climate doesn’t behave the way a model predicts it means the model is flawed. It doesn’t tell you why, it only means that the scientists who designed the model didn’t fully understand climate. We are a long way from fully understanding how climate works. Real scientists will tell you the same thing. Even most of the devout AGW believers admit to a lot of uncertainty. I’m not saying the failure of an arctic sea ice model or hurricane season model is proof that AGW is a farce. In fact, you can’t use an inaccurate model as proof of anything. Come on, guys. Let’s do some scientific thinking here. [also posted in part one]

Over or under estimating isn’t the point. When the climate doesn’t behave the way a model predicts it means the model is flawed. It doesn’t tell you why, it only means that the scientists who designed the model didn’t fully understand climate.

We are a long way from fully understanding how climate works. Real scientists will tell you the same thing. Even most of the devout AGW believers admit to a lot of uncertainty.

I’m not saying the failure of an arctic sea ice model or hurricane season model is proof that AGW is a farce. In fact, you can’t use an inaccurate model as proof of anything.

Come on, guys. Let’s do some scientific thinking here.

]]> By: Earl Killian http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5295 Earl Killian Thu, 23 Aug 2007 16:19:36 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5295 To Ron: the greater the uncertainty, the greater our caution should be. Imagine a reality TV show producer proposes you and your friends participate in a game of Russian Roulette for a small payment (to you or your estate). He says he doesn't know how many chambers of the revolver are loaded, and points out "it might be none" (typical salesman). The consensus of various people with more knowledge of the particular revolver suggest probably 3 chambers are loaded, but estimates range from 1-5. Does the controversy about the number of loaded chambers make you more willing to play? The question is why do you want to point a potentially loaded gun at your head at all? (Or more accurately, your children's heads). To Ron: the greater the uncertainty, the greater our caution should be. Imagine a reality TV show producer proposes you and your friends participate in a game of Russian Roulette for a small payment (to you or your estate). He says he doesn’t know how many chambers of the revolver are loaded, and points out “it might be none” (typical salesman). The consensus of various people with more knowledge of the particular revolver suggest probably 3 chambers are loaded, but estimates range from 1-5. Does the controversy about the number of loaded chambers make you more willing to play? The question is why do you want to point a potentially loaded gun at your head at all? (Or more accurately, your children’s heads).

]]> By: CL http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5308 CL Fri, 24 Aug 2007 14:53:11 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5308 Models are not 100% correct, but they are not 100% wrong, either. They still provide useful information, though. We have to act with the knowledge that we have, while simultaneously building on that knowledge. Waiting until we 'fully understand' the climate is folly; it's going to be while before that goal is met. Will there be climate surprises? Of course. We've only been observing 'the climate' systematically for a handful of decades and we don't have a grasp of many of the subtleties yet. We've not seen an ice cap melt or a 35% increase in CO2, so we're a bit fuzzy on the finer details. We do understand (and can model) the basic picture, though. It's most likely to be something we don't like, and history suggests that even small climate changes can bring down a civilization (e.g. "The Winds of Change" by Linden). If we want to avoid that fate, or even thrive, the time to act is now. Models are not 100% correct, but they are not 100% wrong, either. They still provide useful information, though. We have to act with the knowledge that we have, while simultaneously building on that knowledge. Waiting until we ‘fully understand’ the climate is folly; it’s going to be while before that goal is met.

Will there be climate surprises? Of course. We’ve only been observing ‘the climate’ systematically for a handful of decades and we don’t have a grasp of many of the subtleties yet. We’ve not seen an ice cap melt or a 35% increase in CO2, so we’re a bit fuzzy on the finer details. We do understand (and can model) the basic picture, though.

It’s most likely to be something we don’t like, and history suggests that even small climate changes can bring down a civilization (e.g. “The Winds of Change” by Linden). If we want to avoid that fate, or even thrive, the time to act is now.

]]> By: Hank Roberts http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5351 Hank Roberts Sun, 26 Aug 2007 20:40:00 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5351 Ron, who tells you that any imperfection is reason to throw out what's useful? Sounds religious to me. http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_E._P._Box Ron, who tells you that any imperfection is reason to throw out what’s useful? Sounds religious to me.

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_E._P._Box

]]> By: David D. http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5377 David D. Tue, 28 Aug 2007 00:27:04 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5377 are these the same models that are not able to reproduce historical climate data? Are these models that - like hurricane predication models - consistently have to be reworked to fit the data? Are these the models whose algorithms are not available for evaluation? Are these the models that - according to the IPCC report - at one time predicted 20 foot rises in sea levels but now - according to the 2007 IPCC report - predicts sea level rises of inches over decades? are these the same models that are not able to reproduce historical climate data? Are these models that - like hurricane predication models - consistently have to be reworked to fit the data? Are these the models whose algorithms are not available for evaluation? Are these the models that - according to the IPCC report - at one time predicted 20 foot rises in sea levels but now - according to the 2007 IPCC report - predicts sea level rises of inches over decades?

]]> By: Craig Dillon http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5455 Craig Dillon Sat, 01 Sep 2007 03:14:47 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5455 And you have not identified other important feedbacks -- loss of albedo as arctic ice melts, and release of undersea hydrates. Loss of albedo's effect can be calculated. We do not know enough about undersea hydrates to predict anything -- but the possibility is there. Personally, I believe that the current huge decline in the summer arctic ice coverage minimum shows that we have already gone past the Point of No Return. I think we are witnessing the end of the Holocene. Struggle as we may, I doubt we can anything about it. And you have not identified other important feedbacks — loss of albedo as arctic ice melts, and release of undersea hydrates. Loss of albedo’s effect can be calculated. We do not know enough about undersea hydrates to predict anything — but the possibility is there.

Personally, I believe that the current huge decline in the summer arctic ice coverage minimum shows that we have already gone past the Point of No Return.

I think we are witnessing the end of the Holocene. Struggle as we may, I doubt we can anything about it.

]]> By: David D http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5545 David D Fri, 07 Sep 2007 01:16:42 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5545 Yah. Life as we know it is over. There's no use, we've destroyed our planet. The Hale Bop dudes had the right idea - they just killed themselves over the the wrong catastrophe. I mean a single molecule in our enormous atmosphere has increased by about 0.010% - that is one hundredth of one percent - and we're doomed. So - since we are already past the point of no return, we might as well make the best of it and live it up! Too late now. The days remaining until humans are extinct is set! I have been alive now for five decades and have heard it all. In the 60's and 70's the defined catastrophes were nuclear holocaust, lack of oil reserves (oil was suppose to run out by the year 2000), Global cooling (the coming ice age), Lake Erie was a "dead lake" (it would take until the year 2000 to clean it up) and over population leading to mas starvation and disease. In the 80's times changed a little. The decade rang in some new and a few old catastrophes: nuclear holocaust remained while aids was a new catastrophe set to surely result in mass death and destruction. Ah, then we have the glorious 90's: Global Warming, The Ozone and Y2K - oh and my favorite Hale Bop. Finally, in the 21st century comes Global Warming, the bird flu and radical Islam. As a scientist, my analysis of the last five decades reveals that every generation has to have at least one major catastrophe that will alter mankind - one that will devastate the world as we know it. As with ancient humans who were afraid of the God of the Volcano, I can only come to the conclusion that man is not secure without a "God of something" whose power will one day destroy him. Today it is the "God of MAN-MADE Global Warming" Let us all lay down our money and lifestyles at the altar of the God of MAN-MADE Global Warming and perhaps he will have mercy on us. All hail to the God of MAN-MADE Global Warming - the most high. Fortunately, I have more common sense then that and, therefore, I refuse to submit to the God of MAN-MADE global warming. I want real scientific evidence not stupid hype. If I wanted hype and emotion, I would go get my palm read. Oh yes, I am not a scientist paid off by "Big Oil". That being said, who pays those who support the man-made global warming alarmists? BP? you mean the company that wants to increase it's market share in alternate fuels? GE? you mean the company that wants to increase it's sales in those mercury filled light bulbs? (I use them, they save a lot of money) When it existed, Enron? the company that wanted to increase it's market share in expensive solar and wind technologies? Farmers who make more money on their corn? "Green Credit Companies" that make their money on the hype? etc... etc... etc... Yah. Life as we know it is over. There’s no use, we’ve destroyed our planet. The Hale Bop dudes had the right idea - they just killed themselves over the the wrong catastrophe. I mean a single molecule in our enormous atmosphere has increased by about 0.010% - that is one hundredth of one percent - and we’re doomed. So - since we are already past the point of no return, we might as well make the best of it and live it up! Too late now. The days remaining until humans are extinct is set!

I have been alive now for five decades and have heard it all. In the 60’s and 70’s the defined catastrophes were nuclear holocaust, lack of oil reserves (oil was suppose to run out by the year 2000), Global cooling (the coming ice age), Lake Erie was a “dead lake” (it would take until the year 2000 to clean it up) and over population leading to mas starvation and disease. In the 80’s times changed a little. The decade rang in some new and a few old catastrophes: nuclear holocaust remained while aids was a new catastrophe set to surely result in mass death and destruction. Ah, then we have the glorious 90’s: Global Warming, The Ozone and Y2K - oh and my favorite Hale Bop. Finally, in the 21st century comes Global Warming, the bird flu and radical Islam.

As a scientist, my analysis of the last five decades reveals that every generation has to have at least one major catastrophe that will alter mankind - one that will devastate the world as we know it. As with ancient humans who were afraid of the God of the Volcano, I can only come to the conclusion that man is not secure without a “God of something” whose power will one day destroy him. Today it is the “God of MAN-MADE Global Warming” Let us all lay down our money and lifestyles at the altar of the God of MAN-MADE Global Warming and perhaps he will have mercy on us. All hail to the God of MAN-MADE Global Warming - the most high.

Fortunately, I have more common sense then that and, therefore, I refuse to submit to the God of MAN-MADE global warming. I want real scientific evidence not stupid hype. If I wanted hype and emotion, I would go get my palm read. Oh yes, I am not a scientist paid off by “Big Oil”. That being said, who pays those who support the man-made global warming alarmists? BP? you mean the company that wants to increase it’s market share in alternate fuels? GE? you mean the company that wants to increase it’s sales in those mercury filled light bulbs? (I use them, they save a lot of money) When it existed, Enron? the company that wanted to increase it’s market share in expensive solar and wind technologies? Farmers who make more money on their corn? “Green Credit Companies” that make their money on the hype? etc… etc… etc…

]]> By: Hank Roberts http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5681 Hank Roberts Mon, 17 Sep 2007 14:48:49 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5681 Joe makes a good point in his third piece: "It would also be a great irony if conservative Denyers — who are blocking serious mitigation today because they don’t like (a certain kind of) government intervention in our lives — ended up forcing the country into far more government intervention in the near future." Ha. And a far greater irony if these folks are being used by those happy to have already begun imposing an iron-gauntlet government --- they will need a permanent state of crisis as an excuse to maintain and extend the interventionist government we're wrestling with now, eh? Permanent war, permanent Cheney? Joe makes a good point in his third piece:
“It would also be a great irony if conservative Denyers — who are blocking serious mitigation today because they don’t like (a certain kind of) government intervention in our lives — ended up forcing the country into far more government intervention in the near future.”

Ha. And a far greater irony if these folks are being used by those happy to have already begun imposing an iron-gauntlet government — they will need a permanent state of crisis as an excuse to maintain and extend the interventionist government we’re wrestling with now, eh?

Permanent war, permanent Cheney?

]]> By: Timothy Chase http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5710 Timothy Chase Tue, 18 Sep 2007 12:03:00 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5710 The longer we wait to do something about climate change, the worse it will get and the more likely that it will lead to government intervention on a larger scale - this is something which I would most certainly agree with. But depending upon the severity of the crisis and the potential for a severe economic crisis, the more likely that people will be willing to give up their liberties in exchange for the promises of any demagogue who promises to do something - however unrealistic. Furthermore, a free society which preserves the independence of the scientific enterprise and preserves economic freedom will be more likely to react rationally than a demagogue who has no genuine interest in trying to deal with severe climate change or the resulting economic crisis, but who is far more likely to be intent upon simply maintaining power. And make no mistake - if we are talking about droughts on the scale of what is projected under BAU in formerly good farmlands (e.g., with the US no longer able to grow wheat in the lower 48) and rising sea-levels due resulting from the nonlinearity of the response of glaciers Greenland and the West Antarctic Peninsula being in the neighborhood of several meters with so much of humanity living near the coastlines (roughly half of humanity lives within 100 km of the coastlines), there will be a severe and prolonged economic crisis. At that point, the crisis will be much more severe and prolonged than it needs to be, we will have far less resources with which to respond and we will be less able to respond rationally with what little resources we will have. And we aren't simply speaking of one nation of many who will be experiencing a severe reduction in their resources. It is already believed that reductions in resources due to climate change is making war more likely - as in the case of Somalia. For those who genuine care about the freedom of future generations and the conditions under which they live, it is imperative that we start doing something about climate change now. The longer we wait to do something about climate change, the worse it will get and the more likely that it will lead to government intervention on a larger scale - this is something which I would most certainly agree with. But depending upon the severity of the crisis and the potential for a severe economic crisis, the more likely that people will be willing to give up their liberties in exchange for the promises of any demagogue who promises to do something - however unrealistic. Furthermore, a free society which preserves the independence of the scientific enterprise and preserves economic freedom will be more likely to react rationally than a demagogue who has no genuine interest in trying to deal with severe climate change or the resulting economic crisis, but who is far more likely to be intent upon simply maintaining power.

And make no mistake - if we are talking about droughts on the scale of what is projected under BAU in formerly good farmlands (e.g., with the US no longer able to grow wheat in the lower 48) and rising sea-levels due resulting from the nonlinearity of the response of glaciers Greenland and the West Antarctic Peninsula being in the neighborhood of several meters with so much of humanity living near the coastlines (roughly half of humanity lives within 100 km of the coastlines), there will be a severe and prolonged economic crisis.

At that point, the crisis will be much more severe and prolonged than it needs to be, we will have far less resources with which to respond and we will be less able to respond rationally with what little resources we will have. And we aren’t simply speaking of one nation of many who will be experiencing a severe reduction in their resources. It is already believed that reductions in resources due to climate change is making war more likely - as in the case of Somalia. For those who genuine care about the freedom of future generations and the conditions under which they live, it is imperative that we start doing something about climate change now.

]]> By: Aaron http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5718 Aaron Tue, 18 Sep 2007 17:22:02 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5718 I am appalled that "Science" is now afraid of being called "alarmist." There was a time when raising the alarm was seen a good thing - it allowed your group to survive. If you raised the alarm in time, you city could put out the fire before the fire engulfed the city. A few false alarms are the price we pay for staying alive. More folks should spend some time fighting fires. It is amazing how fast a fire can explode out of control. Fighting fires reminds us that we must catch problems early on. Someone must raise the alarm as soon as possible. Better to raise the alarm on a little fire that can be put out in half a minute with a bucket of water, than let the fire grow into a firestorm that consumes the countryside and destroys whole communities. Right now global warming is our "FIRE", and it is time to raise the alarm. If people act as the alarm raised, then there will be less of a long term problem. That does not mean that it was a false alarm, that means that it was a good alarm, people took action, and survived. That is what raising the alarm is all about. Raise the alarm on global warming. I am appalled that “Science” is now afraid of being called “alarmist.” There was a time when raising the alarm was seen a good thing - it allowed your group to survive. If you raised the alarm in time, you city could put out the fire before the fire engulfed the city. A few false alarms are the price we pay for staying alive.

More folks should spend some time fighting fires. It is amazing how fast a fire can explode out of control. Fighting fires reminds us that we must catch problems early on. Someone must raise the alarm as soon as possible. Better to raise the alarm on a little fire that can be put out in half a minute with a bucket of water, than let the fire grow into a firestorm that consumes the countryside and destroys whole communities. Right now global warming is our “FIRE”, and it is time to raise the alarm.

If people act as the alarm raised, then there will be less of a long term problem. That does not mean that it was a false alarm, that means that it was a good alarm, people took action, and survived. That is what raising the alarm is all about. Raise the alarm on global warming.

]]> By: exusian http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5725 exusian Tue, 18 Sep 2007 20:50:03 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-5725 Re David D.: For a self-descried "scientist" you sure use a lot of off-the-shelf denier rhetoric and precious little--zero, actually--science in your comment. Re David D.: For a self-descried “scientist” you sure use a lot of off-the-shelf denier rhetoric and precious little–zero, actually–science in your comment.

]]> By: Gary Chambers http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-7269 Gary Chambers Fri, 14 Dec 2007 14:40:07 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-7269 Thinking out Loud (Gores Fools) This old earth has been through this warming cycle hundreds of times since its birth. There were no humans around most of the times when it turned from the freezing ice age to the hot steaming grounds of volcanic heat. There were no automobiles spewing greenhouse gases, but there were millions of prehistoric animals producing large amounts of greenhouse gases. This planet was like a giant greenhouse several times throughout history. We never were sure what happened to the dinosaurs, but we know they weren’t smart enough to protect their selves from the ice age, falling meteoroids or a pandemic virus. We do know that we are smarter than animals and we humans can adapt to any climate on this earth and probably could adapt to a lot of other planets in our solar system. The humans who are not so smart are the ones who listen to a character on a soapbox carrying a sign and yelling that the end of the world is coming. This fool thinks we can change the climate of this vast earth like changing a flat tire. I cannot believe that this man was awarded the Noble prize for his prediction of doom. I guess he didn’t read the same science fiction books that I read when I was a boy. Most everything I read is no longer fiction. Man has turned all those Jules Verne stories into reality. Any thing a man has imagined and dreamed about seems too eventually become reality, because man has a knack for invention. I can remember the books I read back in the 1950’s about the cities in the future covered with large glass bubbles and men and women traveling from planet to planet. Man has not developed the God like powers to change a natural evolving climate. A smart man swims with the current. Jules Verne should have got the Nobel Prize, not a fool that has filled his Ship with fools. GC Thinking out Loud
(Gores Fools)
This old earth has been through this warming cycle hundreds of times since its birth. There were no humans around most of the times when it turned from the freezing ice age to the hot steaming grounds of volcanic heat. There were no automobiles spewing greenhouse gases, but there were millions of prehistoric animals producing large amounts of greenhouse gases. This planet was like a giant greenhouse several times throughout history. We never were sure what happened to the dinosaurs, but we know they weren’t smart enough to protect their selves from the ice age, falling meteoroids or a pandemic virus. We do know that we are smarter than animals and we humans can adapt to any climate on this earth and probably could adapt to a lot of other planets in our solar system. The humans who are not so smart are the ones who listen to a character on a soapbox carrying a sign and yelling that the end of the world is coming. This fool thinks we can change the climate of this vast earth like changing a flat tire. I cannot believe that this man was awarded the Noble prize for his prediction of doom. I guess he didn’t read the same science fiction books that I read when I was a boy.
Most everything I read is no longer fiction. Man has turned all those Jules Verne stories into reality. Any thing a man has imagined and dreamed about seems too eventually become reality, because man has a knack for invention. I can remember the books I read back in the 1950’s about the cities in the future covered with large glass bubbles and men and women traveling from planet to planet.
Man has not developed the God like powers to change a natural evolving climate.
A smart man swims with the current.
Jules Verne should have got the Nobel Prize, not a fool that has filled his Ship with fools.
GC

]]> By: Jeff http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-13696 Jeff Fri, 30 May 2008 16:45:52 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/23/are-scientists-overestimating-or-underestimating-climate-change-part-iii/#comment-13696 I have been debating denailists on a forum for about 6 months now. Its interesting to me because as I really delve into the science, it weakens their arguments and even people with more advanced degrees that mine, go to rhetoric. Good science is the denialist weakness. But the interesting thing is this rhetoric appeals to people who may not understand the science. I have been debating denailists on a forum for about 6 months now. Its interesting to me because as I really delve into the science, it weakens their arguments and even people with more advanced degrees that mine, go to rhetoric. Good science is the denialist weakness. But the interesting thing is this rhetoric appeals to people who may not understand the science.

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