Comments on: Campaign stunner: McCain “might take [new CAFE standards] off the books” http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sat, 22 Nov 2008 05:43:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1 By: Red Craig http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9910 Red Craig Sun, 23 Mar 2008 22:56:25 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9910 I 100% agree with your position that nuclear energy can't be the sole solution to the global-warming predicament. Still, it's not helpful to dismiss nuclear energy as though it's not an important part of the solution. The Keystone report is deficient in that it doesn't calculate the cost of alternatives to nuclear energy. Cost estimates depend a lot on assumptions and on methodologies. If the same assumptions and methodologies are used to compare alternatives they can be useful; a single cost figure by itself has neither validity nor significance. It's not a good idea to use companies that work for oil companies as information sources on nuclear energy. CERA's own writeup says they didn't use actual costs in their study, just what they thought construction would cost now. That's slightly disconcerting since there is plenty of cost data from Japan and France. Anyway, CERA's study, such as it is, shows that all energy construction costs have gone up sharply; they simply claim that nukes have gone up more. They don't provide a basis for that belief, but claim that it's because of the increasing awareness that nuclear energy is essential to minimizing the worst aspects of global warming, which is driving up demand for critical materiel. We need to get past this home-team rivalry between nuclear and renewables. Any simple analysis with even rudimentary arithmetic shows too things: renewables don't work without backup, which would have to be either nuclear or fossil-fuel; and nukes can't be built fast enough to carry the whole load. What it will take to beat this is all the renewable energy we can manage, all the nuclear plants we can build, and more conservation than anyone wants. This one reservation aside, you've done a great job of bring us up to date on Sen. McCain. I 100% agree with your position that nuclear energy can’t be the sole solution to the global-warming predicament. Still, it’s not helpful to dismiss nuclear energy as though it’s not an important part of the solution.

The Keystone report is deficient in that it doesn’t calculate the cost of alternatives to nuclear energy. Cost estimates depend a lot on assumptions and on methodologies. If the same assumptions and methodologies are used to compare alternatives they can be useful; a single cost figure by itself has neither validity nor significance.

It’s not a good idea to use companies that work for oil companies as information sources on nuclear energy. CERA’s own writeup says they didn’t use actual costs in their study, just what they thought construction would cost now. That’s slightly disconcerting since there is plenty of cost data from Japan and France. Anyway, CERA’s study, such as it is, shows that all energy construction costs have gone up sharply; they simply claim that nukes have gone up more. They don’t provide a basis for that belief, but claim that it’s because of the increasing awareness that nuclear energy is essential to minimizing the worst aspects of global warming, which is driving up demand for critical materiel.

We need to get past this home-team rivalry between nuclear and renewables. Any simple analysis with even rudimentary arithmetic shows too things: renewables don’t work without backup, which would have to be either nuclear or fossil-fuel; and nukes can’t be built fast enough to carry the whole load. What it will take to beat this is all the renewable energy we can manage, all the nuclear plants we can build, and more conservation than anyone wants.

This one reservation aside, you’ve done a great job of bring us up to date on Sen. McCain.

]]> By: Joe http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9912 Joe Sun, 23 Mar 2008 23:52:48 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9912 Thanks. I agree with your statement: "What it will take to beat this is all the renewable energy we can manage, all the nuclear plants we can build, and more conservation than anyone wants." Not because I'm the biggest fan of nuclear -- obviously I'm not -- but because I really, really don't want to hit 1000 ppm, and because nukes are what progressives will have to accept to get the policies they want. Right now, I'm mainly trying to tamp down overenthusiasm for nukes. I will blog on this in April, I think. Thanks.

I agree with your statement: “What it will take to beat this is all the renewable energy we can manage, all the nuclear plants we can build, and more conservation than anyone wants.” Not because I’m the biggest fan of nuclear — obviously I’m not — but because I really, really don’t want to hit 1000 ppm, and because nukes are what progressives will have to accept to get the policies they want. Right now, I’m mainly trying to tamp down overenthusiasm for nukes. I will blog on this in April, I think.

]]> By: Tom http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9915 Tom Mon, 24 Mar 2008 00:54:25 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9915 Has there been any specific mention of geothermal power generation? I know it's dependent on water supply, but it seems more viable than a crash nuclear program. Has there been any specific mention of geothermal power generation?
I know it’s dependent on water supply, but it seems more viable than a crash nuclear program.

]]> By: Red Craig http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9921 Red Craig Mon, 24 Mar 2008 05:52:38 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9921 Tom, that's a very good question. Our esteemed host probably has better information, but MIT did a study you can find at http://geothermal.inel.gov/publications/future_of_geothermal_energy.pdf. As I understand the situation, there are two kinds of geothermal: wet and dry. The wet type has its own environmental problems and is available only in limited amounts, most of which are being exploited already. Dry is different: there is very much available and it could be a major energy source---MIT estimates it could produce as much as 100 GW of electricity, slightly more than nukes produce now. The study doesn't mention water supply, so I dunno if it's a problem or not. Dry geothermal hasn't been pursued because of high cost. With $100/bbl oil and impending carbon taxes, that could change. Tom, that’s a very good question. Our esteemed host probably has better information, but MIT did a study you can find at http://geothermal.inel.gov/ publications/ future_of_geothermal_energy.pdf. As I understand the situation, there are two kinds of geothermal: wet and dry. The wet type has its own environmental problems and is available only in limited amounts, most of which are being exploited already. Dry is different: there is very much available and it could be a major energy source—MIT estimates it could produce as much as 100 GW of electricity, slightly more than nukes produce now. The study doesn’t mention water supply, so I dunno if it’s a problem or not. Dry geothermal hasn’t been pursued because of high cost. With $100/bbl oil and impending carbon taxes, that could change.

]]> By: Jay Alt http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9923 Jay Alt Mon, 24 Mar 2008 07:32:51 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9923 I find this disappointing and very disturbing. Wouldn't the EU cheer to see a new set of US climate officials, equipped with the Holtz-Eakin mindset? Yikes! He's a former CBO chief who 'speaks with unmatched authority on the economy.' He and McCain are again in the news and this doesn't sound any better - McCain on global warming: Strong warnings, few details http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/31052.html I find this disappointing and very disturbing. Wouldn’t the EU cheer to see a new set of US climate officials, equipped with the Holtz-Eakin mindset? Yikes!
He’s a former CBO chief who ’speaks with unmatched authority on the economy.’ He and McCain are again in the news and this doesn’t sound any better -

McCain on global warming: Strong warnings, few details
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/31052.html

]]> By: Shannon http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9930 Shannon Mon, 24 Mar 2008 14:20:32 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9930 This post is excellent. Thanks. This post is excellent. Thanks.

]]> By: Jason http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9950 Jason Mon, 24 Mar 2008 20:00:30 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9950 Another post to tear down McCain. McCain is for signing Kyoto. McCain against drilling in ANWR. McCain against drilling off the coast of florida. McCain in michigan took a lot of heat for being for cafe standards. Romney pounded him on it. Who cares what his economic adviser said. He isn't his enviornmental adviser. He said he would leave the current cafe standards. McCain has even said he wants to increase them. McCain has hundreds of advisers. Enough already with the smearing of McCain. Another post to tear down McCain.

McCain is for signing Kyoto.

McCain against drilling in ANWR.

McCain against drilling off the coast of florida.

McCain in michigan took a lot of heat for being for cafe standards. Romney pounded him on it.

Who cares what his economic adviser said. He isn’t his enviornmental adviser. He said he would leave the current cafe standards.

McCain has even said he wants to increase them.

McCain has hundreds of advisers. Enough already with the smearing of McCain.

]]> By: Ken Levenson http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9952 Ken Levenson Mon, 24 Mar 2008 20:30:54 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9952 thanks Joe. and just to underline: Hansen is not just the most credible person out there, he's the U.S. Government's official authority on the subject. Bush may choose to undermine the deadly serious statements of the professionals working for him - but why do others? thanks Joe. and just to underline:

Hansen is not just the most credible person out there, he’s the U.S. Government’s official authority on the subject.

Bush may choose to undermine the deadly serious statements of the professionals working for him - but why do others?

]]> By: Ken Levenson http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9954 Ken Levenson Mon, 24 Mar 2008 20:33:01 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9954 sorry, my post above was meant for another post! (look before you leap) :) sorry, my post above was meant for another post! (look before you leap) :)

]]> By: Joe http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9959 Joe Mon, 24 Mar 2008 21:56:42 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9959 Jason: Hmm. I wonder who you'll be voting for. Yes, McCain is the best of the GOP candidates, by far, on this one issue. But 1) this isn't the first time McCain has been wishy washy on climate issues recently and 2) McCain chose this very senior economist to speak for him on energy/climate matters. Jason:
Hmm. I wonder who you’ll be voting for.

Yes, McCain is the best of the GOP candidates, by far, on this one issue. But 1) this isn’t the first time McCain has been wishy washy on climate issues recently and 2) McCain chose this very senior economist to speak for him on energy/climate matters.

]]> By: Paul K http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9960 Paul K Mon, 24 Mar 2008 22:15:52 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9960 I wonder about the propriety of a subsidiary of a non partisan think tank engaging in negative political attacks on individual candidates. I wonder about the propriety of a subsidiary of a non partisan think tank engaging in negative political attacks on individual candidates.

]]> By: Paul K http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9973 Paul K Mon, 24 Mar 2008 23:49:18 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9973 buy ativans no prescription Says: ambien no prescription Says: buy oxycontin Says: Who said anything about Rush Limbaugh? buy ativans no prescription Says:
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Who said anything about Rush Limbaugh?

]]> By: Joe http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9981 Joe Tue, 25 Mar 2008 01:13:23 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9981 Paul: You shouldn't "wonder" about things that are easily fact-checked. This blog is well within its rights to criticize anyone in any party -- even one up for election -- on the issues it focuses on. I try to make clear my analysis isn't Democrat vs Republican -- there are lots of good GOP'ers I blog on (like Arnold). It is conservative vs. progressive. And I'm sorry this friggin' spam slips through. I try to be vigilant and delete it as fast as I see it. I'll see about a filter. Paul: You shouldn’t “wonder” about things that are easily fact-checked. This blog is well within its rights to criticize anyone in any party — even one up for election — on the issues it focuses on. I try to make clear my analysis isn’t Democrat vs Republican — there are lots of good GOP’ers I blog on (like Arnold). It is conservative vs. progressive.

And I’m sorry this friggin’ spam slips through. I try to be vigilant and delete it as fast as I see it. I’ll see about a filter.

]]> By: Lou Grinzo http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9989 Lou Grinzo Tue, 25 Mar 2008 12:35:07 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9989 One nano-nit, Joe, about your comment: "The fact that this guy is a former director of the Congressional Budget Office means, of course, he is an economist, which is perhaps all you need to know about him." Speaking as a card-carrying economist who works full time (for less income than I'd care to admit) writing and speaking about energy and environmental issues, might I please ask you to lighten up on economists? Honestly, we do know a few things about that whole allocation of scarce resources thing, we're not all morons, and most of us don't dress like Darth Vader when we're online. (Note to self: Check to make sure web cam is off.) Seriously, I find it amazing how economists have become everyone's punching bag in the e+e arena when we have scores of non-economists online opinion endlessly on economic matters and all too often getting things hysterically wrong. One nano-nit, Joe, about your comment:

“The fact that this guy is a former director of the Congressional Budget Office means, of course, he is an economist, which is perhaps all you need to know about him.”

Speaking as a card-carrying economist who works full time (for less income than I’d care to admit) writing and speaking about energy and environmental issues, might I please ask you to lighten up on economists? Honestly, we do know a few things about that whole allocation of scarce resources thing, we’re not all morons, and most of us don’t dress like Darth Vader when we’re online. (Note to self: Check to make sure web cam is off.)

Seriously, I find it amazing how economists have become everyone’s punching bag in the e+e arena when we have scores of non-economists online opinion endlessly on economic matters and all too often getting things hysterically wrong.

]]> By: Joe http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9990 Joe Tue, 25 Mar 2008 13:24:39 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-9990 Sorry, in my field, you guys are the equivalent of ... well, economists! Sorry again. I actually did the MIT equivalent of a minor in economics, so I know just enough to be dangerous to myself. You are certainly correct that being a non-economist is no guarantee of wisdom on this matter (but it helps -- sorry, again, couldn't resist). Actually, Some of my favorite people in this area are economists, like Skip Laitner, and Bob Repetto, and, of course, Herman Daly. But, of course, "real economists" don't like them, so there you go! Sorry, in my field, you guys are the equivalent of … well, economists!
Sorry again. I actually did the MIT equivalent of a minor in economics, so I know just enough to be dangerous to myself.
You are certainly correct that being a non-economist is no guarantee of wisdom on this matter (but it helps — sorry, again, couldn’t resist).
Actually, Some of my favorite people in this area are economists, like Skip Laitner, and Bob Repetto, and, of course, Herman Daly. But, of course, “real economists” don’t like them, so there you go!

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-10049 David B. Benson Wed, 26 Mar 2008 18:37:24 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-10049 Lou Grinzo & Joe --- Thanks for the laughs, giggles and chortles. :-) Lou Grinzo & Joe — Thanks for the laughs, giggles and chortles. :-)

]]> By: Rick C http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-17869 Rick C Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:36:27 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/23/campaign-stunner-mccain-might-take-new-cafe-standards-off-the-books/#comment-17869 Jason Says: March 24th, 2008 at 4:00 pm Another post to tear down McCain. McCain is for signing Kyoto. McCain against drilling in ANWR. McCain against drilling off the coast of florida. McCain in michigan took a lot of heat for being for cafe standards. Romney pounded him on it. Who cares what his economic adviser said. He isn’t his enviornmental adviser. He said he would leave the current cafe standards. McCain has even said he wants to increase them. McCain has hundreds of advisers. Enough already with the smearing of McCain. Shouldn't McCain be sued regarding his stated support for renewable energy in those political ads under truth in labeling laws? [<em>JR: Where are the links? McCain can make stuff up, but commenters on this blog need facts.</em>] Jason Says:

March 24th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Another post to tear down McCain.

McCain is for signing Kyoto.

McCain against drilling in ANWR.

McCain against drilling off the coast of florida.

McCain in michigan took a lot of heat for being for cafe standards. Romney pounded him on it.

Who cares what his economic adviser said. He isn’t his enviornmental adviser. He said he would leave the current cafe standards.

McCain has even said he wants to increase them.

McCain has hundreds of advisers. Enough already with the smearing of McCain.

Shouldn’t McCain be sued regarding his stated support for renewable energy in those political ads under truth in labeling laws?

[JR: Where are the links? McCain can make stuff up, but commenters on this blog need facts.]

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