http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2007/07/departed_chair.html

However, it is misleading bordering on fraudulent to pretend that there is such a thing as “zero emission” operation when it comes to CO2.

I hope the CARB staff goes off and evaluates the climate change effects correctly.

I wonder if they can find any true data on fuel usage in electric power production as a function of time of day. If anyone knows of such, please let me know.

How much does the PV cost before rebates? I keep looking at this option myself, but have yet to see a low enough cost.

As far as the grid is concerned, I contend that every electric vehicle plugged in will be charged 100% from coal. All the good, cheap forms of electricity are allready in full use. While the added load could come from natural gas plants, at around $9 per MMBTU for natural gas and around $2 or $3 per MMBTU for coal, it is going to be hard to get a different outcome. Although reasonable people seem to disagree, the reason that PGE charges a lot less for electricity use at night is that they have coal fired capacity to use then. I keep looking for real data on PGE power plant operations as a function of time of day, but have not yet found it.

You might be interested in the Calpine story. They committed heavily into very efficient natural gas equipment. Their annual report lists their facilities. And they were bankrupted when natural gas went from $2 to $10.

Second, coal plants are mostly baseload electric power. Utilities try to run them at the same power output all the time, except for maintenance shutdowns. Thus incremental load, such as EVs, can only result in additional coal if new plants are built. Right now there is a strong backlash against building new coal power plants. By 2030 we will be closing coal plants around the nation, not opening new ones. Much of this power will be simply unneeded because increases in efficiency will be occurring faster than population growth.

(I have to omit the currency symbol below, because the comment system truncates posts when it sees one.)
PV modules are currently about 4/Watt, inverters 1/Watt, and installation is about 4/Watt. The modules are heading rapidly to 2/Watt, with 1/Watt a prospect further down the road as thin-film technologies ramp up in volume. However, all this means is that installation cost will dominate until we make improvements there. Solutions for utility-scale PV are also in the works, and there the installation costs are much lower.

You are missing the difference between long term contracts and buying power from the national grid on the spot market, which is not prohibited, no matter what the source, which of course is not identifiable. This is very susceptible to gouging by energy traders. My pessimistic prediction is that our California government will cancel that law when the next power crisis hits. The then sitting governor will be recalled as if it was his fault.

As to building new coal power plants, yes there is some backlash. I tend to discount the effectiveness of such in the face of a significant cost penalty when other types of power plants are brought on line. One clue is the large unused natural gas capacity that the chart on page 12 of the GM presentation at http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/PDF/presentation-sm.pdf shows.

While you are looking at the GM charts, please note that the GM plan makes no mention of improving vehicle efficiency. Their approach seems to be to simply convert their standard fleet to run on energy “carried” by electricity. They fully intend to use the “zero emission” slogan for their electric energy guzzlers.

Also, the GM charts as well as the GM blogs give a sense of the mood of the country as far as real action against GHG. The latest round of auto shows in the US and Europe also seem to show this attitude. The GM “Volt” is there, I think as a PR gambit, but it is also a foreshadowing of the shift to energy from electric sources.

I want to be very clear that I am very much in favor of electric car systems. The difference between my approach and GM’s is that I think these cars must be very much more efficient. Then things begin to make sense. For PV solar at 9 dollars/watt, if you really do not need many kwhr to run the car, the cost gets manageable. In the car concept I am developing you could go 80 mph and still get 200 mpg. The Aptera car concept is similarly efficient, and they are actually running these on the road. I am a little behind in the race to get to market, but seriously trying.