Comments on: IEA: Oil price to rebound to $100 when economy recovers, then soar to $200 by 2030 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Fri, 19 Mar 2010 11:20:59 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Adam http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21996 Adam Tue, 11 Nov 2008 21:49:14 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21996 This original story is on financialtimes.com and has a video that helps explain it better. The link is http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca2b5254-ab6a-11dd-b9e1-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1 This original story is on financialtimes.com and has a video that helps explain it better. The link is

http://www.ft.com/ cms/ s/ 0/ ca2b5254-ab6a-11dd-b9e1-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

]]> By: Adam http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21995 Adam Tue, 11 Nov 2008 21:45:33 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21995 This past year the exorbitant cost of gas has seriously damaged our economy and society.Families struggled just to fill their vehicles up at the pump to tend to the bare necessities of life. Manafacturers passed on higher operating and shipping costs to consumers resulting in higher prices on every product imaginable. Most all electric companies asked for and were granted a record rate increase that further taxed the american family.Grocries went through the roof and many products not only cost more now they come in smaller packages. By the time we got done filling up the car and buying groceries most families had little left over to spend on so called extra's , save or invest. In fact most had to dip into their savings just to get by as of late.So, we in turn cut back, cut out the extra's maybe the cable, eating out, movies, going longer between hair cuts, some have even stopped taking necessary medicine because they can no longer afford it. We drive less, OPEC cuts production, we drive even less, they vow to cut more to jack the prices back up.(and they will) Our counrty spent 168 BILLION dollars on a economic stimulus package that did NOTHING for our economy. That would have gone a LONG way towards getting our nation started on the road to energy independence. We have so much available to us in the way of FREE ENERGY such as wind and solar. Electric plug in cars would cost the equivalent of 60 cents a gallon to drive. 168 BILLION would have gone a long way toward making that technology more affordable to the average Joe. Jeff Wilson has the best book ever called The Manhattan Project of 2009 Energy Independence NOW. If you are worried about our economy and want to see our nation become energy independent I highly recommend this book. www.themanhattanprojectof2009.com This past year the exorbitant cost of gas has seriously damaged our economy and society.Families struggled just to fill their vehicles up at the pump to tend to the bare necessities of life. Manafacturers passed on higher operating and shipping costs to consumers resulting in higher prices on every product imaginable. Most all electric companies asked for and were granted a record rate increase that further taxed the american family.Grocries went through the roof and many products not only cost more now they come in smaller packages. By the time we got done filling up the car and buying groceries most families had little left over to spend on so called extra’s , save or invest. In fact most had to dip into their savings just to get by as of late.So, we in turn cut back, cut out the extra’s maybe the cable, eating out, movies, going longer between hair cuts, some have even stopped taking necessary medicine because they can no longer afford it. We drive less, OPEC cuts production, we drive even less, they vow to cut more to jack the prices back up.(and they will) Our counrty spent 168 BILLION dollars on a economic stimulus package that did NOTHING for our economy. That would have gone a LONG way towards getting our nation started on the road to energy independence. We have so much available to us in the way of FREE ENERGY such as wind and solar. Electric plug in cars would cost the equivalent of 60 cents a gallon to drive. 168 BILLION would have gone a long way toward making that technology more affordable to the average Joe. Jeff Wilson has the best book ever called The Manhattan Project of 2009 Energy Independence NOW. If you are worried about our economy and want to see our nation become energy independent I highly recommend this book.
http://www.themanhattanprojectof2009.com

]]> By: llewelly http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21763 llewelly Sat, 08 Nov 2008 04:06:41 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21763 Does IEA test their forecasts using methods like backcast testing? If so, what is the skill of their methods? If not, why believe their forecast is better than asking the neighbor's dog? Does IEA test their forecasts using methods like backcast testing? If so, what is the skill of their methods? If not, why believe their forecast is better than asking the neighbor’s dog?

]]> By: hapa http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21613 hapa Fri, 07 Nov 2008 01:28:33 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21613 <a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/254292/the_economic_mess_and_financial_disaster_that_obama_will_inherit" rel="nofollow">good news!</a> but only if you're a "war footing" fan. good news!

but only if you’re a “war footing” fan.

]]> By: alex http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21602 alex Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:35:46 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21602 This chart shows that the current drop in oil prices is just a blip and doesn't take us off the long term trend, which is onwards and upwards. http://www.freecharts.com/Commodities.aspx?page=chart&sym=CLY0&data=G&date=072808&den=MED&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=B&sky=N&sly=L&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=IC&org=stk If oil can sink from $147 to $60 then this clearly indicates that no-one can predict where it is going next, so the iEA's predictions mean nothing. This chart shows that the current drop in oil prices is just a blip and doesn’t take us off the long term trend, which is onwards and upwards.

http://www.freecharts.com/ Commodities.aspx?page=chart&sym=CLY0&data=G&date=072808&den=MED&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=B&sky=N&sly=L&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=IC&org=stk

If oil can sink from $147 to $60 then this clearly indicates that no-one can predict where it is going next, so the iEA’s predictions mean nothing.

]]> By: paulm http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21597 paulm Thu, 06 Nov 2008 22:55:06 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21597 I have a feeling Saudi Arabia has less oil than we think. I have a feeling Saudi Arabia has less oil than we think.

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21596 David B. Benson Thu, 06 Nov 2008 22:15:56 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21596 JCH --- Well, let us hope that we don't have to wait until 2030 CE for the 3rd to 5th QTR of the next growth cycle. I guess I'll try to stand with my $600 (2008 CE dollars) a barrel by 2030 CE. JCH — Well, let us hope that we don’t have to wait until 2030 CE for the 3rd to 5th QTR of the next growth cycle.

I guess I’ll try to stand with my $600 (2008 CE dollars) a barrel by 2030 CE.

]]> By: JCH http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21579 JCH Thu, 06 Nov 2008 20:08:17 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21579 Surely they mean in 2030 the price will be the equivalent of 200 of today's dollars, For two years I have been telling my investment buddies the only way to get barrel prices down was a recession. Now oil is cheap and their portfolios have been gutted. They're not liking cheap oil half as much as they thought they would. When/if global growth renews itself, oil will go to $200 in the 3rd to 5th QTR of that growth cycle. Surely they mean in 2030 the price will be the equivalent of 200 of today’s dollars,

For two years I have been telling my investment buddies the only way to get barrel prices down was a recession. Now oil is cheap and their portfolios have been gutted. They’re not liking cheap oil half as much as they thought they would.

When/if global growth renews itself, oil will go to $200 in the 3rd to 5th QTR of that growth cycle.

]]> By: David B. Benson http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21578 David B. Benson Thu, 06 Nov 2008 20:07:55 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21578 By 2030 CE crude3 oil will be about $600 per barrel. Or maybe that is the 2040 CE price. But the energy situation is probably even worse than that. David Rutledge (CalTech EE professor) has carefully studied the actual reserves of minable coal; peak coal will be occuring right around 2030 CE. So, peak fossil fuel around 2030 CE. That gives but 21 years to replace to whole kit, kat and kaboodle with sustainable alternates. :-( By 2030 CE crude3 oil will be about $600 per barrel. Or maybe that is the 2040 CE price.

But the energy situation is probably even worse than that. David Rutledge (CalTech EE professor) has carefully studied the actual reserves of minable coal; peak coal will be occuring right around 2030 CE.

So, peak fossil fuel around 2030 CE.

That gives but 21 years to replace to whole kit, kat and kaboodle with sustainable alternates. :-(

]]> By: Michael Hoexter http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21573 Michael Hoexter Thu, 06 Nov 2008 19:50:44 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/06/iea-oil-price-to-rebound-to-100-when-economy-recovers-then-soar-to-200-by-2030/#comment-21573 "Soar to $200 in 2030" is just an unthinking re-quote of a press release. As the previous commenter mentions, $200 a barrel in 2030 will be a miniscule price for oil. IEA's forecasting is either very bad or PR for the oil industry packaged as a "warning". “Soar to $200 in 2030″ is just an unthinking re-quote of a press release. As the previous commenter mentions, $200 a barrel in 2030 will be a miniscule price for oil. IEA’s forecasting is either very bad or PR for the oil industry packaged as a “warning”.

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