Comments on: Yes, the globe is warming. But how fast? http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sun, 08 Nov 2009 09:04:01 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Joseph http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-16021 Joseph Mon, 14 Jul 2008 17:14:08 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-16021 For anyone interested, I posted a <a href="http://residualanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/hurricanes-and-global-warming-revisited.html" rel="nofollow">follow-up</a> of the temperature vs. named storms analysis. Look for the graph there. This is actually a much simpler and obvious way to illustrate the association. For anyone interested, I posted a follow-up of the temperature vs. named storms analysis. Look for the graph there. This is actually a much simpler and obvious way to illustrate the association.

]]> By: Joseph http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15754 Joseph Wed, 09 Jul 2008 23:15:31 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15754 <i>As I couldnt post a comment on your blog </i> BTW, I just noticed I was requiring a Blogger account to post, which was unintentional. It's fixed. As I couldnt post a comment on your blog

BTW, I just noticed I was requiring a Blogger account to post, which was unintentional. It’s fixed.

]]> By: Joseph http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15753 Joseph Wed, 09 Jul 2008 23:04:09 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15753 <i>The storm frequency seems to lag temp slightly and there appears to be a gentle fit on the sinusoidal average that visually seems to run through both graphs.</i> Yes; 1 year appears to be the best lag, but I don't know what explains that. I thought that maybe including September, October and November in the year average amounted to including next year's data in the current year. But it doesn't look like that's it. The storm frequency seems to lag temp slightly and there appears to be a gentle fit on the sinusoidal average that visually seems to run through both graphs.

Yes; 1 year appears to be the best lag, but I don’t know what explains that. I thought that maybe including September, October and November in the year average amounted to including next year’s data in the current year. But it doesn’t look like that’s it.

]]> By: paulm http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15725 paulm Wed, 09 Jul 2008 18:07:23 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15725 Can I suggest that we point nonbelievers (deniers) to Joseph's original post on this post ( comments should be read) . http://autismnaturalvariation.blogspot.com/2008/06/anthropogenic-global-warming-is.html Here in a straightforward manner, he clearly and eloquently uses statics on raw data available to us all, to conclusively show the link between man made emissions of CO2 and temperature rise over the last century. It stops deniers in their tracks - as you can see from the following comments. On his new site to deal with the topic - 'Residual Analysis - A closer look at scientific data and claims' http://residualanalysis.blogspot.com/ (Hey Joe, Joseph needs some accolade and his site needs promotion) he clearly shows, using basic statistic to laypersons, how a number of climate change issues / trends are shown to be true to a very high confidence. The insurance industry should be interested in this. I am sure this analysis must have been done previously, if not - WOW. It certainly hasn't been made readily available to the public, which it should, as it is very convincing. Can I suggest that we point nonbelievers (deniers) to Joseph’s original post on this post ( comments should be read) .

http://autismnaturalvariation.blogspot.com/ 2008/ 06/ anthropogenic-global-warming-is.html

Here in a straightforward manner, he clearly and eloquently uses statics on raw data available to us all, to conclusively show the link between man made emissions of CO2 and temperature rise over the last century. It stops deniers in their tracks – as you can see from the following comments.

On his new site to deal with the topic -
‘Residual Analysis – A closer look at scientific data and claims’

http://residualanalysis.blogspot.com/

(Hey Joe, Joseph needs some accolade and his site needs promotion)

he clearly shows, using basic statistic to laypersons, how a number of climate change issues / trends are shown to be true to a very high confidence. The insurance industry should be interested in this. I am sure this analysis must have been done previously, if not – WOW. It certainly hasn’t been made readily available to the public, which it should, as it is very convincing.

]]> By: John Hollenberg http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15721 John Hollenberg Wed, 09 Jul 2008 16:50:48 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15721 > Okay lets go over it again. The globe is cooling. If tamino says otherwise tamino is a fraud. The globe is cooling. Joe, is there some reason to allow this debunked nonsense to be posted here? [<em>JR: My apologies. I spent the day writing, not reading comments. Silly me!</em>] > Okay lets go over it again. The globe is cooling. If tamino says otherwise tamino is a fraud. The globe is cooling.

Joe, is there some reason to allow this debunked nonsense to be posted here?

[JR: My apologies. I spent the day writing, not reading comments. Silly me!]

]]> By: Graeme Bird http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15715 Graeme Bird Wed, 09 Jul 2008 16:20:35 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15715 "Personally I’m getting sick and tired of the planet is cooling bs...." If the planet is cooling, why is all the bloody ice melting?" Well you are going to have to get over your tiredness. Because thats what is happening. [<em>JR: Rest of post deleted. We try to deal in citable, scientific sources here. Not disinformation.</em>] “Personally I’m getting sick and tired of the planet is cooling bs….”
If the planet is cooling, why is all the bloody ice melting?”

Well you are going to have to get over your tiredness. Because thats what is happening.

[JR: Rest of post deleted. We try to deal in citable, scientific sources here. Not disinformation.]

]]> By: John Hartz http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15706 John Hartz Wed, 09 Jul 2008 13:50:15 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15706 Will Nitschke: The graph that you have referenced addresses just two dimensions of sea ice, i.e., witdth and breadth. It does not address the third dimension, i.e., depth. For comprehensive and up-to-date analyses of sea ice, go to the website of the The National Snow and Ice Data Center at: http://nsidc.org/ Will Nitschke: The graph that you have referenced addresses just two dimensions of sea ice, i.e., witdth and breadth. It does not address the third dimension, i.e., depth. For comprehensive and up-to-date analyses of sea ice, go to the website of the The National Snow and Ice Data Center at: http://nsidc.org/

]]> By: Will Nitschke http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15699 Will Nitschke Wed, 09 Jul 2008 10:11:19 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15699 Official stats on global sea ice extent here: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg The ice is not melting and the sky is not falling. There is no significant overall trend as there is increased ice cover in the south and decreased in the north, but all of this is very seasonal. It's too early to say at this stage if there is a cooling trend. Seems everyone here has already made up their minds. We'll see what the data tells us in a year or two from now. Official stats on global sea ice extent here:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/ cryosphere/ IMAGES/ global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

The ice is not melting and the sky is not falling. There is no significant overall trend as there is increased ice cover in the south and decreased in the north, but all of this is very seasonal. It’s too early to say at this stage if there is a cooling trend. Seems everyone here has already made up their minds. We’ll see what the data tells us in a year or two from now.

]]> By: paulm http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15695 paulm Wed, 09 Jul 2008 05:53:42 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15695 Joseph, You have a great site. I look forward to new posts. As I couldnt post a comment on your blog here is a comment on .... Hurricanes and Temperature are Indeed Associated The storm frequency seems to lag temp slightly and there appears to be a gentle fit on the sinusoidal average that visually seems to run through both graphs. Joseph, You have a great site. I look forward to new posts.

As I couldnt post a comment on your blog here is a comment on ….
Hurricanes and Temperature are Indeed Associated

The storm frequency seems to lag temp slightly and there appears to be a gentle fit on the sinusoidal average that visually seems to run through both graphs.

]]> By: Joseph http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15688 Joseph Wed, 09 Jul 2008 04:11:43 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/08/yes-the-globe-is-warming-but-how-fast/#comment-15688 I'm new to the temperature and related data, but I've analyzed it, and I'm a bit concerned. First, it doesn't look like it is generally known what the equilibrium temperature should be given current levels of CO2. Calculations based on physics equations probably underestimate. I doubt it's 1 degree (C). So we're probably working our way up to a pretty high temperature value, regardless of whether CO2 concentration continues to increase. We'd have to decrease CO2 concentration pretty drastically to minimize the end result. I’m new to the temperature and related data, but I’ve analyzed it, and I’m a bit concerned. First, it doesn’t look like it is generally known what the equilibrium temperature should be given current levels of CO2. Calculations based on physics equations probably underestimate. I doubt it’s 1 degree (C). So we’re probably working our way up to a pretty high temperature value, regardless of whether CO2 concentration continues to increase. We’d have to decrease CO2 concentration pretty drastically to minimize the end result.

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