Maybe 450 ppm, maybe 550 ppm.

http://peakoil.solarcentury.com/ wp-content/ uploads/ 2008/ 10/ oil-report-final.pdf

It has an interesting analysis of future production from Chris Skrebowski and a response from Shell.

Coal’s return raises pollution threat
Rising prices are spurring plans for a big increase in mining despite a threat to climate change goals
http://www.guardian.co.uk/ environment/ 2008/ nov/ 23/ fossil-fuels-pollution

Britain is poised to expand its coal mining industry, despite fears that the move will lead to a rise in climate change emissions and harm communities and the environment.

Freedom of information requests and council records show that in the past 18 months 14 companies have applied to dig nearly 60 million tonnes of coal from 58 new or enlarged opencast mines. At least six coal-fired power stations are planned. If all the applications are approved, the fastest expansion of UK coal mining in 40 years could see southern Scotland and Northumberland become two of the most heavily mined regions in Europe.

Secret advice to politicians: oilsands emissions hard to scrub
Briefing document is pessimistic on carbon storage and capture
http://www.cbc.ca/ canada/ story/ 2008/ 11/ 24/ sands-trap.html

“…The Canadian and Alberta governments are spending about $2.5 billion on developing carbon capture and storage, and the oilsands generally come up as the first reason for spending the money…”

To quote: In his typically analytical fashion, Simmons went hunting for data. He found it in the form of hundreds of technical papers submitted by Saudi oil geologists to the Society of Petroleum Engineers over the past 50 years. Simmons spent the month of August 2003 sitting on his porch in Maine and grinding his way through the minutiae of technical accounts of, for instance, reservoir pressure and water-cut percentages, trying to piece together the challenges that the Saudi geologists had encountered in managing their precious oilfields. In the end, his conclusion was clear. “I finished reading the last paper on a Sunday afternoon,” says Simmons, “and I sat back and I thought, Holy crap, this is unbelievable. I’ve just discovered the biggest energy illusion ever in the world. We’re in big trouble. I’m going to write a book.”

And so he did. But writing the book didn’t exhaust his passion. Today he is more convinced than ever that we’ve reached peak oil. If he’s right, current world oil production- 86 million barrels a day- is about as high as we’re going to go. End quote.

So maybe the Saudis aren’t upping production because they can’t, not because they’re waiting for higher prices. And the problem with peak oil being an antidote to global warming is that, as Joe has pointed out, “Only massive expansion of climate-destroying unconventional sources like the tar sands can stop a serious decline in non-OPEC oil.” Therefore, the problems of peak oil and global warming must be addressed as a single issue, not separately.

Keep up the good work, Joe — someone has to tell it like it is!!

And by the way Saudi Arabia has much less oil than we think.

You ARE confused. It is the EIA that has become more pessimistic recently. The IEA has been pessimistic (i.e. realistic) for some time now. But you and I are using the words differently I think. By pessimistic I mean a realistic. But let me cut to the chase if I wasn’t clear.

There aren’t another six Saudi Arabias — except of course in our wasteful cars, buildings, factories, and lifestyles. Unless this global recession turns into a long-term depression, we will be going back $150 a barrel oil in a few years.

Peak oil is indeed good for those who want action on warming — indeed, if you read Hansen’s analysis, he is essentially counting on peak oil.

I’m confused. I thought you wanted to drastically cut CO2, yet here you are describing the IEA as ‘pessimistic’ for suggesting that peak oil is nigh. The worst possible outcome for climate change would be to find 6 new Saudis – it would drive down the price of oil and delay further the day of reckoning when we have to get serious about alternatives.

The recent hijacking of the Sirius Star bring it home. The world burns through the equivalent of 40 of these vast tankers of oil every day.

$60 oil also makes sure we don’t invest in new oil projects (oil sands, offshore, etc). I can’t wait until the domestic oil companies come to DC asking for a bailout.

Has much been written about electric trucks? I realize this is an urban bias, but whenever I see 20+ delivery trucks idling I wonder how much energy is being wasted. Even an APU would be enough. Or am I wrong in thinking that commercial transportation is a major user of gasoline?