Comments on: Major hurricane tracks to New Orleans on eve of Republican Convention? http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Fri, 09 Jan 2009 06:15:58 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1 By: Lou Grinzo http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18079 Lou Grinzo Wed, 27 Aug 2008 14:19:25 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18079 I second Joe's recommendation for the weather blog he linked to at the top of this post. The Wunder Blog, in talking about Gustav's chances for strengthening, mentions something called a "loop current eddy". There's one of these in the Gulf now, which is very disturbing, as a similar phenomenon helped blow up Katrina and Rita into category 5 storms in 2005. I second Joe’s recommendation for the weather blog he linked to at the top of this post. The Wunder Blog, in talking about Gustav’s chances for strengthening, mentions something called a “loop current eddy”. There’s one of these in the Gulf now, which is very disturbing, as a similar phenomenon helped blow up Katrina and Rita into category 5 storms in 2005.

]]> By: Joe http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18082 Joe Wed, 27 Aug 2008 14:37:54 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18082 A piece of the Gulf Stream sometimes twists off and forms a warm loop. If a hurricane crosses over it, it intensifies rapidly. If it happens here, I'll blog more about it. A piece of the Gulf Stream sometimes twists off and forms a warm loop. If a hurricane crosses over it, it intensifies rapidly. If it happens here, I’ll blog more about it.

]]> By: Ronald http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18083 Ronald Wed, 27 Aug 2008 15:32:26 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18083 I remember before the 1992 Republican convention, there was a hurricane that was heading for Houston where the convention was. The hurricane moved off to somewhere else, but it interupted the news cycles and discussions enough that the Republican smear machine got untracked for a little while and it made the first President Bush to look unlucky. I remember before the 1992 Republican convention, there was a hurricane that was heading for Houston where the convention was. The hurricane moved off to somewhere else, but it interupted the news cycles and discussions enough that the Republican smear machine got untracked for a little while and it made the first President Bush to look unlucky.

]]> By: Brian D http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18085 Brian D Wed, 27 Aug 2008 15:59:04 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18085 On a side (and comical) note, it looks like <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hj6cPE8zmlE" rel="nofollow">something backfired</a>. On a side (and comical) note, it looks like something backfired.

]]> By: Paul K http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18086 Paul K Wed, 27 Aug 2008 16:25:31 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18086 <a href="http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/" rel="nofollow">SciGuy</a> is also a very good site for hurricane watchers. SciGuy is also a very good site for hurricane watchers.

]]> By: Nick Kong http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18088 Nick Kong Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:09:39 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18088 Let me try to humanize this story a bit: Having personally seen the destruction and response of the US gov't after Katrina (I worked with AmeriCorps*NCCC during the first first wave of disaster relief in Fall, 2005, then again in 2006 for reconstruction), I am very worried for the people there. The sheer destruction of the hurricanes itself, not just the flooding in New Orleans, is phenomenal. For instance, in Pass Christian, only six (yes, six) houses were not destroyed in a town of 6,500. The destruction to the local businesses were staggering (anything from shrimping to casino barges). Those FEMA trailers are not designed to withstand a Hurricane of category 3-5 magnitude. I guess, this time, we'll be lucky as the majority of New Orleans and Mississippi coast residents have yet to return to their homes, lowering any potential damage/loss of lives. I just hope the local governments are taking precaution, setting up emergency relief plans, evacuation plans, etc. One would assume that they have such plans in order since 2005... I agree with you Joe- how many more of these hurricanes can the Gulf take? I hope they don't get a direct hit that rivals Katrina and Rita. Let me try to humanize this story a bit:

Having personally seen the destruction and response of the US gov’t after Katrina (I worked with AmeriCorps*NCCC during the first first wave of disaster relief in Fall, 2005, then again in 2006 for reconstruction), I am very worried for the people there. The sheer destruction of the hurricanes itself, not just the flooding in New Orleans, is phenomenal. For instance, in Pass Christian, only six (yes, six) houses were not destroyed in a town of 6,500. The destruction to the local businesses were staggering (anything from shrimping to casino barges). Those FEMA trailers are not designed to withstand a Hurricane of category 3-5 magnitude.

I guess, this time, we’ll be lucky as the majority of New Orleans and Mississippi coast residents have yet to return to their homes, lowering any potential damage/loss of lives. I just hope the local governments are taking precaution, setting up emergency relief plans, evacuation plans, etc. One would assume that they have such plans in order since 2005…

I agree with you Joe- how many more of these hurricanes can the Gulf take?

I hope they don’t get a direct hit that rivals Katrina and Rita.

]]> By: llewelly http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18089 llewelly Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:54:45 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/27/major-hurricane-tracks-to-new-orleans-on-eve-of-republican-convention/#comment-18089 Although a major hurricane landfall on the gulf coast in the near future is a very real danger, we should keep in mind <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al07/al072008.discus.010.shtml?" rel="nofollow">these words</a>: <blockquote> ... there is very little...if any...skill in intensity predictions at these extended ranges. indeed...if one looks at the latest wind speed probability product included in this package...it can be seen that there is nearly an equal chance that gustav will be a category 1...category 2...or category 3 hurricane at the end of the forecast period. </blockquote> (Conversion to lowercase mine.) The mentioned windspeed product <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al07/al072008.wndprb.010.shtml?" rel="nofollow">here</a> . Certainly, present forecasts for Gustav should be seen as a reminder of how sorely the protection of New Orleans and much of the gulf coast has been neglected, how severely the Bush regime has crippled FEMA, and how a major hurricane landfall on any given gulf coast city is inevitable in the long run. As to the FEMA trailers - I doubt those will fare well in a cat 2 hurricane, much less a 3. If a major hurricane landfall does occur, the reaction to it by the candidates and the fed could well decide the election. Such an event seems more likely to favor Obama than McCain, especially if New Orleans is affected, or, as Joe points out, oil spills result, but it's not at all guaranteed to help Obama, and I hope his people are preparing. Finally I hope everyone in the Caribbean and the Gulf is prepared, and emerges unhurt (but many people in Hati have already died). Although a major hurricane landfall on the gulf coast in the near future is a very real danger, we should keep in mind these words:

… there is very little…if any…skill in
intensity predictions at these extended ranges. indeed…if one
looks at the latest wind speed probability product included in this
package…it can be seen that there is nearly an equal chance that
gustav will be a category 1…category 2…or category 3 hurricane
at the end of the forecast period.

(Conversion to lowercase mine.)
The mentioned windspeed product here .
Certainly, present forecasts for Gustav should be seen as a reminder of how sorely the protection of New Orleans and much of the gulf coast has been neglected, how severely the Bush regime has crippled FEMA, and how a major hurricane landfall on any given gulf coast city is inevitable in the long run. As to the FEMA trailers - I doubt those will fare well in a cat 2 hurricane, much less a 3.
If a major hurricane landfall does occur, the reaction to it by the candidates and the fed could well decide the election. Such an event seems more likely to favor Obama than McCain, especially if New Orleans is affected, or, as Joe points out, oil spills result, but it’s not at all guaranteed to help Obama, and I hope his people are preparing.

Finally I hope everyone in the Caribbean and the Gulf is prepared, and emerges unhurt (but many people in Hati have already died).

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