Comments on: Nature: Hurricanes ARE getting fiercer — and it’s going to get much worse

By: David B. Benson

David B. Benson — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 01:13:18 +0000

Joe — Northeast Atlantic coast as well.

Time to start using the Category 6 designation?

By: Brendan

Brendan — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 01:32:14 +0000

Does normalizing something for “population trends” mean that it was the most expensive per capita? And if it is per capita, is it per capita of the hit region or per capita of the country?

By: CapitalClimate

CapitalClimate — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 03:06:04 +0000

FWIW, Ike has gone from tropical storm to major hurricane (Category 4) in 12 hours. Max winds are up to 135 mph. It’s the 3rd Cat 3 or higher so far this season. Average peak of the season is about a week from now.

By: Jay Alt

Jay Alt — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 03:19:54 +0000

I heard Kerry Emanuel talk in 02007. He mentioned that what meteorologists call a ‘reanalysis’ of hurricane data was being finished at UW. It would help future studies to clear up questions of intensity and frequency changes. That is what we are seeing here. UW scientist Jim Kossin is a coauthor in this study.

Now Emanuel has since modified his own views somewhat. But that was done based on an ensemble of models for future storms, not analysis of real storm data. This study will give him something else to ponder.

By: Steve Bloom

Steve Bloom — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 08:37:06 +0000

Jay, I don’t think KE has modified his views. I know the ambiguous quote you’re referencing, but I think it was a slightly elliptical way of saying that the models are suspect.

By: paulm

paulm — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 14:25:07 +0000

I can not see how there is such a big debate now about this. The analysis done by Joseph using NOAA data demonstrates clearly and undeniably that there is a very high correlation between name storms and sst. The graph is of the 17-year central moving averages of northern hemisphere sea surface temperature anomalies, and the number of named storms in the Atlantic basin, from the 1850s to the present time. Even Palin would recognize the connection if she saw the graph. (Joe, this is Best PPT material).

By: All Wallpapers

All Wallpapers — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:31:39 +0000

Great post.. Thanks..

By: paulm

paulm — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:16:03 +0000

yIKE! Joe your predictions are coming true even before the end of the current season. This is with a slight global cooling! This may be explained by Josephs analysis which indicates that there is a 2yr lag in the frequency of named storms against temp rise. Bigger, longer lasting storms mean high probable landfall, especially now for the US which is further west. And bigger storms also mean greater flooding over a larger region. I think one reason Haiti is so poor is that it always seems to get it every couple of years and does not have a chance to recover economically. This is probably the fate of all communities now in the region because of the size and power of future (current) storms.

By: paulm

paulm — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 01:59:59 +0000

This is Hell & High water…set to probably arrive at your door step soon…

‘We are going to disappear one day’
This year four hurricanes hit Haiti, leaving 800 dead and a country drowning. Photographer Gideon Mendel waded waist-high through mud to bear witness to an ecological disaster that will only get worse

http://www.guardian.co.uk/ world/ 2008/ nov/ 08/ haiti-hurricanes

“The whole country is facing an ecological disaster,” said the prime minister, Michele Pierre-Louis. “We cannot keep going on like this. We are going to disappear one day. There will not be 400, 500 or 1,000 deaths. There are going to be a million deaths.”