Comments on: Yes, the planet has kept warming since 1998 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sat, 21 Nov 2009 19:49:54 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: shop http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-28040 shop Sun, 25 Jan 2009 17:58:22 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-28040 It is possible that the NASA approach underestimates the rate of warming in the Arctic Ocean, but for the sake of argument let’s assume that the Hadley record is the most accurate reflection of changes in global surface temperatures. Doesn’t it show that the world has cooled since the record warmth of 1998, as many claim? Not necessarily. The Hadley record is based only on surface temperatures, so it reflects only what’s happening to the very thin layer where air meets the land and sea. In the long term, what matters is how much heat is gained or lost by the entire planet - what climate scientists call the “top of the atmosphere” radiation budget - and falling surface temperatures do not prove that the entire planet is losing heat. It is possible that the NASA approach underestimates the rate of warming in the Arctic Ocean, but for the sake of argument let’s assume that the Hadley record is the most accurate reflection of changes in global surface temperatures. Doesn’t it show that the world has cooled since the record warmth of 1998, as many claim?

Not necessarily. The Hadley record is based only on surface temperatures, so it reflects only what’s happening to the very thin layer where air meets the land and sea.

In the long term, what matters is how much heat is gained or lost by the entire planet – what climate scientists call the “top of the atmosphere” radiation budget – and falling surface temperatures do not prove that the entire planet is losing heat.

]]> By: Sam Eagle http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-22429 Sam Eagle Tue, 18 Nov 2008 18:52:44 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-22429 What would be the ideal temperature to set the Earth's thermostat to, if you could? What would be the ideal temperature to set the Earth’s thermostat to, if you could?

]]> By: Peter Holubz IV http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-22428 Peter Holubz IV Tue, 18 Nov 2008 18:50:58 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-22428 Tim Patterson, a paleoclimatologist from the department of Earth sciences, will give an opposing view to Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth. Patterson is speaking at a Canadian Club of London luncheon. He believes we should expect global cooling rather than global warming in the coming years. "We're off on the wrong foot," he says. "There's been no global warming in the 21st century." Climate change is not caused by humans, but by natural forces, Patterson says. http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/News/Local/2008/11/17/7433876-sun.html Tim Patterson, a paleoclimatologist from the department of Earth sciences, will give an opposing view to Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth. Patterson is speaking at a Canadian Club of London luncheon.

He believes we should expect global cooling rather than global warming in the coming years.

“We’re off on the wrong foot,” he says. “There’s been no global warming in the 21st century.”

Climate change is not caused by humans, but by natural forces, Patterson says.

http://lfpress.ca/ newsstand/ News/ Local/ 2008/ 11/ 17/ 7433876-sun.html

]]> By: paulm http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-19317 paulm Fri, 19 Sep 2008 15:58:10 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-19317 Here is a good analysis of the data discussing the variability etc <blockquote> <a href="http://residualanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/why-1998-2008-temperature-trend-doesnt.html" rel="nofollow">... current temperature trend is consistent with some projected trend?... ... ...it's a little premature to say that the 1998-2008 trend falsifies 2C / century. Of course, if 2009 is a cold year, that might change this evaluation.</a> </blockquote> http://residualanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/why-1998-2008-temperature-trend-doesnt.html Here is a good analysis of the data discussing the variability etc

… current temperature trend is consistent with some projected trend?…
…
…it’s a little premature to say that the 1998-2008 trend falsifies 2C / century. Of course, if 2009 is a cold year, that might change this evaluation.

http://residualanalysis.blogspot.com/ 2008/ 08/ why-1998-2008-temperature-trend-doesnt.html

]]> By: Michael Le Page http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-18140 Michael Le Page Thu, 28 Aug 2008 10:05:27 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-18140 "Very small area"? According to my quick reality check, at 14 million square kilometres the Arctic Ocean is 10 per cent of the size of the Pacific Ocean, makes up more than 4 per of the total ocean area and nearly 3 per cent of the planet's total surface area. Yup, very small. Nice site, btw. “Very small area”?

According to my quick reality check, at 14 million square kilometres the Arctic Ocean is 10 per cent of the size of the Pacific Ocean, makes up more than 4 per of the total ocean area and nearly 3 per cent of the planet’s total surface area.

Yup, very small.

Nice site, btw.

]]> By: JamesG http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-17954 JamesG Mon, 25 Aug 2008 17:22:04 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-17954 They've only actually made a case that the Arctic is warming while the rest of the planet isn't. This is based on extrapolation ie guesswork but nevertheless since the Arctic is a very small area of the globe, do none of you question why it seems to have such a disproportionate effect on GISS global temperatures? Hadley rightly assumed that skipping the Arctic temps shouldn't make that much difference. And indeed it shouldn't. To get such an effect, your extrapolated temperature must be really huge indeed. The other oddity about GISS is that they have the lowest 1998 peak of all the temperature records. The effect is to promote 2005. And how many of you guys knew that 2005 was also a very strong el niño year? As indeed was the start of 2007 which also gave a false peak in GISS but not in any of the other records. So this extrapolation procedure gives a low 1998, a high 2005 and a higher 2008 than all the other records. And none of you are suspicious! The IPCC prefers Hadley's chart - they likely don't trust Hansen's extrapolations either. They’ve only actually made a case that the Arctic is warming while the rest of the planet isn’t. This is based on extrapolation ie guesswork but nevertheless since the Arctic is a very small area of the globe, do none of you question why it seems to have such a disproportionate effect on GISS global temperatures? Hadley rightly assumed that skipping the Arctic temps shouldn’t make that much difference. And indeed it shouldn’t. To get such an effect, your extrapolated temperature must be really huge indeed. The other oddity about GISS is that they have the lowest 1998 peak of all the temperature records. The effect is to promote 2005. And how many of you guys knew that 2005 was also a very strong el niño year? As indeed was the start of 2007 which also gave a false peak in GISS but not in any of the other records. So this extrapolation procedure gives a low 1998, a high 2005 and a higher 2008 than all the other records. And none of you are suspicious! The IPCC prefers Hadley’s chart – they likely don’t trust Hansen’s extrapolations either.

]]> By: Uosdwis http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-17851 Uosdwis Fri, 22 Aug 2008 02:46:04 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-17851 The deniers will probably jump all over a BBC Science headline "World heading toward cooler 2008." They say it's just a brief pause caused by La Nina, but still will be one of the 10 warmest years since 1850. But, like I said, they'll just see the headline and scream "See? Global warming is over!" The deniers will probably jump all over a BBC Science headline “World heading toward cooler 2008.” They say it’s just a brief pause caused by La Nina, but still will be one of the 10 warmest years since 1850. But, like I said, they’ll just see the headline and scream “See? Global warming is over!”

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-17843 David B. Benson Thu, 21 Aug 2008 21:01:41 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-17843 rpauli --- From the physics, we know that the upward tend began about 1750 CE with the industrial revolution. Its just hard to pick out of the natrual climate variability until about 1980 CE. rpauli — From the physics, we know that the upward tend began about 1750 CE with the industrial revolution. Its just hard to pick out of the natrual climate variability until about 1980 CE.

]]> By: rpauli http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-17839 rpauli Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:18:05 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-17839 As I look at your 3 charts - I see a slope beginning around 1910. As I look at your 3 charts – I see a slope beginning around 1910.

]]> By: paulm http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-17834 paulm Thu, 21 Aug 2008 15:24:26 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/21/debunking-the-myth-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/#comment-17834 Good post, great links. Good post, great links.

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