Comments on: Study: Sun’s contribution to recent warming is “negligible” http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sun, 22 Nov 2009 08:16:08 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: shop http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-27200 shop Thu, 15 Jan 2009 10:36:31 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-27200 Well, rjm, if you don’t have the ability to read the data then you’re left to depend on the interpretation of others. Now who do you think the person/group to trust - thousands of climate scientists, including NASA people, or a senator from Oklahoma and the guy who started the Weather Chanel? Who qualifies to fly the plane on which you’ve reserved a seat? Certified pilot or keyboard whacker? Well, rjm, if you don’t have the ability to read the data then you’re left to depend on the interpretation of others.

Now who do you think the person/group to trust – thousands of climate scientists, including NASA people, or a senator from Oklahoma and the guy who started the Weather Chanel?

Who qualifies to fly the plane on which you’ve reserved a seat? Certified pilot or keyboard whacker?

]]> By: paulm http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-20173 paulm Sun, 05 Oct 2008 13:43:53 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-20173 Has anyone set up a clock showing the declining ice volume? Here is more evidence of GW from Canada.... <b>Arctic Meltdown Signals Long-Term Trend</b> http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=43803 <i>.... "We were really surprised at how fast some of the ice shelves broke away," he said. .... "How could an entire ice-locked fjord become ice-free in days? I couldn't believe it was just gone," Copland recalled. ... In total, five ice shelves of Ellesmere Island lost 23 percent of their ice -- 214 sq km -- during this year's short Arctic summer. ... "The ice shelf decline is far worse than our worst estimations," he said. ... "I'd be surprised if there are any ice shelves left in 10 years," Copland said. </i> Has anyone set up a clock showing the declining ice volume?

Here is more evidence of GW from Canada….
Arctic Meltdown Signals Long-Term Trend
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=43803

….
“We were really surprised at how fast some of the ice shelves broke away,” he said.
….
“How could an entire ice-locked fjord become ice-free in days? I couldn’t believe it was just gone,” Copland recalled.
…
In total, five ice shelves of Ellesmere Island lost 23 percent of their ice — 214 sq km — during this year’s short Arctic summer.
…
“The ice shelf decline is far worse than our worst estimations,” he said.
…
“I’d be surprised if there are any ice shelves left in 10 years,” Copland said.

]]> By: Jim Eager http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19989 Jim Eager Wed, 01 Oct 2008 13:34:26 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19989 Re Yes, but.... and the MWP and LIA, The Lean and Rind 2008 paper does not say that solar variation does not affect climate, they find that it has not been the major factor in the past 100 years, and has been negligible over the last 25, but then if you bothered to read even the excerpt in Joe's post you would know that. Re Yes, but…. and the MWP and LIA,
The Lean and Rind 2008 paper does not say that solar variation does not affect climate, they find that it has not been the major factor in the past 100 years, and has been negligible over the last 25, but then if you bothered to read even the excerpt in Joe’s post you would know that.

]]> By: Erl Happ http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19979 Erl Happ Wed, 01 Oct 2008 10:25:29 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19979 For an entirely different viewpoint based on a careful analysis of the data see: http://www.happs.com.au/downloaders/The%20ENSO%20mechanism.pdf For an entirely different viewpoint based on a careful analysis of the data see:
http://www.happs.com.au/ downloaders/ The%20ENSO%20mechanism.pdf

]]> By: John Mashey http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19968 John Mashey Wed, 01 Oct 2008 04:19:10 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19968 Yes but: I second David Benson's suggestion to read Ruddiman, who offers several hypotheses that could explain some of the temperature jiggles of the last 2000 years, i.e., that plagues caused reforestration before the MWP and afterwards, and reforestration = less CO2 = cooler. He has several newer papers beyond the book as well. Meanwhile, people also might read <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/08/john_mashey_on_how_to_learn_ab.php" rel="nofollow">How to learn about science</a>, if the progression from idea to hypothesis to strong theory is unfamiliar. Also mentioned there, I recommend: [SEL2004] Richard C Selley, The Winelands of Britain: Past, Present & Prospective, 2004 (F). Geologist/oenophile traces historical growth and shrinkage of UK wineries over two millennia. Current wineries are North of Medieval Warm Period and heading North quickly. Slightly out of date, a few vineyards are already in Leeds, Selley's projection for <a href="http://www.winelandsofbritain.co.uk/lecture.htm" rel="nofollow">2050</a>. Visit the Loch Ness winery around 2100AD. There is now a newer 2nd Edition with more detailed projections of which grapes will grow where. Our future temperatures depend in *no way whatsoever* on whether or not it's already warmer than MWP or not, but Selley's research strongly supports the idea that it's warmer (in UK at leasty) now than it was in MWP or Roman periods, given that wine is a high-value product, and people produce it where they can. Selley now worries that by 2080, Southern England wil lbe *too hot* for good grapes... Yes but:

I second David Benson’s suggestion to read Ruddiman, who offers several hypotheses that could explain some of the temperature jiggles of the last 2000 years, i.e., that plagues caused reforestration before the MWP and afterwards, and reforestration = less CO2 = cooler. He has several newer papers beyond the book as well.

Meanwhile, people also might read How to learn about science, if the progression from idea to hypothesis to strong theory is unfamiliar.

Also mentioned there, I recommend:

[SEL2004] Richard C Selley, The Winelands of Britain: Past, Present & Prospective, 2004 (F).

Geologist/oenophile traces historical growth and shrinkage of UK wineries over two millennia. Current wineries are North of Medieval Warm Period and heading North quickly. Slightly out of date, a few vineyards are already in Leeds, Selley’s projection for 2050. Visit the Loch Ness winery around 2100AD. There is now a newer 2nd Edition with more detailed projections of which grapes will grow where.

Our future temperatures depend in *no way whatsoever* on whether or not it’s already warmer than MWP or not, but Selley’s research strongly supports the idea that it’s warmer (in UK at leasty) now than it was in MWP or Roman periods, given that wine is a high-value product, and people produce it where they can.

Selley now worries that by 2080, Southern England wil lbe *too hot* for good grapes…

]]> By: Joe http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19943 Joe Tue, 30 Sep 2008 22:56:21 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19943 Steve -- Good catch. Fixed. Steve — Good catch. Fixed.

]]> By: Steve Bloom http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19939 Steve Bloom Tue, 30 Sep 2008 21:03:06 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19939 Joe, the link to the abstract isn't very useful since it just gets to the AGU sign-on screen. GISS has both the abstract and the complete paper <a href="http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2008/Lean_Rind.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>. Joe, the link to the abstract isn’t very useful since it just gets to the AGU sign-on screen.

GISS has both the abstract and the complete paper here.

]]> By: mauri pelto http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19935 mauri pelto Tue, 30 Sep 2008 20:35:09 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19935 Excellent article thanks for highlighting it. Nothing surprising, but just an incrementally better resolution and comprehensiveness to the analysis. This does not focus on LIA or MWP, but David is correct the LIA signal is robust in the Southern Hemisphere with glacier advances in the Andes, New Zealand, New Guineau, Kilimanjaro and in Asia throughout the Himilaya. This does not mean it was the same magnitude every where, but the lowering of glacier snowlines was pretty comparable in the aforementioned areas to Western NA or the Alps. Excellent article thanks for highlighting it. Nothing surprising, but just an incrementally better resolution and comprehensiveness to the analysis. This does not focus on LIA or MWP, but David is correct the LIA signal is robust in the Southern Hemisphere with glacier advances in the Andes, New Zealand, New Guineau, Kilimanjaro and in Asia throughout the Himilaya. This does not mean it was the same magnitude every where, but the lowering of glacier snowlines was pretty comparable in the aforementioned areas to Western NA or the Alps.

]]> By: gaiasdaughter http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19931 gaiasdaughter Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:59:53 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19931 Hmm, okay . . . as a pagan, I do take issue with your last statement. Luckily, I have a thick skin.:) Hmm, okay . . . as a pagan, I do take issue with your last statement. Luckily, I have a thick skin.:)

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19926 David B. Benson Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:17:49 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/30/study-suns-contribution-to-recent-warming-is-negligible/#comment-19926 Yes but... --- I suggest reading W.F. Ruddiman's "Plows, Plagues and Petroleum". Joe --- Actually both MWP and LIA appear in various regional proxies around the globe, although not precisely synchrounous with Europe. For example, liminological records from Patagonia show an MWP. Yes but… — I suggest reading W.F. Ruddiman’s “Plows, Plagues and Petroleum”.

Joe — Actually both MWP and LIA appear in various regional proxies around the globe, although not precisely synchrounous with Europe. For example, liminological records from Patagonia show an MWP.

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