Comments on: Peak-a-boo: Goldman says oil ‘likely’ to hit $150-$200 by 2010. That means $5+ gasoline. http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sun, 08 Nov 2009 08:19:29 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: sustanon http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-16568 sustanon Wed, 23 Jul 2008 11:03:12 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-16568 This makes me think that GS is talking up demand in oil futures so that GS can unload their long positions for a profit and enter into short positions for a coming decline in oil prices. This makes me think that GS is talking up demand in oil futures so that GS can unload their long positions for a profit and enter into short positions for a coming decline in oil prices.

]]> By: Marc http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12235 Marc Thu, 08 May 2008 16:56:05 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12235 Here are several starting points for alternative economic policy and radical social change. I welcome your comments and suggestions on reinvigorating and redirecting public discussion on future necessities and short-term "economic laws." (1) Creation of a social net is a precondition for sharing work and reducing working hours. If everyone had health care, people would share their work and be free from enlavement to alienating work. (2) Reducing working hours is the most vital step to conserving energy. (3) Conservation is more effective than building more coal and nuclear power plants. (4) Building community centers and infrastructure investments have multiplier effects. Public spirit eviscerated by privatization can revive when health care, housing and education are seen as priorities for a social state. (5) The world is turning from Bushism, the Washington Consensus, the "panacea" of market opening that has led to the global food crisis. (6) The melting of the dollar should mean the melting of Republicanism. People can unite on vision and turn from voodoo and witchcraft economics! Here are several starting points for alternative economic policy and radical social change. I welcome your comments and suggestions on reinvigorating and redirecting public discussion on future necessities and short-term “economic laws.”
(1) Creation of a social net is a precondition for sharing work and reducing working hours. If everyone had health care, people would share their work and be free from enlavement to alienating work.
(2) Reducing working hours is the most vital step to conserving energy.
(3) Conservation is more effective than building more coal and nuclear power plants.
(4) Building community centers and infrastructure investments have multiplier effects. Public spirit eviscerated by privatization can revive when health care, housing and education are seen as priorities for a social state.
(5) The world is turning from Bushism, the Washington Consensus, the “panacea” of market opening that has led to the global food crisis.
(6) The melting of the dollar should mean the melting of Republicanism. People can unite on vision and turn from voodoo and witchcraft economics!

]]> By: Robert http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12221 Robert Thu, 08 May 2008 08:39:47 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12221 Lamont - your post does not make much sense. Oil cannot be stored in significant quantities once it has been extracted. Nor can it be disposed of (in the way that rotten bananas can be chucked away). Therefore supply = demand in anything other than the very short term. The only variable is price and the current escalation in price demonstrates how price-inelastic demand is. i.e. people will go on using their cars even if gas doubles or trebles in price. Here in the UK petrol is over £1.10 a litre and it has made no difference at all to driving patterns - the M25 is still a car park most of the time. For all these reasons the idea that "demand destruction" will bring down prices makes no sense whatsoever. Lamont – your post does not make much sense. Oil cannot be stored in significant quantities once it has been extracted. Nor can it be disposed of (in the way that rotten bananas can be chucked away). Therefore supply = demand in anything other than the very short term. The only variable is price and the current escalation in price demonstrates how price-inelastic demand is. i.e. people will go on using their cars even if gas doubles or trebles in price. Here in the UK petrol is over £1.10 a litre and it has made no difference at all to driving patterns – the M25 is still a car park most of the time. For all these reasons the idea that “demand destruction” will bring down prices makes no sense whatsoever.

]]> By: Lamont http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12212 Lamont Thu, 08 May 2008 02:11:23 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12212 hmmm.... that's annoying... last half of my post got eaten.... anyway, peak oil is only about the supply-side and only long term. its not about the short-term. prices can decline purely for technical/sentiment reasons. its also not about prices directly, since high prices could induce demand to fall which could cause prices to decline. i would treat the announcement from GS as a contrarian indicator and expect over the course of 3-6 months for oil to fall below its current level. hmmm…. that’s annoying… last half of my post got eaten….

anyway, peak oil is only about the supply-side and only long term.

its not about the short-term. prices can decline purely for technical/sentiment reasons.

its also not about prices directly, since high prices could induce demand to fall which could cause prices to decline.

i would treat the announcement from GS as a contrarian indicator and expect over the course of 3-6 months for oil to fall below its current level.

]]> By: Lamont http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12211 Lamont Thu, 08 May 2008 02:07:59 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12211 Peak oil predicts the supply side of the equation over the course of decades. It does not tell you about the demand side, and it tells you nothing about supply and demand, speculation and sentiment over the course of minutes, hours, days or months. Oil crashing back down to $60/bbl 3 months from now wouldn't invalidate peak oil theories at all (not saying anything about >= 3 months from now -- could rebound rally to $200/bbl after that). Now if we suddenly found another 5 Mbd of production capacity and oil permanently fell to Peak oil predicts the supply side of the equation over the course of decades. It does not tell you about the demand side, and it tells you nothing about supply and demand, speculation and sentiment over the course of minutes, hours, days or months.

Oil crashing back down to $60/bbl 3 months from now wouldn’t invalidate peak oil theories at all (not saying anything about >= 3 months from now — could rebound rally to $200/bbl after that).

Now if we suddenly found another 5 Mbd of production capacity and oil permanently fell to

]]> By: John Mashey http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12201 John Mashey Wed, 07 May 2008 21:12:05 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12201 re: GS So, read <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2981" rel="nofollow"> Lord Ron Oxburgh, geoscientist & ex-Chairman of Shell</a>, who was talking about peak Oil & global warming years ago. I might ignore GS, but I wouldn't ignore him - he's very smart, he's very straightforward in saying what he thinks, and as Shell Chairman, quite possibly might have adequate access to real information. re: GS
So, read Lord Ron Oxburgh, geoscientist & ex-Chairman of Shell, who was talking about peak Oil & global warming years ago. I might ignore GS, but I wouldn’t ignore him – he’s very smart, he’s very straightforward in saying what he thinks, and as Shell Chairman, quite possibly might have adequate access to real information.

]]> By: Lamont http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12190 Lamont Wed, 07 May 2008 18:23:35 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12190 Goldman Sachs routinely makes announcements in one direction, while doing the opposite. This makes me think that GS is talking up demand in oil futures so that GS can unload their long positions for a profit and enter into short positions for a coming decline in oil prices. Goldman Sachs routinely makes announcements in one direction, while doing the opposite.

This makes me think that GS is talking up demand in oil futures so that GS can unload their long positions for a profit and enter into short positions for a coming decline in oil prices.

]]> By: charlie http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12175 charlie Wed, 07 May 2008 06:28:11 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12175 Gas at $10 a gallon doesn't prevent cars from running in the UK. Gas at $8 a gallon is workable in europe. I think we are overestimating the cost of gas in driving -- it is still a smaller component than depreciation (not to mention parking and insurance). The real problem is gas increases are driving up inflation across the board. Carbon "taxes" don't make much sense when energy costs are increasing. substitution taxes make some sense -- driving up mass transit usage -- but to move the country to a level around Chicago -- 25% of the workforce using transit -- might require a trillion dollar investment and take 25 years. And transit systems like Chicago don't answer the problem of all the non-communing trips you do in a car. That might require a move to a NYC level -- which is frankly impossible. Gas at $10 a gallon doesn’t prevent cars from running in the UK. Gas at $8 a gallon is workable in europe. I think we are overestimating the cost of gas in driving — it is still a smaller component than depreciation (not to mention parking and insurance).

The real problem is gas increases are driving up inflation across the board. Carbon “taxes” don’t make much sense when energy costs are increasing. substitution taxes make some sense — driving up mass transit usage — but to move the country to a level around Chicago — 25% of the workforce using transit — might require a trillion dollar investment and take 25 years. And transit systems like Chicago don’t answer the problem of all the non-communing trips you do in a car. That might require a move to a NYC level — which is frankly impossible.

]]> By: John Mashey http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12171 John Mashey Wed, 07 May 2008 05:27:08 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12171 1) My wife just got back from UK, read the complaints the the papers about $4/gal gas. Was not overly impressed. 2) <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/update" rel="nofollow">The Oil Drum</a> has survey of predictions, of which mean & median are shown in solid red. This has typical Hubbert profile, with a flat-looking plateau, and then drops, and then drops steeper. Right now, we have: a) Flat production. b) Increasing demand 1 (China, India) c) Increasing demand 2 (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc, subsidizing gas internally) If the referenced chart is anywhere near close, we'll keep b) and c), but get: a) Decreasing production. 3) Regarding gas tax holidays, I recommend Australian economist John Quiggin's <a href="http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/03/holiday-from-sanity/" rel="nofollow">Holiday froim Sanity</a>. 1) My wife just got back from UK, read the complaints the the papers about $4/gal gas. Was not overly impressed.

2) The Oil Drum has survey of predictions, of which mean & median are shown in solid red.

This has typical Hubbert profile, with a flat-looking plateau, and then drops, and then drops steeper.

Right now, we have:
a) Flat production.
b) Increasing demand 1 (China, India)
c) Increasing demand 2 (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc, subsidizing gas internally)

If the referenced chart is anywhere near close, we’ll keep b) and c), but get:
a) Decreasing production.

3) Regarding gas tax holidays, I recommend Australian economist John Quiggin’s Holiday froim Sanity.

]]> By: Greg http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12170 Greg Wed, 07 May 2008 05:06:05 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/06/peak-a-boo-goldman-says-oil-likely-to-hit-150-200-by-2010-that-means-5-gasoline/#comment-12170 Look a little further than transport, people. This will drive up the cost of food too. The future we are choosing for ourselves is starting to look more and more like "Soylent Green" . Look a little further than transport, people. This will drive up the cost of food too.

The future we are choosing for ourselves is starting to look more and more like “Soylent Green” .

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