Comments on: The Last Father’s Day http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/15/the-last-fathers-day/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Thu, 04 Dec 2008 21:14:53 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1 By: Ecostew http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/15/the-last-fathers-day/#comment-14498 Ecostew Sun, 15 Jun 2008 22:03:24 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/15/the-last-fathers-day/#comment-14498 If we are to move forward on mitigating AGW, the main-stream news media must step up as well as politicans and be informed by our peer-reviewed science - reject the non-science. Let's see some Father's step up. Thanks Joe. If we are to move forward on mitigating AGW, the main-stream news media must step up as well as politicans and be informed by our peer-reviewed science - reject the non-science. Let’s see some Father’s step up. Thanks Joe.

]]> By: Earl Killian http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/15/the-last-fathers-day/#comment-14505 Earl Killian Sun, 15 Jun 2008 23:18:10 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/15/the-last-fathers-day/#comment-14505 The scary thing about world population is that a log graph of it still looks like an exponential function: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:World_population_curve_-_log_y_scale.png I.e. population has been growing faster than exponential! 8,000 BCE 5 million 6,000 BCE 10 million (2,000 years to double) 4,000 BCE 20 million (2,000 years to double) 2,000 BCE 35 million (2,000 years to almost double) 500 BCE 100 million (1,500 years to triple) 1 CE 200 million (500 years to double) 1000 CE 310 million (1,000 years to grow by 50%) 1750 CE 791 million (750 years to grow by 150%) 1900 CE 1,650 million (150 years to double) 1965 CE 3,335 million (65 years to double) 2007 CE 6,600 million (42 years to double) Yes, most projections have a screeching halt by 2050, but the most likely cause of that is a catastrophe, which might do more than simply halt growth. Compound growth is completely incompatible with a finite world except in the short term. Even rates as low as 1% yield huge numbers over the length of human history. For example, take the period in King's book <i>Farmers of Forth Centuries</i>: 1% growth for 4,000 years (compounded annually) multiplies things by 192,972,369,947,315,104. The current resource usage of anything which we use more than 31,000 tonnes today multiplied by this exceed the mass of the Earth in 4,000 years at 1% growth. The scary thing about world population is that a log graph of it still looks like an exponential function:
http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/ Image:World_population_curve_-_log_y_scale.png
I.e. population has been growing faster than exponential!
8,000 BCE 5 million
6,000 BCE 10 million (2,000 years to double)
4,000 BCE 20 million (2,000 years to double)
2,000 BCE 35 million (2,000 years to almost double)
500 BCE 100 million (1,500 years to triple)
1 CE 200 million (500 years to double)
1000 CE 310 million (1,000 years to grow by 50%)
1750 CE 791 million (750 years to grow by 150%)
1900 CE 1,650 million (150 years to double)
1965 CE 3,335 million (65 years to double)
2007 CE 6,600 million (42 years to double)
Yes, most projections have a screeching halt by 2050, but the most likely cause of that is a catastrophe, which might do more than simply halt growth.

Compound growth is completely incompatible with a finite world except in the short term. Even rates as low as 1% yield huge numbers over the length of human history. For example, take the period in King’s book Farmers of Forth Centuries: 1% growth for 4,000 years (compounded annually) multiplies things by 192,972,369,947,315,104. The current resource usage of anything which we use more than 31,000 tonnes today multiplied by this exceed the mass of the Earth in 4,000 years at 1% growth.

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