Comments on: Another big climate bet — Of Ice and Men http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:49:55 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: amoeba http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-39028 amoeba Sun, 12 Apr 2009 08:38:32 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-39028 Ron, Speaking as a non-expert. It is my understanding that the interannual variability [noise] is far larger than the climate-change related signature. If it were larger, nobody would voice your opinions, except at the risk of being lynched. At the poles, there will be the polar amplification effect and other feedbacks. Therefore, short-term odds over periods of a few years are probably close to 50:50. What is far more forecastable is that over a longer period the chaotic [not random] noise cancels itself out, leaving the cumulative year on year increase due to climate change. That's why the climate is measured over 30 years or longer. Short term trends are essentially valueless in statistical terms. Your characterisation of people who are convinced by the evidence as 'warmers' is objectionable. Have you read any genuine science recently? Ever? From your comments, it seems unlikely. N.B. WUWT and Energy & Environment don't count! Q. When did I last read some science? A. About two hours ago. See ref. Ref. Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007: Historical context, the underlying dynamics, and its phenological impacts Luterbacher et al. Ron,
Speaking as a non-expert. It is my understanding that the interannual variability [noise] is far larger than the climate-change related signature. If it were larger, nobody would voice your opinions, except at the risk of being lynched. At the poles, there will be the polar amplification effect and other feedbacks. Therefore, short-term odds over periods of a few years are probably close to 50:50. What is far more forecastable is that over a longer period the chaotic [not random] noise cancels itself out, leaving the cumulative year on year increase due to climate change. That’s why the climate is measured over 30 years or longer. Short term trends are essentially valueless in statistical terms.

Your characterisation of people who are convinced by the evidence as ‘warmers’ is objectionable.

Have you read any genuine science recently? Ever? From your comments, it seems unlikely. N.B. WUWT and Energy & Environment don’t count!
Q. When did I last read some science?
A. About two hours ago. See ref.

Ref.
Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007:
Historical context, the underlying dynamics, and its phenological impacts
Luterbacher et al.

]]> By: Nylo http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-10076 Nylo Thu, 27 Mar 2008 09:36:32 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-10076 No link to the report yet. However I have an inter view with Josh Willis, a well-known AGR supporter who published 2 years ago a paper, http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL027033.shtml critizising the first results obtained by ARGO during 2003-2005, which of course showed cooling, by claiming that the cooling was due to sampling errors. Now, with the results of 2003-2007 still showing cooling, he doesn't claim the same, either because he was wrong in the beginning or because the posible sampling errors have been corrected with the deployment of new measuring robots without affecting the results. The interview: http://www.npr.org/templates/player/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=88520025&m=88552249 The warming seems to be having a break, he more or less comes to say. No link to the report yet. However I have an inter view with Josh Willis, a well-known AGR supporter who published 2 years ago a paper,
http://www.agu.org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2006/ 2006GL027033.shtml
critizising the first results obtained by ARGO during 2003-2005, which of course showed cooling, by claiming that the cooling was due to sampling errors. Now, with the results of 2003-2007 still showing cooling, he doesn’t claim the same, either because he was wrong in the beginning or because the posible sampling errors have been corrected with the deployment of new measuring robots without affecting the results.

The interview:
http://www.npr.org/ templates/ player/ mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=88520025&m=88552249

The warming seems to be having a break, he more or less comes to say.

]]> By: Nylo http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-10027 Nylo Wed, 26 Mar 2008 12:02:47 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-10027 I just got news that there is a first report from the ARGOS experiment, which consists of 3000 autonomous devices measuring temperature and salinity of seas and oceans in depths between 1500m and 0m. This report shows no average heating of the oceans at all for the last 5 years (that's how long the project has existed). If anything, a little cooling. As soon as I get a link to that first summary report, I will provide it here. Meanwhile, you can learn about the project details and data at http://www.coriolis.eu.org/default.htm http://www.coriolis.eu.org/english/project/phases.htm I just got news that there is a first report from the ARGOS experiment, which consists of 3000 autonomous devices measuring temperature and salinity of seas and oceans in depths between 1500m and 0m. This report shows no average heating of the oceans at all for the last 5 years (that’s how long the project has existed). If anything, a little cooling.

As soon as I get a link to that first summary report, I will provide it here. Meanwhile, you can learn about the project details and data at
http://www.coriolis.eu.org/default.htm
http://www.coriolis.eu.org/english/project/phases.htm

]]> By: PGosselin http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-9422 PGosselin Fri, 14 Mar 2008 16:53:58 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-9422 I just love the way you're all climaxing looking at the temperature graphic you show above. True it shows the Arctic getting warmer, but look at the South Pole. This is where 90% of the world's ice is stored. Looks to me like it's getting colder down there! I just love the way you’re all climaxing looking at the temperature graphic you show above. True it shows the Arctic getting warmer, but look at the South Pole. This is where 90% of the world’s ice is stored. Looks to me like it’s getting colder down there!

]]> By: PGosselin http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-9420 PGosselin Fri, 14 Mar 2008 16:44:54 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-9420 The minimums vary already more than 10% from year to year. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.jpg I'd certainly bet on the ice not disappearing by 2030. And sea levels will surely not increase 1 meter in the next 92 years. I'd bet any one on that. And because none of us will be around in 2100, we can take the 10-year trend. That is if sea level rises 10cm or less in the next 10 years, then I win. If sea level rises more than 10 cm during the next 10 years, then I lose. (Excluding volcanic activity under the West Antarctic shelf). Anyone willing to accept that bet? Let me know if you're interested! I have yet to find anyone even willing to bet on 5cm in the next 10 years. PS: Looking at the link provided, never has the sea ice cover recovered so quickly as in the 2007/08 winter. The minimums vary already more than 10% from year to year.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/ cryosphere/ IMAGES/ current.area.jpg

I’d certainly bet on the ice not disappearing by 2030. And sea levels will surely not increase 1 meter in the next 92 years. I’d bet any one on that. And because none of us will be around in 2100, we can take the 10-year trend. That is if sea level rises 10cm or less in the next 10 years, then I win. If sea level rises more than 10 cm during the next 10 years, then I lose. (Excluding volcanic activity under the West Antarctic shelf).
Anyone willing to accept that bet? Let me know if you’re interested!
I have yet to find anyone even willing to bet on 5cm in the next 10 years.
PS: Looking at the link provided, never has the sea ice cover recovered so quickly as in the 2007/08 winter.

]]> By: Ron http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-7171 Ron Mon, 10 Dec 2007 01:26:26 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-7171 This one might even be a longer shot than the one above - but who knows? I bet you a dollar that Al Gore is going to enter the presidential race at some point. I probably would, if I was him; and he seemed pretty broken up about losing the last time. He's also the one with the good press lately. If he waits until the last minute, he might avoid some of the mud that's going to be flying. What is the last minute that one I'm still predicting Hillary as the winner, though (but I hope I'm wrong). Actually, back in the late 90s sometime, I predicted George Bush, and then Hillary as the next president after him. I sure didn't see him winning a second term, however. My original prediction included 'a black, woman running mate - to be announced'. It will be interesting to see how this season plays out. This one might even be a longer shot than the one above – but who knows?

I bet you a dollar that Al Gore is going to enter the presidential race at some point.

I probably would, if I was him; and he seemed pretty broken up about losing the last time. He’s also the one with the good press lately. If he waits until the last minute, he might avoid some of the mud that’s going to be flying. What is the last minute that one

I’m still predicting Hillary as the winner, though (but I hope I’m wrong).

Actually, back in the late 90s sometime, I predicted George Bush, and then Hillary as the next president after him. I sure didn’t see him winning a second term, however.

My original prediction included ‘a black, woman running mate – to be announced’. It will be interesting to see how this season plays out.

]]> By: Joe http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-7165 Joe Sun, 09 Dec 2007 20:40:19 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-7165 Remind me about that bet. Remind me about that bet.

]]> By: Ron http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-7164 Ron Sun, 09 Dec 2007 20:07:46 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-7164 But we're still on with our $1 bet about Al Gore, right? But we’re still on with our $1 bet about Al Gore, right?

]]> By: Joe http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-7158 Joe Sat, 08 Dec 2007 13:50:47 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-7158 The only point made here is nobody is interested in a $20 bet with you. The only point made here is nobody is interested in a $20 bet with you.

]]> By: Ron http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-7157 Ron Sat, 08 Dec 2007 03:32:44 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/04/global-warming-bet-arctic-ice-melting/#comment-7157 I'm a skeptic who is getting sick and tired of the fear mongering and hysteria and new proposals for bigger (global) government and more taxes - and I think I made my point. I’m a skeptic who is getting sick and tired of the fear mongering and hysteria and new proposals for bigger (global) government and more taxes – and I think I made my point.

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