“The Web's most influential climate-change blogger” — Time Magazine A Project of Center for American Progress Action Fund

Archive for September, 2007

Global Warming and Wildfires: Senate Hearing Today at 3.

Monday, September 24th, 2007

covermed.gifGlobal warming makes wildfires more likely and more destructive — an amplifying climate feedback that releases more carbon into the atmosphere. The full committee of the Senate for Energy and Natural Resources is having a hearing on the subject today. You can get live video here — click on Live Webcast.

I’m looking forward to this hearing since one of the witnesses is Dr. Thomas Swetnam, Director of the Laboratory of Tree Ring Research and Professor of Dendochronology, University of Arizona. He coathored the August 2006 Science cover story, “Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity” (subs. req’d). The abstract is viewable online — here is the conclusion:

(more…)

NY Times slams ethanol

Monday, September 24th, 2007

ethanol_corn-pump.jpgThe ethanol backlash continues with a New York Times editorial titled The High Costs of Ethanol:

The distortions in agricultural production are startling. Corn prices are up about 50 percent from last year, while soybean prices are projected to rise up to 30 percent in the coming year, as farmers have replaced soy with corn in their fields. The increasing cost of animal feed is raising the prices of dairy and poultry products….

A recent report by the OECD, an economic forum of rich nations, called on the United States and other industrialized nations to eliminate subsidies for the production of ethanol which, the report said, is driving up food costs, threatening natural habitats and imposing other environmental costs. “The overall environmental impacts of ethanol and biodiesel can very easily exceed those of petrol and mineral diesel,” it said.

(more…)

Arctic Ice shrinks by an Alaska plus a Texas

Monday, September 24th, 2007

Hitting a record low on September 16, 2007, the Arctic lost half a million square miles of ice compared to its last record low just two years ago.

arctic.gif

For all the details, check out the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) website, which notes “the Northwest Passage is still open, but is starting to refreeze. We are still on track for an ice free Arctic by 2030, decades ahead of the climate models.

UPDATE: I omitted the fact cited in the headline: Compared to its “long-term average minimum, based on averaging data from 1979 to 2000,” the Arctic has shrunk one million square miles, “an area approximately equal to the size of Alaska and Texas combined.” My apologies for the confusion.

Bush to World: Nothing up my Sleeve

Sunday, September 23rd, 2007

bullwinkle1.jpgBush may be hosting a climate summit this week, but “what he will not do, officials said, is chart any shift in policies.” Specifically, the Washington Post reports:

Top Bush administration officials said the president is not planning to alter his opposition to mandatory limits on greenhouse gases or to stray from his emphasis on promoting new technologies, especially for nuclear power and for the storage of carbon dioxide produced by coal plants.

This is straight from the Frank Luntz playbook on how to seem like you care about the climate when you don’t: Technology, technology, technology. Yada. Yada. Yada. Delay, delay, delay.

Bush is no climate magician. He will not be pulling a rabbit out of a hat this week. Bush has nothing up his sleeve — you can’t solve the climate problem without mandatory limits.

James Connaughton, head of the president’s Council on Environmental Quality, said Bush’s goal is to aim for a “solid handoff to the next president, regardless of party.” Yeah, just like Iraq. Run out the clock.

The article did offer one (bizarre) new line of argument — why the administration opposes a cap-and-trade system:

(more…)

In case you missed the offsets hearing….

Sunday, September 23rd, 2007

from July, you can finally read the testimony at the committee web site. The Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming has also revamped their site with some nice graphics and info. Check it out.

Global Warming’s Toll on the Economy

Sunday, September 23rd, 2007

John D. Podesta, President and CEO of the Center for American Progress, gave a talk last week to National Association of State Treasures. Here are some key points:

You have seen the overdue shift in the global warming debate: from whether climate change is real to a sense of urgency about how to address it.

The science and the economics are conclusive: doing nothing about global warming presents a far greater cost than addressing it.

Global warming, if not reversed, will consume our national resources and threaten the well-being of future generations, and volatile energy prices and more extreme weather will devastate our economy.

The urgency of this issue demands a president and a Congress willing to make climate challenge a centerpiece not only of their energy policy but also of their economic program, to produce broad-based growth and sustain American economic leadership in the 21st century.

Society faces mounting physical risks, and businesses face grave financial risks if they fail to adapt to a changing policy climate because of the rapidly changing physical climate.

The challenge we face is nothing short of transforming our economy from a high-carbon model–which is putting both our economy and planet at risk–to a low-carbon model that can create new markets and a healthier environment.

He has an important point to make on the politics:

(more…)

Amazing AP article on sea level rise

Saturday, September 22nd, 2007

sea-rise.jpgThe AP just released the following story:

Global warming — through a combination of melting glaciers, disappearing ice sheets and warmer waters expanding — is expected to cause oceans to rise by one meter, or about 39 inches. It will happen regardless of any future actions to curb greenhouse gases, several leading scientists say. And it will reshape the nation.

Wow! The first amazing thing is the confidence with which AP makes a statement beyond the IPCC’s scientific consensus. This is what most of the experts I spoke to for my book said, and I’m glad to see it in print (kudos to AP reporter Seth Borenstein):

Few of the more than two dozen climate experts interviewed disagree with the one-meter projection. Some believe it could happen in 50 years, others say 100, and still others say 150.

The second amazing thing is this quote:

Even John Christy at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, a scientist often quoted by global warming skeptics, said he figures the seas will rise at least 16 inches by the end of the century. But he tells people to prepare for a rise of about three feet just in case.

Looks like Christy needs to straighten Lomborg out.

The third amazing thing — and the one I (and I think Hansen) would take some exception with is “It will happen regardless of any future actions to curb greenhouse gases.” Still, Borenstein gets a stunning quote here:

(more…)

A letter from a young reader

Saturday, September 22nd, 2007

A friend of mine “assigned” my book to his 15-year-old daughter over the summer. When she was done, she wrote me a letter. The letter really touched me, and I thought I would share it here. The letter gives me some hope about the next generation — and boosts my desire not to leave them an irreversibly ruined world. They deserve a fighting chance to undo our mistakes. Anyway, here is the letter:

(more…)

Some useful, off-topic blog posts

Saturday, September 22nd, 2007

Once again, I am writing this mostly off-topic post as part of a blog post writing contest — but I am hoping to become a better blogger and bring in some new readers. I have to pick the best of the submissions on “Tips & Tricks” (the full list is here) –and I’ve tried to pick ones that will be of most interest to general readers (and I included mine since you gotta vote for yourself, no?):

Must Read Climate Report from Lehman Brother

Friday, September 21st, 2007

lehman.gifLehman Brothers has just released a terrific report, The Business of Climate Change II. The theme is, “Policy is accelerating, with major implications for companies and investors,” but the piece has a lot of breadth, with cogent comments on everything from the social/damage cost of carbon to auctioning vs. granfathering to the Stern Report. Here are some extended excerpts:

What are the chances for a global climate agreement?

The probability of some sort of international greenhouse-gas-limiting agreement in the next three to five years involving the US, China, and perhaps India, which earlier this year we put at 50%, will continue to rise. We now put the probability at around 75%.

Why does climate change matter to business now?

Many clients have asked for our view on the argument that, even assuming that scientists’ projections of the likely effects of climate change are broadly correct, the effects will be felt only slowly, with little effect on asset prices over most investors’ time horizons.

We judge this argument as flawed, for three, linked, reasons. First, markets anticipate even slow-moving variables, such as climate change. Second, policy made in the name of climate change could have an almost immediate, up-front effect on asset prices. And third, markets anticipate policy itself. In this way, expected future effects of climate change become brought right forward to the present.

Fundamentally, the economic case for considering climate change ultimately depends on the science. Our judgement is that the science will increasingly be seen as broadly correct; that this view will be progressively accepted by the weight of market opinion; and that, while the adjustment of asset prices has begun, full adjustment will take years, rather than months.

What is the “social” or “damage” cost of carbon?

(more…)

New Interactive Climate Maps

Friday, September 21st, 2007

The Center for American Progress has put together two interactive maps in advance of next week’s climate meetings. They allow you to

Hover over a country to see how many metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions it emits per capita, or how many millions of tons it emits total, and whether it has ratified the Kyoto Accord. Invitees to Bush’s September 28th major emitters meeting are also marked.

I think you’ll find them useful tools.

Climate News Roundup

Friday, September 21st, 2007

Greenland ice melt shocks scientistsThe Oregonian. A good article on the subject, with the added bonus of an explanation of how ice loss in the Arctic will affect the U.S.’s climate:

The melting removes an insulating blanket from the ocean surface, releasing warmth from the water into the cold air above as towering columns of warmer air.

Those columns appear to reorient global air flows the way a boulder falling into a stream reorients the current, said Jacob Sewall, a professor of geosciences at Virginia Tech, who has used atmospheric models to study the effect. The result is that the stream that carries storms over the West Coast of North America shifts north, turning much of California drier, and the Northwest wetter.

Calif. lawmaker chides EPA for approving coal plantThe Boston Globe. “Remarkably, EPA refused to consider the global warming effects of the plant or to require any measures to mitigate that harm, contravening a Clean Air Act mandate and ignoring EPA’s ample discretionary authority to act,” wrote Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) to EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson.

Hefty Rebate For Backyard Wind Turbines In California
– Environmental News Network. Homeowners who install a turbine that costs between $12,000 and $15,000 to purchase and install and is rated at 1.8 kiloWatts, are eligible for a $4,100 rebate from the state of California.

Capping Carbon: Is Nothing Better than Something?

Friday, September 21st, 2007

How fearsome must the headlines be about tomorrow before
people change their ways today?

– Nancy Gibbs, TIME

glass1.JPGIn Greenland today, the ice is thawing at a pace that is alarming climate scientists. Meantime in Washington D.C., Congress remains frozen on the issue of carbon pricing. And that may be a good thing.

Carbon pricing, as most readers of Climate Progress know, is the idea that some portion of the costs of greenhouse gas emissions should be reflected in the price consumers pay for carbon-intensive fuels. The energy that is causing global climate change would cost more than the energy that isn’t, and the marketplace would become the ally of climate stabilization.

There are two schemes on the table. The first is a carbon tax — simple, straightforward and, according to conventional wisdom, political suicide. The second approach is carbon trading. Carbon emissions would be capped; polluters would buy and sell emission permits. Carbon trading is more complex and would take longer to make a difference, but because it is not a tax, it appears to be the favored approach in Congress.

Several cap-and-trade bills have been introduced in Congress, some setting tougher goals than others. The word on the street is that the leading bill will be proposed soon by Senators Warner and Lieberman. It reportedly will call for a 15% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020, compared to current levels. Therein lies the rub. Is the glass (of melted ice) half empty or half full?

(more…)

A methane feedback from the past strikes again

Thursday, September 20th, 2007

What triggered the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) about 55 million years ago, which saw the fastest period of warming documented in Earth’s geological history? The PETM is associated with a rapid rise in greenhouse gases, particularly methane — but the big question is where did the methane come from?

bog.jpgThe most common answer has been the ocean (methane hydrates) but new research in Nature, (subs. req’d) casts doubt on the ocean theory, finding chemical evidence instead that the methane came from terrestrial sources, bogs, which were themselves stimulated by rising temperatures — an amplifying feedback. The lead author says:

“A lot of temperate and polar wetlands are going to be wetter, and of course warmer as well [because of current climate change]. That implies a switch to more anaerobic conditions which are more likely to release methane. That’s what’s predicted, and that would be a positive feedback – and we have evidence now that this is what happened.”

Indeed, research from last year found “thawing Siberian bogs are releasing more of the greenhouse gas methane than previously believed.” Why should we care about the source of the PETM?

(more…)

Climate News Recap

Thursday, September 20th, 2007

The renewable energy futureLA Times. “As Los Angeles creaks through its driest year on record and nervously awaits its next explosive wildfire, many wonder if global warming is already taking a toll.” Duh. Anyway, a pretty good article on the prospects for renewables in California.

Evidence of global warming surrounds a skepticSeattle Post-Intelligencer. Another good dissing of Lomborg, focusing on forest loss in the West. No matter what Steve says, I say you can’t have too many!

Forest nations want billions for not loggingThe Sydney Morning Herald. A multibillion-dollar plan to protect forests and reduce global warming is to be backed by an alliance of nations that are home to more than 80 per cent of the world’s tropical rainforest.

Seeking Reader Opinions: Should USGBC Certify a 15,000-sq.-ft home as green?

Thursday, September 20th, 2007

green-mansion.jpgA “speculative 15,000 square foot mansion in Manalapan, Fla., will be the first home of its size to be certified green by the U.S. Green Building Council and the Florida Green Building Council.”

Is that a good idea for USGBC? That’s my question to you. Obviously people are going to build big homes–and it is better if they have green features. But should USGBC single out such “eco-mansions” for positive recognition?

On the big side, the mansion has:

… eight bedrooms, 11 bathrooms, two elevators, two laundry rooms, two wine cellars (one for red, one white), a movie theater and guesthouse.

On the green side, the mansion has a:

(more…)

Alan Greenspan is Very Overrated: Part II, Global Warming

Thursday, September 20th, 2007

greenspan7big.jpgIf you thought Greenspan was confused about energy (see Part I), his discussion of global warming in The Age of Turbulence is downright stupefying. He opens well:

There can be very little doubt that global warming is real and man-made. (p. 454)

But the next sentence is (I kid you not)

We may have to rename Glacier National Park when its glaciers disappear, in what now looks to be 2030, according to park scientists.

That’s what all the fuss is about — we’ll have to rename one of our national parks in 23 years. This is the Lomborg view. The movie version might be called A “Minor Inconvenience” — That’s Our Truth.

Greenspan then immediately launches into an extended discussion trashing cap-and-trade systems, ultimately claiming:

There is no effective way to meaningfully reduce emissions without negatively impacting a large part of an economy. Net, it is a tax. If the cap is low enough to make a meaningful inroad into CO2 emissions, permits will become expensive and large numbers of companies will experience cost increases that make them less competitive. Jobs will be lost and real incomes of workers constrained.

Unless of course jobs are created in the clean energy industry and people can balance the higher cost of energy with a more efficient use of it, as California has done. That Greenspan does not like a high price for CO2 is not surprising — how much is it really worth to avoid renaming Glacier National Park, anyway? What is stunning is that he makes this particular argument against carbon prices in the very same chapter he calls for a $3 a gallon gasoline tax!

The gas tax is both necessary and good: “we need significantly higher gasoline prices to wean us off gasoline-powered motor vehicles…. The expectation of higher gasoline prices through taxes … would galvanize large technological breakthroughs in the production of ethanol” especially cellulosic ethanol from biomass. “Alternatively, if ethanol fails and gasoline prices are high enough, plug-in hybrids will significantly displace petroleum consumption over time.” (p. 461) Dr. Greenspan — techno-optimist!

But just 6 pages earlier, his alter ego, techno-pessimist Mr. Alan, was calling a carbon price both unnecessary and evil:

(more…)

Climate News Roundup

Wednesday, September 19th, 2007

Damage to the planet ‘is already inevitable’ – The Times online (UK). “Just eight years are left for the world’s carbon dioxide emissions to peak if there is any hope of limiting temperature rises to no more than 2C (3.6F) over the next century.” Not gonna happen, if the Deniers have there way. And that means: “The choice is now between a future with a damaged world and a future with a severely damaged world,” said Professor Martin Parry, of the Met Office.

EU to give poor nations at least €50 million to deal with climate changeInternational Herald Tribune. The article suggests that much of the money is for adaptation (i.e. “we’re sorry we screwed you”): “to help them cope with more frequent storms, floods and drought linked to man-made climate change.” On the other hand, some funds will go to “helping poor countries set up programs that could cash in on rich nations’ carbon offsets.” Now we’re talkin’! I wanna get me some of that offset money.

Effort to Get Companies to Disclose Climate RiskNew York Times. “Two environmental groups and the financial officers of 10 states and New York City are asking the Securities and Exchange Commission to require companies to disclose the risks that climate change may pose to their bottom lines.”

Arctic summer ice thickness halves to 1 meter – Environmental News Network. “All of these areas have previously had two meters of ice.” More evidence the Arctic will be ice free by 2030.

Earthbeat Interview now online

Wednesday, September 19th, 2007

My discussion with Mike Tidwell on the latest in climate change news is now online here. Even better for Climate Progress readers — who get more than their fill of me — is the first interview on the show with Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

If you want the latest on the stunning loss of ice in the Arctic from one of the country’s foremost authorities, that interview is a terrific place to start.

Tom Friedman is back — and he’s pessimistic

Wednesday, September 19th, 2007

First the good news from the New York Times:

We have ended TimesSelect. All of our Op-Ed and news columns are now available free of charge. Additionally, The New York Times Archive is available free back to 1987.

Good for them. Interestingly, even though I had paid my money to get TimesSelect, I pretty much stopped reading the stuff behind the barrier because I couldn’t connect Climate Progress readers (i.e. you) to the material. The NYT had basically taken some of their best columnists out of the global discussion. Now they are back.

doha2.jpgFriedman has a new piece titled “Doha and Dalian” — “Doha [top] is the capital of Qatar, a tiny state east of Saudi Arabia. Dalian [bottom] is in northeast China and is one of China’s Silicon Valley.” Their growth rates have surprised even itinerant Tom:

dalian-skyline-1.jpgIn Doha, since I was last there, a skyline that looks like a mini-Manhattan has sprouted from the desert. Whatever construction cranes are not in China must be in Doha today. This once sleepy harbor now has a profile of skyscrapers, thanks to a huge injection of oil and gas revenues. Dalian, with six million people, already had a mini-Manhattan when I was last here. It seems to have grown two more since — including a gleaming new convention complex built on a man-made peninsula.

What does this have to do with climate change? Friedman explains:

(more…)