I can’t help but ask Joe - sounds like we’re crossing some sort of a tipping point in perma…?

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/ cryosphere/ IMAGES/ current.area.south.jpg
and
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/ cryosphere/ IMAGES/ current.area.jpg

Never has the arctic recovered 11 million sq. km in one winter.
Hmmmm

Here’s hoping it’s not a long time like CO2

Either you believe in the scientific method or you don’t. If you do, then you are stuck with the IPCC review of the science. If you don’t, what is the point of trotting out denier/delayer talking points that are based on selective sampling of data, while ignoring 99.9% of the observational data.

If I were you, I’d be hoping real hard for a UN-IPCC-Europe coup d’etat and for them to shut down all those “denier” websites, the “deniers” behind them, and all them hot “denier” books that have been coming out, and so on. Time is running out you know. It’s begun to get cooler, more and the “denial” machine is just getting started. In a few short years we could very well be back to 1960s-like winters. If that should happen, you still might be able to convince the public that it’s still warm out - but only if you have complete control of information and the climate and weather services.
But I’d say your AGW boat has drifted into the deadhorse latitudes with no tropical winds in sight for your sails. The AGW hoax is over.

But to cut to the chase, $1000 says the next decade is hotter than this one. I’ll give you 2-to-1 odds. If you won’t take the bet, then everyone will know you don’t believe the Nonsense you are spouting, which makes it pure disinformation.

Unless life’s too short to bother, that is….

If someone explains to you why there can be record refreezes of artic ice and that it would be wrong to conclude that means global cooling, will you then stop and think about it? That maybe there is really global warming going on or that these scientists know something? I doubt it but give it a chance.

There will always be ice in the artic. In the winter. When people talk about ice free in the artic, they are talking about summer ice free.

If and when there is summer ice free in the artic, that winter may have the largest winter refreeze. Why? Because there is so much more area to refreeze because the ice that would usually have stayed is gone. More area to refreeze. As more of the multiyear ice has frozen there is more area for single year ice to freeze closer to the coldest parts of the artic.

The refreeze area that has refroze one year is easy to melt in the summer because it is so thin. The ice that has been there many years is much thicker and is harder and takes longer to melt.

Two things. When I said that there will always be winter ice in the artic, I really don’t have any idea about that. I could imagine at some time that the artic is warm enough to not refreeze in the winter. When that would be, I wouldn’t know. Also the year when there is the largest area of refreeze might not be when there is artic ice free, because maybe the refreeze needs cold ice near it to freeze more ice.

That’s all my speculation. If somebody can say it’s wrong go for it.

For a carbon dioxide number go to;

http://www.carbonify.com/carbon-dioxide-levels.htm

Peter, it already has. As the tundra thaws, it will express methane, not C02. Do you know what happens next?

The right way to read the data is not that the planet is warming, but that the planet is WARM. For it to be warming, you would need February to be hotter than the RECENT years. Say, last decade. Cooling doesn’t mean cool. It means cooling. It will take some time for monthly low temperature records to beat those 30 years ago, of course. Cooling is a process.

Repeat with me: regarding the last decade, the planet is WARM, but not warming. And the planet is COOLING, but not cool.

I would gladly take your 1000$ bet. But I don’t think you would pay after you lost.

Why would I repeat your disinformation? The fact is, the planet is warming and it will soon be hot.

One of the more anti-scientific things written on this blog in a while: “For it to be warming, you would need February to be hotter than the RECENT years.”

The truth is that, no matter which time resolution you want to pick, the warming trend will show now less extreme than 10 years ago. Because the temperatures have kept quite stable for 10 years. It’s, let’s say, a little stop in the warming. This is important because it is opposite to the predictions of Mann et Al with their hockey stick. The hockey stick was so terrifying because the last year in the graph was 1998, a strongly positive anomaly. If we were to draw a new graph today with up-to-date temperatures and the same kind of time-averaging of the temperature graph, we would see that it doesn’t go that high for 1998 (averaging the later years softens the thing quite a lot), and the average warming trend is also reduced (same total warming but in a +10 years timespan).

Yes, I know you would dare to bet just over the records of the past 150 years. But alas, in natural history that is just a blink.