Comments on: EDF’s and MIT’s magical thinking on carbon caps and oil http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sat, 21 Nov 2009 21:59:47 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: john http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/#comment-20625 john Thu, 16 Oct 2008 13:14:55 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/#comment-20625 For some time now, many environmental groups -- with EDF among the worst -- have been loath to confront the implications of climate change. They've convinced themselves that gloom and doom doesn't sell; they've bought into econometric modeling that applies a discount rate to things undiscountable, leaving their only option to be the safe and comforting illusion of a deux-et-machina of technological miracles. They have consigned themselves to irrelevance. Too bad MIT has chosen to join them. For some time now, many environmental groups — with EDF among the worst — have been loath to confront the implications of climate change. They’ve convinced themselves that gloom and doom doesn’t sell; they’ve bought into econometric modeling that applies a discount rate to things undiscountable, leaving their only option to be the safe and comforting illusion of a deux-et-machina of technological miracles.

They have consigned themselves to irrelevance. Too bad MIT has chosen to join them.

]]> By: Chris McGrath http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/#comment-20613 Chris McGrath Wed, 15 Oct 2008 23:18:54 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/#comment-20613 rpauli, the rates of CO2 removal from the atmosphere are longer than 60-200 years. The IPCC (2007: 514) found that following perturbation of the natural Carbon Cycle about 50% of an increase in atmospheric CO2 will be removed within 30 years, a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries and the remaining 20% may remain in the atmosphere for many thousands of years. While the bulk of CO2 is removed in several decades, Archer (2005) points out that the immense longevity of the tail on the lifetime of CO2 released into the atmosphere means 7% released by burning fossil fuels today will still be affecting the atmosphere in 100,000 years, and the mean lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is 30,000-35,000 years. He suggests an appropriate approximation of the lifetime of CO2 released by the burning of fossil fuels for public discussion is “300 years, plus 25% that lasts forever”. References Archer D (2005), “Fate of Fossil Fuel in Geologic Time” 110 Journal of Geophysical Research C09S05, doi: 10.1029/2004/2004JC002625 IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Cambridge University Press), available at at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm rpauli, the rates of CO2 removal from the atmosphere are longer than 60-200 years.

The IPCC (2007: 514) found that following perturbation of the natural Carbon Cycle about 50% of an increase in atmospheric CO2 will be removed within 30 years, a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries and the remaining 20% may remain in the atmosphere for many thousands of years.

While the bulk of CO2 is removed in several decades, Archer (2005) points out that the immense longevity of the tail on the lifetime of CO2 released into the atmosphere means 7% released by burning fossil fuels today will still be affecting the atmosphere in 100,000 years, and the mean lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is 30,000-35,000 years. He suggests an appropriate approximation of the lifetime of CO2 released by the burning of fossil fuels for public discussion is “300 years, plus 25% that lasts forever”.

References

Archer D (2005), “Fate of Fossil Fuel in Geologic Time” 110 Journal of Geophysical Research C09S05, doi: 10.1029/2004/2004JC002625

IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Cambridge University Press), available at at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm

]]> By: Modesty http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/#comment-20609 Modesty Wed, 15 Oct 2008 22:38:28 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/#comment-20609 "You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him commercialize the process." Funny. “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him commercialize the process.”

Funny.

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/#comment-20606 David B. Benson Wed, 15 Oct 2008 20:51:30 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/#comment-20606 Mithra's Innoxious Tibia (MIT) Mithra’s Innoxious Tibia (MIT)

]]> By: rpauli http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/#comment-20596 rpauli Wed, 15 Oct 2008 19:12:48 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/15/edfs-and-mits-magical-thinking-on-carbon-caps-and-oil/#comment-20596 All this discussion needs more understanding of the atmospheric CO2 purging rates Can we expect the natural rate of CO2 reduction to change with increases in warming, ocean saturation and desertification? If so then the time estimates for natural CO2 removal must increase accordingly. Surely MIT has figured that in. Also the current estimates seem to vary from ~60 to ~200 years for CO2 removal. Did MIT share their figures and formulas for this? Are you sure that is the same MIT ? Can anyone use the MIT initials for any claim? All this discussion needs more understanding of the atmospheric CO2 purging rates

Can we expect the natural rate of CO2 reduction to change with increases in warming, ocean saturation and desertification?

If so then the time estimates for natural CO2 removal must increase accordingly. Surely MIT has figured that in.

Also the current estimates seem to vary from ~60 to ~200 years for CO2 removal. Did MIT share their figures and formulas for this?

Are you sure that is the same MIT ? Can anyone use the MIT initials for any claim?

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