The big money interests have developed a very sophisticated system of denying the truth and muddying the waters and confusing the American People on the most important issues facing us over the past 30 years and that has usually prevented us from being able to elect progressive leaders and even when we do (say Clinton) they are unable to enact meaningful policy changes.

Hirsch is just playing that card again here – and doing so in a most obvious and overt way. I think he’s testing a line of attack that really won’t work but they will keep trying different lines to scare us off.

My point is that to sell what needs to be done we need to appeal to the same psychology that allows the right wing to defeat us – that is “do it for your country, do it for your family” not necessarily altruistic but the point is to get the job done. Every great Democratic President has been able to rally the nation during a time of crisis and thats what I hope Barak can do. Thats what I was trying to say. You and I are on the same page.

“One of the most common problems he writes about is that the elite in these societies had a vested interest in not letting the general population know about the impending disaster.”

Doesn’t really apply in our case. Knowledge flows freely to anyone with the time to absorb it. Our problem is that our entire civilisation is based on fossil fuel and it is highly questionable whether it will survive when there is none left. In which case it doesn’t much matter who knows what and who believes what – we are likely heading off the cliff anyway.

Your post was rather spoiled (for me) by the nationalistic focus in the last para. We need a Global Call for Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy. Actually, what we really need is for the world to agree to stop burning fossil fuel…

I’ve been writing and speaking about peak oil for about a year and a half. Some people got it right off the bat, but initially most said well that can’t be true otherwise our “leaders” would all be talking about it and taking action – right? Wrong. When oil hit $140 and gas $4 and T-Bone Pickens spent millions running ads about it on TV people started to come around.

Now though, in classic US Political culture, the crisis is over: gas is under $2 bucks in many places and a barrel of oil costs less than $60. Problem solved, Lets not get people upset and tell them the truth because they obviously can’t handle it.

Barak’s speech to the Gov’s was right on but the time is coming soon for him and all of us to look our neighbors in the eye and give them the real story along with a Patriotic call to save our way of life and our future on this planet with a National Call for Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy.

So why do you call ‘transport’ ‘transportation’? Is there a difference?!

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“Are you implying that American-English is a bastard, illegitimate, or non-existing language?”

Yes (in 1596, when Shakepeare wrote Henry IV Part 1).

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On peak oil I do think the flood of peak oil sites has made the oil market much more volatile and has been the main reason for the recent peak of $147. It should have been a massive wake up call to get moving on alternatives but now that oil is back at $54 everyone seems to have forgotten it. The market has no memory – it just reacts to what happened 5 minutes ago.

In retrospect, the peak oil sites seemed to miss the point. Peak oil = high prices. Hence the major immediate effect is a huge drain of cash from consuming to producing countries. This in turn could been seen as the main trigger for the global recession that followed $147 oil. The real effect of peak oil is economic chaos not any sort of forced global reduction in economic activity.

I think the real problems will start at the steepest part of the Hubbert downslope, when oil is depleting globally at 6% to 8%. No amount of financial jiggery pokery is going to hide the effects of that. Just growing enough food will be a struggle, never mind fuelling our personal transport(ation). It seems unlikely that the market will provide for the countless millions of unneeded unemployed, preferring to cater for the better heeled with cash and assets. A recipe for social disaster.

The central point is that we now face an eregy limited (expensive) future.

Note: ‘Valour’, not ‘ valor’ (uggg!) Why can’t Americans spell?

Are you implying that American-English is a bastard, illegitimate, or non-existing language?

You’re hurting my poor chauvinistic American heart

On the subject of publicising peak oil, it seems likely that the 10 year rise from $10 to $147 was, in part, due to peak-oil speculation. If that is how the market deals with the knowledge of peak oil then frankly what is the point of bigging it up?

It would have been less disruptive just to let the market gently work it out for itself.

Uh, speculation IS the market. It comes with the packadge. Don’t like that? Then don’t advocate markets that are free enough to speculate.

But to answer your question: we don’t know, because we don’t know for certain how fast peak oil will hit and when it will occur, is it happening already or will it take another 50 years? Those things are important, because of the long time scale required to radically transform energy and transportation systems. When the market says: “Woa! this is peak oil, OK, let’s invest in transforming the energy and transportation systems” it may be too little, too late. The market may decide that 10000 dollar per barrel of oil will be needed now, which may devastate societies.

It would have been less disruptive just to let the market gently work it out for itself.

‘The better part of valour is discretion; in the which better part I have saved my life.’

Note: ‘Valour’, not ‘ valor’ (uggg!) Why can’t Americans spell?

[JR: Points taken. That's what I get for trusting online quote dictionaries. As for spelling, on the side of the pond we are trying to save ink!]

I guess the site decided not so….