Comments on: U.S. driving is down 10 billion miles in May and 30 billion year to date

By: JCH

JCH — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:16:50 +0000

Just me, but without the subprime mess, I think US drivers would have raced right through 4 bucks a gallon. After all, they raced right through $3.50, $3.65, etc.

This is more about subprime than it is about 4 bucks.

In a great economy, what is 4 bucks? At 4 bucks many people would go for better mileage vehicles, but would drive just as much, and perhaps more.

By: llewelly

llewelly — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 04:07:56 +0000

There are many things other than gas which are limiting US drivers spending money. JCH mentioned the subprime ~~scam~~ loan meltdown. I’ll mention the recent rise in cost of food, and the drops in employment rates and wages.

By: Paul K

Paul K — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 05:13:35 +0000

It would be interesting to know how much of the reduction is truck miles and if there is a parallel increase in railroad cartage. A billion sounds like a lot of miles, but with 100,000,000 million vehicles it’s only 10 miles apiece.

The gas tipping point was below $3.50. You’ll notice the miles driven chart levels off around 2004. Unlike climate science where 15 years or more are required to identify a trend, in driving miles I think we can safely say people started watching their driving long before gas hit $4.

Many have waited for a gas price high enough to force use of alternatives. Wait no longer. That price has long been reached. Ford, General Motors and Toyota quickly sell every hybrid they produce. Cities are snapping up hybrid buses. The alternative automotive revolution is here and consumers are eager for the new products.

By: Kristina Bigdeli

Kristina Bigdeli — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 05:54:46 +0000

I just read an article in the NY Times where a guy figures that he would only be spending $50 more for a family vacation from LA to Vegas.

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/ 2008/ 07/ 28/ how-much-i-spent-on-my-summer-vacation/ index.html

Paul K, I really think these miles are saved by the cross-country truck drivers who can’t afford to fill their huge tanks before making drop-offs.

By: paulm

paulm — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 08:28:00 +0000

I think US citizens are becoming more aware of AGW and are trying to do something about it….

Does this graph predict a recession?

By: Ronald

Ronald — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:03:35 +0000

That’s all interesting speculation on why the numbers are down. There were little blips in total mileage during the 2001 recession? and the 1990 recessions, but nothing like what’s going on now.

The question to ask is what would happen if all those vehicles were PHEV’s. Electricity to charge the vehicle being 3 to 4 times cheaper than what people are paying now for gasoline, the PHEV’ers would have less of a reason to cut down on mileage than people have now. They might then drive more than the projections and be more a burden on the electrical system than thought.

By: Dennis

Dennis — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 14:09:42 +0000

I read in today’s NYT that, because the drop in driving is causing less Federal taxes to go into the transportation trust fund, the Bush administration is considering taking money from the mass transit fund and using it for roads. With $4/gallon gasoline, we need more money for public transit — not less!

By: charlie

charlie — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:06:52 +0000

don’t believe the hype about the drop in federal gas taxes. Even if we have a 10% drop in VMT, then we need a 10% hike in the federal gas tax: a whopping two cents per gallon.

And the DOT numbers are suspect as well. They are based on hourly traffic count data collected from “4,000 continuous traffic counting locations nationwide”. I can see hundreds of problems with this collection of data. I suspect the VMT trends are just a reflection of a few workers taking public transit or car pooling.