Comments on: Why global warming means killer storms worse than Katrina and Gustav, Part 1 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sun, 22 Nov 2009 01:25:51 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18436 David B. Benson Wed, 03 Sep 2008 00:21:35 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18436 Now ten: http://www.livescience.com/environment/080902-sept-hurr-forecast.html August was 'slightly above average'. Now ten:

http://www.livescience.com/ environment/ 080902-sept-hurr-forecast.html

August was ’slightly above average’.

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18430 David B. Benson Tue, 02 Sep 2008 21:57:02 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18430 Correction --- I think there are currently only nine named storms. No Josephine just yet. Correction — I think there are currently only nine named storms. No Josephine just yet.

]]> By: John Hollenberg http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18427 John Hollenberg Tue, 02 Sep 2008 21:35:57 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18427 The LuddHunter is not a good advertisement for whatever position he is advocating. Impossible to tell what he is ranting about (or why). Please, please don't feel obliged to allow this stuff in the comments. It contributes nothing to the discussion, and is a waste of everyones time. The LuddHunter is not a good advertisement for whatever position he is advocating. Impossible to tell what he is ranting about (or why). Please, please don’t feel obliged to allow this stuff in the comments. It contributes nothing to the discussion, and is a waste of everyones time.

]]> By: Luddhunter http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18423 Luddhunter Tue, 02 Sep 2008 21:08:39 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18423 Joe, OK forget CEI. I noticed you didn't mention my second source for cvlaiming Non-Consensus: the Geophysical Research Letters science that came out last year, so if you've debunked it, it's not "long-debunked", and I'd like to see the debunk. If you spike this one, I'll know I'm on to something. I'll take your debunk at face value and promise not to troll again (on this thread). http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028836.shtml Calling someone a Ludd and requesting they don't breed more Ludds is not ad hominem. The former is a simple characterization of someone who advocates a ban/reg/tax without a viable replacement and without a strong case for safety impact. The latter is just good comedy. The Mating Curse is one of my staples for Ludds... like all good comedy, it's half rational...if you were an ECONOMIC parasite on humanity, as are all able bodied individuals who willingly stifle growth for social/political gain, isn't genetic de-selection advantage the species? Lighten up, Joe, it's derision. You gotta be able to think on your feet in the polemic mud pen. You came in the mudpen when you started recommending policy, I'm not dumb enough to go in your science ivory tower and get my ass kicked. I know you're not insecure enough to run an echo chamber, so please, debunk away. [<em>JR: No need to debunk. That study is not germane to my post, if you were to actually read both!</em>] Joe,

OK forget CEI. I noticed you didn’t mention my second source for cvlaiming Non-Consensus: the Geophysical Research Letters science that came out last year, so if you’ve debunked it, it’s not “long-debunked”, and I’d like to see the debunk. If you spike this one, I’ll know I’m on to something. I’ll take your debunk at face value and promise not to troll again (on this thread).

http://www.agu.org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2007/ 2006GL028836.shtml

Calling someone a Ludd and requesting they don’t breed more Ludds is not ad hominem. The former is a simple characterization of someone who advocates a ban/reg/tax without a viable replacement and without a strong case for safety impact. The latter is just good comedy. The Mating Curse is one of my staples for Ludds… like all good comedy, it’s half rational…if you were an ECONOMIC parasite on humanity, as are all able bodied individuals who willingly stifle growth for social/political gain, isn’t genetic de-selection advantage the species? Lighten up, Joe, it’s derision. You gotta be able to think on your feet in the polemic mud pen. You came in the mudpen when you started recommending policy, I’m not dumb enough to go in your science ivory tower and get my ass kicked.

I know you’re not insecure enough to run an echo chamber, so please, debunk away.

[JR: No need to debunk. That study is not germane to my post, if you were to actually read both!]

]]> By: TomG http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18408 TomG Tue, 02 Sep 2008 05:10:19 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18408 Bit of a follow-up... The original prediction for the 2007 season was issued in December 2006. It was 14 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. In April 2007 they changed the numbers to 17, 9 and 5. Bit of a follow-up…
The original prediction for the 2007 season was issued in December 2006.
It was 14 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
In April 2007 they changed the numbers to 17, 9 and 5.

]]> By: TomG http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18407 TomG Tue, 02 Sep 2008 04:56:50 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18407 Johnnyb terrible at recall. From Philip Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University the average number of storms/season based on 1950-2000 stats: 9.6 tropical storms 5.9 hurricanes 2.3 major hurricanes They got their prediction for 2006 wrong (17, 9 and 5), but there still were: 10 tropical storms 5 hurricanes 2 major hurricanes No hurricane hit the US The prediction for 2007 was much better (17, 9 and 5). There were: 15 tropical storms 6 hurricanes 2 major hurricanes Humberto hit the US as a cat 1, Dean hit Yucatan as a cat 5 and Felix hit Nicaragua also as a cat 5 As for 2008....Sept 2 and we already have 10 storms?? This average? Use Google, not your recall. It took me all of 5 seconds to find all this information. Johnnyb terrible at recall.
From Philip Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University the average number of storms/season based on 1950-2000 stats: 9.6 tropical storms
5.9 hurricanes
2.3 major hurricanes
They got their prediction for 2006 wrong (17, 9 and 5), but there still were:
10 tropical storms
5 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes
No hurricane hit the US
The prediction for 2007 was much better (17, 9 and 5). There were:
15 tropical storms
6 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes
Humberto hit the US as a cat 1, Dean hit Yucatan as a cat 5
and Felix hit Nicaragua also as a cat 5
As for 2008….Sept 2 and we already have 10 storms?? This average?
Use Google, not your recall.
It took me all of 5 seconds to find all this information.

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18391 David B. Benson Tue, 02 Sep 2008 00:52:57 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18391 Johnnyb --- Is ten named storms by this date average? Johnnyb — Is ten named storms by this date average?

]]> By: Johnnyb http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18379 Johnnyb Mon, 01 Sep 2008 15:36:43 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18379 I seem to recall in 2006 the Global Warmists came out and said that it was going to be the worst hurricane season ever, and not a single one hit the US and I believe that there were fewer storms formed than in previous years, below the longterm average. Then 2007 rolls around, and the Global Warmists come out and say that this will be the worst hurricane season ever, and the results were the same as 2006, no hurricanes hitting the US and fewer storms than normal. OK, so the Argos project confirms a recent cooling trend in the world oceans, and temperature monitors from arounf the globe confirm that 2008 is the coolest year that we have had at least since 2000. And joila, we get what appears to me to be an average hurricane season. I seem to recall in 2006 the Global Warmists came out and said that it was going to be the worst hurricane season ever, and not a single one hit the US and I believe that there were fewer storms formed than in previous years, below the longterm average. Then 2007 rolls around, and the Global Warmists come out and say that this will be the worst hurricane season ever, and the results were the same as 2006, no hurricanes hitting the US and fewer storms than normal.

OK, so the Argos project confirms a recent cooling trend in the world oceans, and temperature monitors from arounf the globe confirm that 2008 is the coolest year that we have had at least since 2000. And joila, we get what appears to me to be an average hurricane season.

]]> By: Magnus http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18374 Magnus Mon, 01 Sep 2008 13:28:56 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18374 BTW: Kerry Emanuel changed his mind on stronger huricanes early this year. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/tech/news/5693436.html At least get facts right in this otherwise funny rhetorical blog. [<em>JR: Again, not sure what the point of this comment is. You do not actually seem to have read this post.</em>] BTW: Kerry Emanuel changed his mind on stronger huricanes early this year.

http://www.chron.com/ disp/ story.mpl/ tech/ news/ 5693436.html

At least get facts right in this otherwise funny rhetorical blog.

[JR: Again, not sure what the point of this comment is. You do not actually seem to have read this post.]

]]> By: Magnus http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18373 Magnus Mon, 01 Sep 2008 13:26:35 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/08/31/why-global-warming-means-killer-storms-worse-than-katrina-and-gustav-part-1/#comment-18373 Why do you chose a hurricane in 1979 and not the by far strongest, in the beginning of the 20th century? A curious "cherry pick"... The statistics: Hurricans and storms globally: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/vol309/issue5742/images/medium/309_1844_F2.gif From Science Magazine: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844/FIG2 US hurricanes strikes 1900-2004: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3096/2815775382_c487c1ecb1_o.jpg Numbers of cyclones globally: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/tc_ace.jpg Cyclone energy on the northern hemisphere: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/monthly_2004_2008.jpg Intensity in tropical cyclones: http://bp3.blogger.com/_xTUB8vsmURU/SCHhAPuUqWI/AAAAAAAAAMo/McRjtOVwLGY/s1600-h/global_ace.gif I've got more graphs on hurricane activity with sloping curves, but this is enough here. [<em>JR: I don't understand the thrust of your comment at all. But for the record, Tip is "largest and most intense tropical cyclone on record."</em>] Why do you chose a hurricane in 1979 and not the by far strongest, in the beginning of the 20th century?

A curious “cherry pick”…

The statistics:

Hurricans and storms globally:
http://www.sciencemag.org/ content/ vol309/ issue5742/ images/ medium/ 309_1844_F2.gif

From Science Magazine:
http://www.sciencemag.org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 309/ 5742/ 1844/ FIG2

US hurricanes strikes 1900-2004:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/ 3096/ 2815775382_c487c1ecb1_o.jpg

Numbers of cyclones globally:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/tc_ace.jpg

Cyclone energy on the northern hemisphere:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/ ~maue/ tropical/ monthly_2004_2008.jpg

Intensity in tropical cyclones:
http://bp3.blogger.com/ _xTUB8vsmURU/ SCHhAPuUqWI/ AAAAAAAAAMo/ McRjtOVwLGY/ s1600-h/ global_ace.gif

I’ve got more graphs on hurricane activity with sloping curves, but this is enough here.

[JR: I don't understand the thrust of your comment at all. But for the record, Tip is "largest and most intense tropical cyclone on record."]

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