Comments on: Why future Katrinas and Gustavs will be MUCH worse, Part 2 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Fri, 09 Jan 2009 06:22:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1 By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18390 David B. Benson Tue, 02 Sep 2008 00:51:24 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18390 By 2050 the sea level will be about 40 cm higher and so the 'beach' will be further inland, with the barrier islands tending to be submerged. Worser and worser... By 2050 the sea level will be about 40 cm higher and so the ‘beach’ will be further inland, with the barrier islands tending to be submerged.

Worser and worser…

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18395 David B. Benson Tue, 02 Sep 2008 01:28:49 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18395 I meant 20--40 cm higher. I meant 20–40 cm higher.

]]> By: paulm http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18402 paulm Tue, 02 Sep 2008 03:49:16 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18402 ...if we don’t reverse emissions trends soon, then Category 4 and 5 storms smashing into the Gulf coast seem likely to become a rather common in the second half of this century... I think we are seeing this start to happen now...not in the second half of the century! Many of my family live in the Caribbean and they are becoming very nervous recently! …if we don’t reverse emissions trends soon, then Category 4 and 5 storms smashing into the Gulf coast seem likely to become a rather common in the second half of this century…

I think we are seeing this start to happen now…not in the second half of the century! Many of my family live in the Caribbean and they are becoming very nervous recently!

]]> By: rpauli http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18410 rpauli Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:56:36 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18410 Consider that the calendar of storms may expand with water warming. Rarely appearing in winter months, but that may change. Did I recall that the further North a hurricane tracks, the faster it goes? True? A 1938 hurricane hit New England was tracking forward at 70 mph. Consider that the calendar of storms may expand with water warming. Rarely appearing in winter months, but that may change.

Did I recall that the further North a hurricane tracks, the faster it goes? True? A 1938 hurricane hit New England was tracking forward at 70 mph.

]]> By: mauri pelto http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18418 mauri pelto Tue, 02 Sep 2008 14:55:45 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18418 If we look at the three main criteria for hurricane formation and survival. A) Water temperature-fertilizer B) Cyclonic systems-seeds C) Wind shear-lack of water It is not clear what the impact of the latter two is in a warmer world. The first clearly as you note increases. This increases the likelihood of an existing storm to be stronger, however, does it make more? That depends as much as on B and C, we just are not as sure. NOAA has a term Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, as they describe the rapid intensification of a number of recent storms beyond expectations as they pass over particularly warm water indicates this is a more powerful mechanism than has been realized. And as you note Joe, strongly supports the role of warmer SST overall in helping foster stronger tropical cyclones. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/intro.html If we look at the three main criteria for hurricane formation and survival.
A) Water temperature-fertilizer
B) Cyclonic systems-seeds
C) Wind shear-lack of water
It is not clear what the impact of the latter two is in a warmer world. The first clearly as you note increases. This increases the likelihood of an existing storm to be stronger, however, does it make more? That depends as much as on B and C, we just are not as sure.
NOAA has a term Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, as they describe the rapid intensification of a number of recent storms beyond expectations as they pass over particularly warm water indicates this is a more powerful mechanism than has been realized. And as you note Joe, strongly supports the role of warmer SST overall in helping foster stronger tropical cyclones.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/intro.html

]]> By: paulm http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18419 paulm Tue, 02 Sep 2008 17:48:29 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18419 The storms recently have had very unpredictable paths. Could climate change have anything to do with this? The storms recently have had very unpredictable paths.

Could climate change have anything to do with this?

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18428 David B. Benson Tue, 02 Sep 2008 21:37:41 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18428 Joe --- These two parts were helpfully informative. Thank you. Joe — These two parts were helpfully informative. Thank you.

]]> By: Jay Alt http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18444 Jay Alt Wed, 03 Sep 2008 02:27:10 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/01/why-future-katrinas-and-gustavs-will-be-much-worse-part-2/#comment-18444 Joe points out that a permanent el Nino would damp Atlantic hurricane activity yet be a planetary disaster. There is a related 'tradeoff' that doesn't get enough attention. 'Confusionists' often hype the benefits of medieval warming, to Europe. That was real but regional and asynchronous. But in that same time frame Native Americans got the short end of the stick. Decades-long megadroughts destroyed the Mississippian Culture around Cahokia, the Anasazi in the SW and others. And East Africa was drier than recently, the last thing those suffering people need now. Joe points out that a permanent el Nino would damp Atlantic hurricane activity yet be a planetary disaster. There is a related ‘tradeoff’ that doesn’t get enough attention.

‘Confusionists’ often hype the benefits of medieval warming, to Europe. That was real but regional and asynchronous. But in that same time frame Native Americans got the short end of the stick. Decades-long megadroughts destroyed the Mississippian Culture around Cahokia, the Anasazi in the SW and others. And East Africa was drier than recently, the last thing those suffering people need now.

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