My election predictions … and yours
Anybody can be an armchair pundit. But how many of you are willing to put your predictions online for all to see?
Simplifying the format of the Washington Post Crystal Ball Contest ‘08, it is time to call:
- The popular vote margin of victory — in percentage points
- The winner’s electoral vote count
- The total number of Senate Dems (currently 49)
The tiebreaker is the number of House Dems (currently 235 Ds).
The winner gets a post on Climate Progres with his or her post-election analysis — woo-hoo!
But, of course, you’ll have to beat my predictions:
- 7.5% (for Obama)
- 367
- 57 Ds
House: 260 Ds
The formula for weighting will be 40, 15, 25, 10 — the error of each of the four predicted numbers will be multiped by those weightings, then the total will be summed and averaged. Lowest score wins. [And I’m gonna call this Wednesday night, even if some races are headed for recount.]
May the best pundit win!
November 2nd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
10.1%
370
59 Ds
265
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Popular: 7% Obama
Electoral: 364 Obama
Senate: 57 Dems
House: 258 Dems
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:12 pm
* 8% (for Obama)
* 376 electoral votes
* 58 Ds
* House: 264 Ds
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
6.5% Obama
349 electoral votes
59 Dems/Senate
268 Dems/House
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Popular: 8% Obama
Electoral: 353 Obama
Senate: 59 Dems
House: 268 Dems
I’m assuming everyone has underestipulated the enthusiasm in the Obama camp.
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:54 pm
* 5.5% Obama
* 340 EVs
* 55 Democrats (not counting 2 Independents)
* House: 250 Ds
I abdicate any analysis to fivethirtyeight.com, where I got almost all my numbers.
November 2nd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Popular: 16% Obama
Electoral: 403 Obama
Senate: 58 Dems
House: 270 Dems
I predict a big landslide for Obama, as enthusiasm is huge, the groundgame is the best ever, and many republicans will stay home when they see the huge lines at the polls. The big margin is due to huge turnouts in the blue states like California and New York.
November 2nd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Popular: 5.1% Obama
Electoral: 317 Obama
Senate: 58 Dems (59 including Lieberman in the voting block)
House: 257 Dems
November 2nd, 2008 at 3:58 pm
6.7%
364 EVs
59 Ds (including 2 indies)
258 House Ds
Democratic ground operation will deserve a lot of credit and I hope it gets it.
November 2nd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
53% Obama
350 E votes
58 Sen Dems
250 House Dems
November 2nd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Popular: 5.3% Obama
326 EVs
55 Democrats
253 House Dems
November 2nd, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Popular - 7% Obama
Electoral - 354 Obama
Senate - 58 democrats
House - 258 democrats
November 2nd, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Joe, what are you going to write about once Obama is in the White House?
November 2nd, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Popular: 6.5% Obama
Electoral: 356 Obama
Senate: 58 Dems
House: 260 Dems
November 2nd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
7.5% (Obama)
345 Electoral votes
57 Senators
265 House Members
November 2nd, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Hi Joe:
I know this isn’t playing by the rules, but I write with the spirit and intentions of an ally. I see few reasons to expect the GOP to play fair with the election results, when I believe the last two presidential elections were stolen. If I thought we had a real election, I’d jump right in there and wager — I like games. But I don’t, so I think it’s a rather futile exercise: I don’t think we get real national elections data any more in the US.
Of course I dearly hope I’m wrong, either because Obama’s lead is too great to fake, or the GOP realizes it’s to their political benefit to let this election go, having so thoroughly devastated the country, and nicely lined their pockets on the way out. But the signs from early voting (long lines - already?!) and votes flipping - curiously not so much from McCain as from Obama - the supposed ‘calibration’ issue - lead me to put a lot of cred in Mark Crisipin Miller’s analysis of the setup: see http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/22/votes (note: Miller claims Kerry told him vehemently that he, Kerry, believes the vote was stolen in 2004).
The GOP has successfully propagated the offense-as-defense strategy of blaming ACORN for voter ‘fraud’ while they’re purging the rolls and confronting and confusing voters about who, where and when to vote. They even have the post-election cover story, the supposed “Bradley effect” (wherein racist voters say they’ll vote for Obama but then don’t actually do so) set up to explain the discrepancies between polls and results which statistics won’t otherwise be able to do. And of course, with electronic voting machines, in many places there will simply be no way to get a verifiable recount.
Again, I hope I’m wrong this time, and would be happy to be publicly refuted/reassured, but this is why I think betting may not be meaningful. Instead, my focus is on election protection. I plan to:
(1) vote early;
(2) monitor with cell phone camera in hand;
(3) record and twitter any discrepancies I witness;
(4) provide election protection help as requested by CREDO Mobile;
(5) show up at my federal building at 5 pm on Wed if the results seem wrong.
For action options, see Code Pink: http://codepinkaction.org/article.php?id=4423
November 2nd, 2008 at 5:46 pm
7.5% Obama
353 EVs
59 Democrat Senate seats
265 Democrat House seats
November 2nd, 2008 at 6:43 pm
7%
274
59
247
November 2nd, 2008 at 6:55 pm
3% (McCain)
274 EV
57 Democratic Senators
252 Democratic House members
November 2nd, 2008 at 7:30 pm
5.6% (Obama)
310 EV
54 Democratic Senators
253 Democratic House members
November 2nd, 2008 at 7:56 pm
9.9% >McC in popular vote
372 EVs
59 D senators + 2 indy
255 D House
November 2nd, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Oops. I neglected to enter a House total, so here is my revised set of predictions:
8.5 percent (for Obama)
388
59 Ds (Senate)
265 Ds (House)
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:55 am
3.3 for Obama
305
55 Dems
250 Dems
November 3rd, 2008 at 4:13 am
AND THE WINNER IS —– MR.”CLEAN”—
PEAAAABODYYY COALLLL!!!!
PERCENT 11 degrees centigrade
THE VOTES THAT REALLY COUNT: 600ppm
SENATE Ds : Peabody gets ALL of them!!!!
HOUSE Ds (see above)
to be really on target, you ALWAYS gotta think outside the box. I submit my prediction and assert flatly that it has a 0% margin of error.
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
+10%
311 EVs
58 Dem Senators
258 Dem Reps
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Paul K,
What states will McCain win to hit 274?
November 3rd, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Obama by 9%
EC 396 - 148
Senate 60 caucus with the Dems
House 269-166
November 3rd, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Obama by 9%
EC 396-142
Senate: Democratic caucus will be 60, unless they dump Lieberman, then 59
House: 269-166
November 3rd, 2008 at 3:22 pm
6.1% (for Obama)
367
59 Ds
House: 265 Ds
November 3rd, 2008 at 4:16 pm
ken levenson,
Looking at the board, I figure my best shot at winning the guest post contest is to “go the other way”. I’m glad that no matter the outcome, the discussion will not be on whether to strive for zero carbon, but how.
November 3rd, 2008 at 8:45 pm
5.9 % for obama
353-185
58 senate seats (including Lieberman and Sanders)
262 house seats
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 pm
7% Obama
368
59 dems (including 2-Is)
255 house dems
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:50 pm
11.3%
379 - 159
58 Senate Seats… (including Independents)
264 House
All in favor of the Democrats