Climate Progress

Lots of experts are weighing in as the Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end (today). One of my favs, Jeff Masters, summarizes it this way:

The Atlantic hurricane season of 2007 is over, and it was a strange one. For the second straight year, we had a near average season, despite pre-season predictions of a very active season.

Before going further, I should point out that hurricane forecasting experts tend to be on the wild side. The dean of forecasters, Bill Gray, has become a cranky global warming denier — you can read his detailed explanation of the 2007 season here. Masters, on the other hand, flew into hurricanes, of his own free will, for four years (!), sans parachutes (!!), until he was nearly killed flying into Hurricane Hugo, in “the most harrowing flight ever conducted by the NOAA hurricane hunters”.

On the more normal side, Chris Mooney, science writer and author of a good recent book on hurricanes and global warming, has his post mortem here.

Now the 2007 season did set a lot of records, as Masters notes:

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NASA’s James Hansen has apologized for his coal train/death train analogy (discussed here), in a post titled “Averting Our Eyes.” While I didn’t think the National Mining Association deserved an apology, Hansen came to see that others were legitimately offended:

I regret that my words caused pain to some readers. I hope that they will accept my apology for having caused discomfort, an apology that is heartfelt.

At the same time, Hansen is — like all of us — searching for the words, the metaphors, the pictures, really, anything that can help the public grasp the genuine scale of the dangers we face:

Burning all fossil fuels, if the CO2 is released into the air, would destroy creation, the planet with its animal and plant life as it has existed for the past several thousand years, the time of civilization, the Holocene, the period of relative climate stability…. We cannot pretend that we do not know the consequences of burning all fossil fuels.

I think that we still have a long way to go in making the danger clear, in part because of the inertia of the climate system and the danger of passing tipping points — points at which little or no additional forcing is needed to cause large, relatively rapid, undesirable effects….

We cannot avert our eyes and pretend that we do not understand the consequences of continued “business as usual.”

… the special interests have been cleverer than us, preventing the public from seeing the crisis that should be in view. It is hard for me to think of a different equally poignant example of the foreseeable consequence faced by fellow creatures on the planet. Suggestions are welcome.

Hansen does have more to say in his apology:

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International consulting firm McKinsey & Co. has released a must-read study concluding:

The United States could reduce GHG emissions in 2030 by 3.0 to 4.5 gigatons of CO₂e using tested approaches and high-potential emerging technologies. These reductions would involve pursuing a wide array of abatement options with marginal costs less than $50 per ton, with the average net cost to the economy being far lower if the nation can capture sizable gains from energy efficiency. Achieving these reductions at the lowest cost to the economy, however, will require strong, coordinated, economy-wide action that begins in the near future.

Yes — existing or in-the-pipeline technology can get us very far for the next quarter century (duh!).

Previously McKinsey had released a comprehensive cost curve for global greenhouse gas reduction measures (reprinted below, original article here), which came to the stunning conclusion that the measures needed to stabilize emissions at 450 pppm have a net cost near zero (the negative-cost efficiency measures just about compensating for the higher cost fuel switching).

[This makes a great powerpoint slide for talks.]

A few key points on the new study:

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A few weeks ago, one of the presidential candidates’ advisors challenged a group of climate leaders to describe America’s future. His challenge triggered a flurry of e-mails as we attempted to articulate a vision.

We talked about carbon caps and price signals and new investments in R&D. That’s fine, the advisor responded, but what it the vision? What is America’s perfect future?

I’m not sure we ever satisfactorily answered this very good question, but I found myself trying to describe what America might look like 10, 20 and 40 years from now.

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Autumn rain down 90 percent in China rice belt - Reuters. “Large areas of south China are suffering from serious drought, with water levels on two major rivers in rice-growing provinces dropping to historic lows.”

Africa “Forgotten Continent” in Climate Fight - Reuters. “The UN’s top climate change official said on Sunday … that damage projected for Africa by the UN climate panel would justify tougher world action to slow global warming even without considering likely disruptions to other parts of the planet.” [One reason why it’s crucial that we pay attention to developing countries as we negotiate international steps.]

Japan plans to buy carbon credits from Hungary to achieve Kyoto Treaty goal - International Herald Tribune. “Japan is falling far behind its Kyoto commitments to cut its emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to 6 percent below its 1990 by 2012. Emissions in 2006, for instance, were 6.4 percent above 1990 levels…. Tokyo, which is putting together an action plan to meet the Kyoto requirements, currently plans to use carbon credits bought overseas to lower its emissions by 1.6 percent below 1990 levels. The additional 4.4 percent must be cut by other methods.”

Japan Sets Asian Benchmarck for Energy Efficiency - Voice of America. “Technology is one of Japan’s greatest strengths in conserving energy…. And yet, for all its good intentions, the country is falling far behind in its promise to cut its own emissions.” Wait, you mean technology by itself won’t solve the global warming problem? Who knew?

London could soon replace California as the electric car capital of the world. Thanks in large part to Mayor “Red Ken” Livingstone, who enacted London’s much criticized congestion charge policy in 2003.

The policy, which exempts electric cars from hefty daily taxation, is resulting in increasingly significant vehicle choices for English consumers. India’s Reva was first into the market with the G-Wiz. The French Mega City appeared next from NICE (No Internal Combustion Engine). Sakura Battery Co is offering a line of EVs, including the Italian Maranello4 microcar. Despite being low-speed vehicles about which safety concerns have been raised, they have months long waiting lists. Limited ranged, lead-acid battery based cars, they have nonetheless proven the demand of even less than perfect electric vehicles.

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In true journalistic fashion, Andy Revkin of the New York Times dug deeper into the controversial coal campaign run in Kansas after the state rejected a new coal-plant. Curiously, he surfaced with some interesting investment numbers with regards to Venezuelan coal.

For background, see Grist and Climate Progress’s discussion. In short, after the state refused to allow the construction of a new coal-fired plant, a local utility conspired with a larger energy firm to run a smear campaign against the decision, accusing it of supporting foreign energy enemies like Hugo Chavez.

In more recent news, Revkin has posted his correspondence with Peabody Energy, the world’s biggest private coal company. Ends up, they’ve a 25.5 stake in a Venezuelan coal mine.

Revkin pried, and this is what he was told: (more…)

Climate Progress is happy to introduce Earl Killian as a guest blogger. If his name sounds familiar, that’s because he’s been a regular commenter here — so yes, it can happen, commenters can become posters. You can read his full bio here. Welcome, Earl!

Joe has asked me to contribute to Climate Progress, and specifically to report on what is going on in California to address global warming. As one website puts it, “Everybody is talking about global warming. But California is actually doing something about it.” Quite a few states have programs as well, but I do think it is fair to say California is a leader on this issue; it has been extremely active, and a bewildering number of programs are already in place. In this post (Part I) and a follow-up, I will summarize several of the most important, and then I plan to follow up with more detailed descriptions of individual items over time so as to give an idea of the breadth of attack upon the problem interspersed with current California news. I believe that California’s actions can serve as a guide to other states and the Federal government.

Why should we listen to California? Because they have been a leader on environmental matters for decades. Consider just the remarkable results of their multi-decade energy efficiency efforts (click on this figure).

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It is yours for the taking, since he has offered perhaps the dumbest bet in TV pundit history (if not the entire history of the universe), on his hopefully soon-to-be-axed MSNBC show:

Here is my guess, and I know that I’m right. I will bet my car, in fact. Bush will come out, this president when he leaves office, will come out in the next decade or so as a strong advocate on behalf of ending global warming. He will be, he will have an environmentally conscious post presidency.

Yes, and monkeys will fly out of my…. But, seriously. Tucker, don’t give up your dancing career yet — it shows more promise than your current one.

Bush has so far had an environmentally unconscious presidency. The only planet on which Bush could become an environmentalist is Htrae (aka the Bizzaro World).

Tucker isn’t the only one who is in an alternate universe. In the same discussion, columnist Bob Franken says — I kid you not:

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I wrote about this important American Meteorological Society seminar earlier.

Now, you can access both the video AND the presentations (both HTML and PDF) here. In fact, going through the presentations while playing the video will really bring you up to speed on what is happening now — and what is likely to happen in the future — for both Arctic Sea Ice, the great ice sheets, and sea level rise.