Comments on: Who will be the biggest obstacle to climate action in the next decade — China, Russia, India, or us? http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sun, 22 Nov 2009 06:48:56 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Cyril R. http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20695 Cyril R. Fri, 17 Oct 2008 16:14:39 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20695 If I know anything about the Chinese government, then they will look intensively at other countries' CO2 regulation programmes, see what appears to work and what doesn't, then implement it small scale (perhaps in some major cities first), learn from that, then go to the national level. In the meanwhile, no-brainer win-wins are being implemented quickly, like demand side energy efficiency, much more efficient coal plants etc. The big stuff, though, like carbon trading/taxing will have to wait till major consumers of China - like the US and Europe - have their mind clearly set on something. Then, my guess is China will follow suit, one of the main reasons being to please (or not to upset) their Western consumers. That may be not good enough, you might say, but better than the US which is doing close to nothing in the grand scheme of things, and the Chinese can implement any program really FAST. It is why I have argued before, that the US and Europe have to set hard targets and decide quickly on programmes and their implementation. Otherwise, we'll all get caught in a global game of accusations, wasting our precious time pointing the finger. This snowball requires a rather big push to get rolling, but get rolling it must, even though it may cost those with initiative a bit in errors that may be pricey. In all fairness, this is the risk we need to take. End of rant. If I know anything about the Chinese government, then they will look intensively at other countries’ CO2 regulation programmes, see what appears to work and what doesn’t, then implement it small scale (perhaps in some major cities first), learn from that, then go to the national level.

In the meanwhile, no-brainer win-wins are being implemented quickly, like demand side energy efficiency, much more efficient coal plants etc. The big stuff, though, like carbon trading/taxing will have to wait till major consumers of China – like the US and Europe – have their mind clearly set on something. Then, my guess is China will follow suit, one of the main reasons being to please (or not to upset) their Western consumers.

That may be not good enough, you might say, but better than the US which is doing close to nothing in the grand scheme of things, and the Chinese can implement any program really FAST.

It is why I have argued before, that the US and Europe have to set hard targets and decide quickly on programmes and their implementation. Otherwise, we’ll all get caught in a global game of accusations, wasting our precious time pointing the finger. This snowball requires a rather big push to get rolling, but get rolling it must, even though it may cost those with initiative a bit in errors that may be pricey. In all fairness, this is the risk we need to take.

End of rant.

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20595 David B. Benson Wed, 15 Oct 2008 19:03:22 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20595 John Mashey --- Thank you. :-) John Mashey — Thank you. :-)

]]> By: Joerg Haas http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20560 Joerg Haas Wed, 15 Oct 2008 01:31:58 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20560 Joe, two things are clear: a) there are important emission reduction opportunities in India, and we'll need to seize them if we are to limit global warming to tolerable levels.\ b) India is still very poor and by and large not responsible for the problem. Its development priorities are justifiably very immediate. The way out of this dilemma is a generous offer from the North to pay for emission reductions in India. Otherwise we would prove Lomborg right. This is the avenue that the Bali Action Plan indicates and that we must now vigorously pursue. Joe,
two things are clear:
a) there are important emission reduction opportunities in India, and we’ll need to seize them if we are to limit global warming to tolerable levels.\
b) India is still very poor and by and large not responsible for the problem. Its development priorities are justifiably very immediate.

The way out of this dilemma is a generous offer from the North to pay for emission reductions in India. Otherwise we would prove Lomborg right. This is the avenue that the Bali Action Plan indicates and that we must now vigorously pursue.

]]> By: John Mashey http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20559 John Mashey Wed, 15 Oct 2008 00:57:53 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20559 David: Prof.Klare discussed: - some history of oil & WW II (Japan ->Dutch East Indies for oil, with preemptive strike on Pearl Harbor; Germany -> southern attack in USSR for oil; US provided 7/8 of the oil used by Allies; US Saudi agreement via FDR, as it was clear US would not be able to be top producer forever) - mid-East, Caucasus, Africa - Rapidly-rising demand from India and China - Russian determination to use oil/gas as major political weapon (in his book, Klare notes, p 92-93, that during the 1990s, Putin got a PhD from the St. Petersburg Mining Institute, and argues strongly that the government should set priorities for the oil industry (i.e., not privatization). - General concern over the number and complexity of potential flashpoints over energy supplies, and investment in military resources as opposed to sustainable energy supplies + climate issues. - I.e., this is primarily a political science/history view about the dangers from that side, but ends with positive actions that should taken for both security and climate. David:
Prof.Klare discussed:

- some history of oil & WW II (Japan ->Dutch East Indies for oil, with preemptive strike on Pearl Harbor; Germany -> southern attack in USSR for oil; US provided 7/8 of the oil used by Allies; US Saudi agreement via FDR, as it was clear US would not be able to be top producer forever)

- mid-East, Caucasus, Africa

- Rapidly-rising demand from India and China

- Russian determination to use oil/gas as major political weapon (in his book, Klare notes, p 92-93, that during the 1990s, Putin got a PhD from the St. Petersburg Mining Institute, and argues strongly that the government should set priorities for the oil industry (i.e., not privatization).

- General concern over the number and complexity of potential flashpoints over energy supplies, and investment in military resources as opposed to sustainable energy supplies + climate issues.

- I.e., this is primarily a political science/history view about the dangers from that side, but ends with positive actions that should taken for both security and climate.

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20556 David B. Benson Tue, 14 Oct 2008 23:47:26 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20556 rpaull --- Also The Tragedy of the Commons: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons rpaull — Also The Tragedy of the Commons:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

]]> By: rpauli http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20555 rpauli Tue, 14 Oct 2008 23:37:11 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20555 This is the diplomatic version of the prisoner's dilemma from game theory. Will all states co-operate for the good of all, or betray to gain momentary economic advantage? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma This is the diplomatic version of the prisoner’s dilemma from game theory.

Will all states co-operate for the good of all, or betray to gain momentary economic advantage?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20553 David B. Benson Tue, 14 Oct 2008 22:33:19 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20553 Joe Romm --- All of the above. Joe Romm — All of the above.

]]> By: Rick http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20551 Rick Tue, 14 Oct 2008 21:56:08 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20551 anon - I didn't find any list but forestry in the tropics is big for CO2 (Brazil and Indonesia) http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/deforestation-the-hidden-cause-of-global-warming-448734.html anon – I didn’t find any list but forestry in the tropics is big for CO2 (Brazil and Indonesia)
http://www.independent.co.uk/ environment/ climate-change/ deforestation-the-hidden-cause-of-global-warming-448734.html

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20549 David B. Benson Tue, 14 Oct 2008 21:13:06 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20549 John Mashey ---- Briefly, what did Prof. Klare say? John Mashey —- Briefly, what did Prof. Klare say?

]]> By: anon http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20547 anon Tue, 14 Oct 2008 21:04:00 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/14/who-will-be-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action-in-the-next-decade-china-russia-india-or-us/#comment-20547 Can someone provide a link to an authoritative current ranking of the top greenhouse gas emitters - including through deforestation? I have looked on google, and I haven't been able to find one. Can someone provide a link to an authoritative current ranking of the top greenhouse gas emitters – including through deforestation?

I have looked on google, and I haven’t been able to find one.

]]>