A top NASA scientist just emailed me the breaking news: “The ice age expired!”
Even more shocking — the rate of warming this year has been just about unprecedented in the historical record — even faster than Climate Progress had predicted just last month based on the NASA data from February (see here).
Just look at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies dataset (here). While January’s land-ocean global temperature was a mere +0.12°C above the the 1951-1980 average and the February anomaly was +0.26°C — the March anomaly was a staggering +0.67°C.
[Warning -- the following chart is not suitable for children or those who believe in global cooling. Please cover their eyes since the 2008 data, plotted in red below, might give them nightmares.]
This leading NASA scientist was himself stunned by the “temperature derivative” — geek speak for the rate of change. At this rate I’m afraid, we have only a couple of decades before the Earth becomes another Venus.
My advice to you: Hug your children, make love to your spouse, sell your beachfront property, and then spend your entire life savings as quickly as possible — assuming, of course, that three months of data can be used for climate projections. And, heck, if one month’s data is good enough to get stories on climate cooling from leading journalists at the Wall Street Journal (”Little Ice Age? Cold Snap Sparks Cooling Debate“) and New York Times (”Climate Skeptics Seize on Cold Spell“), three months ought to be enough for front page stories that change your entire life.
OUR CHANGING WEATHER CLIMATE
When we first reported this story (here), the Earth was in the death grip of an Ice Age that had lasted an unprecedented 4 or 5 weeks, nearly one-millionth the duration of recent Ice Ages. Earlier this year, websites were trumpeting bleak headlines like “Solar Activity Diminishes; Researchers Predict Another Ice Age“) or “Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming.” Or, for those who prefer geek-talk over bleak-talk, it was time for an “Update on Falsification of Climate Predictions,” as Roger Pielke, Jr. put it.
As noted above, even traditional media got suckered interested. I mean, who wouldn’t take a month’s data over a century’s? What does it matter that, as NASA has explained
“The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990” and 2007 tied with 1998 for Earth’s second warmest year in a century.
What is such data again a cold friggin’ January (well, technically it was the 31st warmest on record since 1880, but, man it certainly felt cold compared to January 2007, the warmest January on record — and what matters more than perceptions and spin)? Yes, we’re in a La Niña cooling event and a short-term minimum of solar irradiance, as NASA explained — but why let the facts confuse anything?
Sure the UK’s Hadley Center folk (discussed here) — whose data was also being used to push the global cooling nonsense — had themselves explained that the 8 warmest years in the 150 global temperature record are in order, 1998, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2007 and that:
[Financial planning note: The Hadley data for March (here) gives us a couple more decades before we become Venusians. Their January anomaly was +0.056°C, February anomaly was +0.26°C, and March anomaly was +0.430°C. So, you should still hug your children, make love to your spouse, and sell your beachfront property [duh, double duh, and triple duh], but you might want to hold on to some of the family’s gold jewelry for your kids].
Now, I did predict way back in early March that Venus-like warming was in our future, “Where is the media on the incredible warming and extreme weather of February?” But again, who could really expect the media to reverse all of its climate stories on the basis of one month’s data? I mean, be serious!
But surely the April data deserves some mention by the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, no?
One more thing. Based on my own general circulation model running on my souped-up lap top, I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that the remarkable warming of the last couple of months won’t continue at the same pace over the next two months. If this prediction proves as accurate as my March prediction, I do think it will vindicate all of the analyses presented on this blog both in the past and for all time. I mean who else is out there making accurate predictions — other than, say, the overwhelming majority of climate scientists? And they don’t count, do they?
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Delayer humour:
http://xkcd.com/164/
January 2008 almost off the chart, wow almost had to add negative numbers to the y-axis in your chart. I agree with 1999 as the corollary. In November based upon a glacier mass balance forecasting scheme that was published in January I forecast that the La Nina and negative PDO which both lead to cool conditions off the coast of the Western US, that glacier mass balances in the North Cascades of Washington would be positive in 2008. I am sticking with the forecast which is not officially made until April 1, but the La Nina was so well predicted that it was not a hard assumption. If you look at the anomaly maps of temp from NASA GISS you can see that pattern has simply been reinforced from Dec-Feb to the March map.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ cgi-bin/ gistemp/ do_nmap.py?year_last=2008&month_last=3&sat=4&sst=0&type=anoms&mean_gen=1203&year1=2008&year2=2008&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ cgi-bin/ gistemp/ do_nmap.py?year_last=2008&month_last=3&sat=4&sst=0&type=anoms&mean_gen=03&year1=2008&year2=2008&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
AnalysEs for a pluralized version, not analysIs.
I’m new to all this stuff, but don’t you need two months in a row of warm climate to declare the 2008 ice age over. Just tying to be fair.
Ronald — you make an interesting climatological point. I was going to put in a modifier like “seems over” — but then I thought, heck, shouldn’t a one-month Ice Age be falsified by one month of data?
We are definitely entering a new ice age. Every year for the last 5 years two ducks landed on our pond and then stayed through the summer, departing in Autumn. They always arrive on March 12th, plus or minus a day or two.
This year – nothing. Then today (April 13th), exactly one month late, two ducks dutifully arrived. Unfortunately, before they even had a chance to apologise for being late the dog chased them off. (we just got a new dog after the last one died at Christmas and his interpersonal skills are a little under-developed. He is fantastic at football though).
Joe,
I was just making a smartass remark. I was pretty sure that it was going to be a short cold spell and you are right to point in out. That’s just how weather and climate data is but the trend is clear.
Hoo boy…can’t wait for the April results.
This will show those delayers!
Wait a minute….if I win….I lose…
That’s what is funniest of all. 10 years of cooling means nothing, but 1 month of warming is everything lol. It’s not even a 3-year record. On the other hand the trimester was the coldest since the nineties. And sea ice anomaly is still at +1 million square Kilometres. Yes, it is a POSITIVE anomaly. +1 million. I wonder what Joe will say when it becomes a negative anomaly. Which it will, I am absolutely sure. But that’s not the point. The point is the averages slowly going into more cooling. You have to go back to 1996 to find a longer-lasting positive anomaly of more than 1M km2.
That’s what is funniest of all. 10 years of cooling means nothing, but 1 month of warming is everything lol. It’s not even a 3-year record. On the other hand the trimester was the coldest since the nineties. And sea ice anomaly is still at +1 million square Kilometres. Yes, it is a POSITIVE anomaly. +1 million. I wonder what Joe will say when it becomes a negative anomaly. Which it will, I am absolutely sure. But that’s not the point. The point is the averages slowly going into more cooling. You have to go back to 1996 to find a longer-lasting positive anomaly of more than 1M km2.
(By the way, it is freezing here in Spain this April…)
“(By the way, it is freezing here in Spain this April…)”
Ah… the stick-your-head-out-a-window school of climateology.
While I tend to lean toward the skeptical view that we still don’t know enough about what’s going on to accurately predict what’s going to happen (wasn’t the earth supposed to be covered in glaciers by now, according to 1970s’ science?) I’m rooting for renewable energy, am willing to push for an end to non-renewable resource exploitation, and more sane practices all around. I for one want my daughter and her children to live in a better world, and want her to live to see her 30th birthday!
Hey, there are still strong Global Cooling advocates, and they can make some fairly convincing arguments as well. My own take is that we don’t know what the hell is going on but that our best bet is to have as little impact as 6+ billion people can, lest we screw something up ourselves. Let nature screw things up for us! Heh.
Fully agreed, regeya. I support any help for the development of new clean energy systems. The sooner the better (after all, oil won’t be there forever for us to burn it). But I am against blaming the consumer and against creating such things as CO2 markets to pay for what is free and is not a pollutant, with also null efects regarding total emissions because the biggest emitters like China or India will never sign any treaty and risk their chances of quick economic development. All they will get is fabrics moving to China. All those which can, at least.
I am not putting a technology leap in my plans, and I don’t need it because I don’t think we are in an inminent risk of any catastrophic cataclysm. I am, however, well aware that the more funds we dedicate to investigation on new technologies, the more probable it is that the technology leap will happen and the sooner that will take place. May it be in 1 month, 5 years or 30.
Nylo — The farmers will disagree with you. The entire Mediterrean basin is drying up, making the practice of agriculture difficult. If global warming is allowed to continue, the American mid-west will eventually become like Australia, unable to grow (much) wheat.
Have you noticed in the news that the world is running out of food? The situatiion will become (slowly) worse.
The world does not have food problems but feeding problems because of the fantastic idea of the biofuels, which uses the food for something different from feeding. Don’t YOU read the news? The mediterranean may be drying up, yes, but food productivity has not ever stopped increasing. And there is no proof that the drying is a result of the global warming, no matter what the alarmists want to claim, they have no proof. I would rather blame the increasing population, which increases the water consumption from the reservoirs, and because of that they are running out of it.
In Spain there’s an interesting grant from the UE of 45€ for every Ha that you cultivate for biofuels, and also, because a 10% of every fuel will have to be biofuel in a short time, farmers are increasing the price of their products because they know that petrol companies are going to be forced to buy them anyway. And they will sell them to the petrol companies unless the people who want the products for eating are willing to pay as much. THAT is what increases the price of the products. Not shortage. There are lots of corn out there, if you want to pay for it.
It’s fantastic when idealists with no idea of the real issues make it to the government and mess up with the free market.
Actually, the pattern of hotter summers and cooler winters should become more apparent as the eliptical orbit of the earth becomes elongated on its 100,000 year cycle. Eventually the amount of time spent in the farthest distances from the sun (ie winters) will become longer than the amount of time in the summer. This pattern at first will produce an effect where it seems that summers are way to hot, but soon the length of the winter will be so long that even the brief warm up in the summer won’t be enough to overcome the ice build up. Thus an ige age.
Look at today, in the beginning of August there is a cold front that will reach all the way to the gulf of mexico. This has been happening for most of the summer. Winter weather patterns are setting up in mid summer. So even though its hotter than normal, the earth is changing into a winter pattern earlier and earlier each year, eventually the summer pattern will dissapear and you will have cold air from the north reaching all the way to the gulf all year round. The question is, how much time before we reach that. Good luck getting a straight answer from Noaa.
@ Darryl –
I’ve never heard this theory. Could you please provide a source?
Nice Poetic hyperbole:
“At this rate I’m afraid, we have only a couple of decades before the Earth becomes another Venus.”
I wish there was more than this, the rate of inevitable change is a hugely important topic.
Anyone know of a site that may offer model and scenarios updates?
I don’t understand Darryl’s reference to a “100,000 year cycle” of the sun. One rotation around the earth’s axis = one solar day. One revolution of the earth around the sun, which completes the earths entire orbit around the sun, = one solar year.
Although the earth’s orbit around the sun is slightly eliptical, it is also close to being a perfect circle. The earth at its fartherest point away from the sun takes place on July 4th. (Interesting coicidence, isn’t it?) That point is called “aphelion.”
The point at which the earth is closest to the sun takes place on January 3rd. That point is called “perihelion.”
You can check this website for a simple explanation of the above.
http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/6h.html
The only other “cycle” in relation to the earth and the sun that I know of is the precessional, in which the point of the earth’s axis traces a circle against the fixed stars in the background. (Along with eventually changing the North star, and moving the location of the equinoxes slightly every year.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precession_(astronomy)
P.S. The difference in the earth’s distance from the sun when it is fartherest away and at its closest, BTW, is aprx. 4.4 million km.
Which raises another observation: in an elliptical orbit, there are two points at the end of the ellipse, as cited above, not just one.
No flames intended. All I am saying is that this is all I know about a cycle in reference to the earth’s orbit. I don’t know anything about a 100,000 year orbit and I would like to find out more about it.
Laura,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
Er you say we will end up like Venus? This is wrong unless you are exagerating! To say we will have global warming is one thing, but to try to say that Earth will become like Venus is totally at odds with thinking. In fact there is a greater chance of a snowball earth statistically than a Venus earth. Let us recall that Earth has been much hotter in MOSt of its past and yet no venus climate ever occured. Indeed once, Earth’s temps hit 50C on average, yet again no venus climate occured so we can be sure that we are safe from this outcome.
It would thus make more sense to prepare your kids for an ice age then a venus age if you look at it statistically.
Where did you get your data from to confidently say that the last two month are showing a warming trend when physical evidence shows otherwise?