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	<title>Comments on: AMS Seminar Discusses the Sun&#8217;s Role in Warming</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/</link>
	<description>The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 08 Nov 2009 10:55:19 -0500</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Francis Manns</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10829</link>
		<dc:creator>Francis Manns</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Apr 2008 19:13:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10829</guid>
		<description>People find what they look for and the minute a scientist believes his own hypothesis, he’s a dead duck as a scientist.
My hypothesis is climate change is not man-made. 
The hypothesis runs: 
It’s not solar irradiance alone.
It’s not sunspots alone.
It’s not CO2 above 18 C.
it’s not water vapour alone.
It’s not cosmic radiation alone.’
But it may be cosmic and solar radiation modulated by solar magnetic activity subtly changing the cloud albedo of Earth.

Beware the unintended consequences of sequestering plant food during the famine.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>People find what they look for and the minute a scientist believes his own hypothesis, he’s a dead duck as a scientist.<br />
My hypothesis is climate change is not man-made.<br />
The hypothesis runs:<br />
It’s not solar irradiance alone.<br />
It’s not sunspots alone.<br />
It’s not CO2 above 18 C.<br />
it’s not water vapour alone.<br />
It’s not cosmic radiation alone.’<br />
But it may be cosmic and solar radiation modulated by solar magnetic activity subtly changing the cloud albedo of Earth.</p>
<p>Beware the unintended consequences of sequestering plant food during the famine.</p>
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		<title>By: Nylo</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10375</link>
		<dc:creator>Nylo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Apr 2008 15:58:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10375</guid>
		<description>David, you can stand by what you want to stand by. You can even stand by the Earth being flat. That won&#039;t make it true. I already gave you the data. If you think that it is not the true data, despite having been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and being aproximately the same for different ways of measuring cosmic ray flux (the Neutron Monitor in Climax, Colorado, since 1953, or ionization chambers since 1937), it is YOU who has to provide with new data and prove that it is more... correct, so to say, to prove your point.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David, you can stand by what you want to stand by. You can even stand by the Earth being flat. That won&#8217;t make it true. I already gave you the data. If you think that it is not the true data, despite having been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and being aproximately the same for different ways of measuring cosmic ray flux (the Neutron Monitor in Climax, Colorado, since 1953, or ionization chambers since 1937), it is YOU who has to provide with new data and prove that it is more&#8230; correct, so to say, to prove your point.</p>
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		<title>By: David B. Benson</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10344</link>
		<dc:creator>David B. Benson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Apr 2008 17:30:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10344</guid>
		<description>Nylo --- Go find the original data on cosmic ray flux.  Do the statistics (properly) on that data.  I stand by my statement.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nylo &#8212; Go find the original data on cosmic ray flux.  Do the statistics (properly) on that data.  I stand by my statement.</p>
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		<title>By: Nylo</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10342</link>
		<dc:creator>Nylo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Apr 2008 09:44:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10342</guid>
		<description>One more interesting article about this phenomenom in the Wikipedia:

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proyecto_Cloud</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One more interesting article about this phenomenom in the Wikipedia:</p>
<p><a href="http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proyecto_Cloud" rel="nofollow">http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proyecto_Cloud</a></p>
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		<title>By: Nylo</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10340</link>
		<dc:creator>Nylo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Apr 2008 09:22:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10340</guid>
		<description>Error correction: the 3,5% variation is in cosmic rays and is in the period of only 1987 to 1990. The overall variation of cosmic rays in 11 years of high solar flux is only 1,2%, but is enough to explain the warming trend in that period of time.

Here you have another interesting article about relationship between cosmic rays and temperature. The graphs are very clarifying...

http://www.spacecenter.dk/publications/scientific-report-series/Scient_No._3.pdf</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Error correction: the 3,5% variation is in cosmic rays and is in the period of only 1987 to 1990. The overall variation of cosmic rays in 11 years of high solar flux is only 1,2%, but is enough to explain the warming trend in that period of time.</p>
<p>Here you have another interesting article about relationship between cosmic rays and temperature. The graphs are very clarifying&#8230;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.spacecenter.dk/publications/scientific-report-series/Scient_No._3.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.spacecenter.dk/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>publications/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>scientific-report-series/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>Scient_No._3.pdf</a></p>
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		<title>By: Nylo</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10339</link>
		<dc:creator>Nylo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Apr 2008 09:06:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10339</guid>
		<description>David, this is about spreading science, not lies. Cosmic ray flux has indeed changed. Look at the article &quot;Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth&#039;s Climate&quot;, by  Henrik Svensmark in 1998. I found it in Google&#039;s cache. I provide the link:

http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:dD20PYlss4EJ:www.tmgnow.com/repository/global/CREC.html+average+cloud+cover+of+the+earth&amp;hl=es&amp;ct=clnk&amp;cd=9&amp;gl=es&amp;client=firefox-a

I will copy below 3 paragraphs that concentrate on this issue:

----------------------------
[...] Clouds reflect more energy than they trap and this leads to a cooling in the range of 17 to 35 Wm-2 [21-23]. It is not easy to estimate the net change in radiative forcing from a solar modulation of the cloud cover. The main problem is that it is not known which part of the cloud volume is affected. This is important because different cloud types have different radiative properties. Although the net effect of clouds is to cool the planet, high thin clouds tend to warm the Earth&#039;s surface, and therefore one could imagine that an increase in cosmic ray flux could lead to a warming. However, high thin clouds which tend to warm the Earth&#039;s surface occur in association with high thick cooling clouds, and together the two cloud types tend to mitigate their effect on the energy balance [24]. The results of Fig. 3b seem to suggest that an increase in cloud cover results in a cooling, which again suggest that a larger part of the cloud volume is affected.

From Fig. 3 it is seen that the temperature in the period 1970-1990 rose by approximately 0.3&#039;C. It is possible to compare the variation in cosmic ray flux (assuming it is directly correlated with cloud cover) and this temperature change via some simple assumptions. From cloud satellite observations and numerical cloud modeling it is found that a 1% change in the total composition of Earth&#039;s cloud cover corresponds to 0.5 W/m2 change in net radiative forcing [25]. From Svensmark and Friis-Christensen [7] it is known that from 1987 to 1990 global cloudiness changed approximately 3.0% which can be estimated to be 1.50 W/mZ [7]. In the same period cosmic rays from the ion chamber changed 3.5% as seen in Fig. 2. We can now calculate the approximate radiative forcing by noting that the mean 11 year average increase of cosmic rays in Fig. 3 from 1975 to 1989 is 1.2%, which then corresponds to a possible 0.5 W/m2 change in cloud forcing. This is a fairly large forcing, about 4 times the estimated change in solar irradiance. The resulting temperature change is difficult to estimate exactly. Studies obtained from a general circulation model gave a sensitivity (0.7 to I&#039;C/Wm-2 for DS =0.25%, where S is the solar constant) [26]. The direct influence of changes in solar irradiance is estimated to be only 0.1&#039;C [6]. The cloud forcing, however, gives for the above sensitivity, 0.3-0.5&#039;C, and has therefore the potential of explaining nearly all of the temperature changes in the period studied.

The solar cycle length has been shown to be an important parameter due to its close connection with temperature variations of the Earth. This parameter is determined empirically and it has not been straightforward to interpret. The present work gives a hint on why it is relevant to Earth&#039;s climate. The physical interpretation is based on the close agreement between variations in solar cycle length, GCR flux, and temperature as seen in Fig. 3. The solar cycle length is therefore a measure of the processes occurring within the sun of unknown dynamical origin which manifest themselves in the solar activity within the heliosphere that modulates the GCR, averaged over the solar cycle. 
----------------------


One can disagree with the conclussions he obtains, but not with the data. There has been a change in the solar flux, indeed. a 3,5% decrease. And there has been a cloudiness reduction, indeed. A 1% decrease. This seems to indicate that cloud formation is related to cosmic rays, to some extent. Further data found in the article supports this. And this has happened during 20 years of increased warming.

I disagree with him anyway because I don&#039;t think that the GCR explains all the heating. GH effect is real, it exists. Only its effect on temperature is not as overwhelmingly important as the alarmists try to persuade us it is.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David, this is about spreading science, not lies. Cosmic ray flux has indeed changed. Look at the article &#8220;Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth&#8217;s Climate&#8221;, by  Henrik Svensmark in 1998. I found it in Google&#8217;s cache. I provide the link:</p>
<p><a href="http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:dD20PYlss4EJ:www.tmgnow.com/repository/global/CREC.html+average+cloud+cover+of+the+earth&amp;hl=es&amp;ct=clnk&amp;cd=9&amp;gl=es&amp;client=firefox-a" rel="nofollow">http://64.233.183.104/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>search?q=cache:dD20PYlss4EJ:www.tmgnow.com/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>repository/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>global/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>CREC.html+average+cloud+cover+of+the+earth&amp;hl=es&amp;ct=clnk&amp;cd=9&amp;gl=es&amp;client=firefox-a</a></p>
<p>I will copy below 3 paragraphs that concentrate on this issue:</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<br />
[...] Clouds reflect more energy than they trap and this leads to a cooling in the range of 17 to 35 Wm-2 [21-23]. It is not easy to estimate the net change in radiative forcing from a solar modulation of the cloud cover. The main problem is that it is not known which part of the cloud volume is affected. This is important because different cloud types have different radiative properties. Although the net effect of clouds is to cool the planet, high thin clouds tend to warm the Earth&#8217;s surface, and therefore one could imagine that an increase in cosmic ray flux could lead to a warming. However, high thin clouds which tend to warm the Earth&#8217;s surface occur in association with high thick cooling clouds, and together the two cloud types tend to mitigate their effect on the energy balance [24]. The results of Fig. 3b seem to suggest that an increase in cloud cover results in a cooling, which again suggest that a larger part of the cloud volume is affected.</p>
<p>From Fig. 3 it is seen that the temperature in the period 1970-1990 rose by approximately 0.3&#8242;C. It is possible to compare the variation in cosmic ray flux (assuming it is directly correlated with cloud cover) and this temperature change via some simple assumptions. From cloud satellite observations and numerical cloud modeling it is found that a 1% change in the total composition of Earth&#8217;s cloud cover corresponds to 0.5 W/m2 change in net radiative forcing [25]. From Svensmark and Friis-Christensen [7] it is known that from 1987 to 1990 global cloudiness changed approximately 3.0% which can be estimated to be 1.50 W/mZ [7]. In the same period cosmic rays from the ion chamber changed 3.5% as seen in Fig. 2. We can now calculate the approximate radiative forcing by noting that the mean 11 year average increase of cosmic rays in Fig. 3 from 1975 to 1989 is 1.2%, which then corresponds to a possible 0.5 W/m2 change in cloud forcing. This is a fairly large forcing, about 4 times the estimated change in solar irradiance. The resulting temperature change is difficult to estimate exactly. Studies obtained from a general circulation model gave a sensitivity (0.7 to I&#8217;C/Wm-2 for DS =0.25%, where S is the solar constant) [26]. The direct influence of changes in solar irradiance is estimated to be only 0.1&#8242;C [6]. The cloud forcing, however, gives for the above sensitivity, 0.3-0.5&#8242;C, and has therefore the potential of explaining nearly all of the temperature changes in the period studied.</p>
<p>The solar cycle length has been shown to be an important parameter due to its close connection with temperature variations of the Earth. This parameter is determined empirically and it has not been straightforward to interpret. The present work gives a hint on why it is relevant to Earth&#8217;s climate. The physical interpretation is based on the close agreement between variations in solar cycle length, GCR flux, and temperature as seen in Fig. 3. The solar cycle length is therefore a measure of the processes occurring within the sun of unknown dynamical origin which manifest themselves in the solar activity within the heliosphere that modulates the GCR, averaged over the solar cycle.<br />
&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-</p>
<p>One can disagree with the conclussions he obtains, but not with the data. There has been a change in the solar flux, indeed. a 3,5% decrease. And there has been a cloudiness reduction, indeed. A 1% decrease. This seems to indicate that cloud formation is related to cosmic rays, to some extent. Further data found in the article supports this. And this has happened during 20 years of increased warming.</p>
<p>I disagree with him anyway because I don&#8217;t think that the GCR explains all the heating. GH effect is real, it exists. Only its effect on temperature is not as overwhelmingly important as the alarmists try to persuade us it is.</p>
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		<title>By: David B. Benson</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10328</link>
		<dc:creator>David B. Benson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Apr 2008 21:30:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10328</guid>
		<description>Nylo --- No change in cosmic ray flux during the last fifty years.  Global warming during the last fifty years.  Something else must be causing the change.  Hmmm.  Measured increase in CO2 during the last fifty years.  !! (Moment of Zen enlightenment.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nylo &#8212; No change in cosmic ray flux during the last fifty years.  Global warming during the last fifty years.  Something else must be causing the change.  Hmmm.  Measured increase in CO2 during the last fifty years.  !! (Moment of Zen enlightenment.)</p>
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		<title>By: Joe</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10311</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Apr 2008 16:51:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10311</guid>
		<description>Nylo -- You didn&#039;t read the link.  Yes, &quot;Their action is more subtle&quot; -- so subtle that there is in fact no supporting data.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nylo &#8212; You didn&#8217;t read the link.  Yes, &#8220;Their action is more subtle&#8221; &#8212; so subtle that there is in fact no supporting data.</p>
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		<title>By: Nylo</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10310</link>
		<dc:creator>Nylo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Apr 2008 16:49:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10310</guid>
		<description>Joe, you continue to miss the point. It&#039;s not about any &quot;warming power&quot; of the cosmic rays themselves. It&#039;s the fact that they influence cloud formation and that increases the albedo, which causes more of the normal Sun radiation not to reach the surface and be reflected back to the space. The cosmic rays affect as if they were a catalyzer of other reactions that result in a cooling effect. They are not conferring any energy to the system. Their action is more subtle.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joe, you continue to miss the point. It&#8217;s not about any &#8220;warming power&#8221; of the cosmic rays themselves. It&#8217;s the fact that they influence cloud formation and that increases the albedo, which causes more of the normal Sun radiation not to reach the surface and be reflected back to the space. The cosmic rays affect as if they were a catalyzer of other reactions that result in a cooling effect. They are not conferring any energy to the system. Their action is more subtle.</p>
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		<title>By: Joe</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10307</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Apr 2008 16:32:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/31/ams-seminar-discusses-the-suns-role-in-warming/#comment-10307</guid>
		<description>Fran -- Debunked as in
http://www.skepticalscience.com/cosmic-rays-and-global-warming.htm

The IPCC details hundreds of studies on the CO2/GHG side.  If you want to be taken seriously, you&#039;ll have to much, much better.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fran &#8212; Debunked as in<br />
<a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/cosmic-rays-and-global-warming.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.skepticalscience.com/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>cosmic-rays-and-global-warming.htm</a></p>
<p>The IPCC details hundreds of studies on the CO2/GHG side.  If you want to be taken seriously, you&#8217;ll have to much, much better.</p>
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