Dateline Earth -
A first: circumnavigating the Western Hemisphere
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/ environment/ archives/ 152606.asp

Posted by Concerned_Citizen at 10/27/08 2:23 p.m.

From the article:
“as climate change melts the polar ice quicker”

This is not true:
Arctic Sea Ice is Now 31.3% Higher than Last Year
On 10/17/2007 the Sea ice was at 5,663,125 square km.
On 10/17/2008 the Sea ice was at 7,436,406 square km.

Δice = 1,773,281 sqkm or 31.3% more than last year

wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/18/ice-reali
ty-check-scientists-counter-latest-arcti
c-record-warmth-claims-as-pseudoscience/

Even better:
The Arctic Sea ice area is approaching the edge of ‘normal’ standard deviation

Look at this analysis:
wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-a
pproaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-d
eviation/

2008 Sea ice area has even passed the level from 2006.

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What are your thoughts related to this posting in the SeattlePI.com blog?

Looking forward to reading your comments.

[JR: Yes, we heard the exact same thing last year. This new ice is much thinner and frankly doesn't thicken much during the winter. That's why it disintegrate so quickly in the spring and summer.]

Cultural lore and observations of Alaskan and Arctic rim natives are better than US and Russian navy data because they preceed the age of submarines.

If those individuals say ‘record breaking’ that is good enough for me.

John McCormick

Anything before satellites and today’s accurate equipment and systems is anyone’s guess. The U.S. and Russian Navy have a lot of data over the last few decades, but they tend to keep a lot of it under wraps for their own use. They know a lot more about whats taking place in the arctic than most. We only get to see what they want us to see. Eventually, they’ll release their data and everything we thought was going on is usually only half right. I’ve seen this before.

I do agree that the north pole will eventually be ice free, and I do believe that positive feedbacks like the melting of the tundra will accelerate this trend faster than most ‘mainstream’ (IPCC, etc) climate models suggest. It is just unlikely to be a monotonic series of consistent records all the way down to zero ice. The danger is that at some point we get 3+ years in a row with no new record and the deniers/delayers start hooting about how we’ve got it all wrong…

Generally in studying any noisy series (from global temperature to the stock market) if you are making new highs (or lows) then its likely that you’ll pull back while still maintaining the trend. In the stock market this becomes an excellent time to buy or sell provided that you feel the primary trend is still going the direction you expect. In global climate, counter-trend reactions within the main trend are opportunities for the deniers to claim that the trend has reversed.

2008 was on track to not be a new record until recently. Right now its a bit of a horserace with 2008 catching up with 2007 and the melt increasing rapidly. The danger is that we wind up betting on this horserace like it means something with respect to global climate change. If the storms in the arctic abate today and 2008 fails to hit 2007s record melt that will change nothing about the climate trend. However, if 2008 fails to hit 2007s record, I expect that deniers/delayers will claim their horse came in and that we’re all wrong.

Personally, I’m cautiously betting that 2009 will be hotter than 1998 and that with near certainty the 1998 record will fall by 2012. That horserace is a little more interesting, since I think that trend is due to pay off. It is like a stock that has pulled back nicely, set up a base, gotten a lot of short interest and skeptics who think the stock will fall and it is primed to advance higher.

I saw one statement that the resulting smoke was keeping some of Alaska cooler this summer. Certainly has made for cooler days here close to the fires.

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Do we have any data as to the average thickness of the ice (extent of “new” ice) in 2007 vs. 2008?

It seems to me that we’re now melting new, thin ice and shouldn’t be surprised if open water areas quickly equal or exceed the 2007 level given that we’re likely melting away a thin film of ice.

We’ve got another 4-6 weeks in the melting season. Lots of opportunity to set a new (and highly undesirable) record.

–

(Sorry Richard. You attempt at humor and my attempt at humor add up to an indication that neither of us should pursue a career in the comedy field at this time. ;o)

I agree with you on the ‘record setting’ comment. But, I believe the climate trend towards warmer temperatures has set in firmly and overrides the ‘weather’ affect on Arctic ice.

I have assembled a slide show of meltback since 1979 and it is obvious that ‘weather’ has trended towards warmer atmosphere and ocean currents in the West Arctic.

If I take your comment:

[I’m saying the record set last year is weather]

as last year’s record being an isolated event, I agree.

But, we know the melt records are going to become a function of now too much new ice breaking up and melting earlier each melt season (wave action being an increasingly greater factor).

The only factor I can imagine changing that dynamic is sustained cloud cover blocking the sunlight.

Thanks for your response.

John McCormick