Comments on: Can China go green?

By: Sara M

Sara M — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 14:34:44 +0000

Given that energy intensity reductions were less than 4% in both 2006 and 2007, achieving a reduction of 4.61% in 2008 is insufficient – annual energy intensity reduction would need to average 5.44% per year for 2008-10 according to Zhang (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1285618) for the target to be met. However, 4.61% could get them “back on track” as you say.
Sara

By: geoffrey lewis

geoffrey lewis — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 10:18:39 +0000

Robert-
Good article. Question with your math though:
The China Daily article reported that China reduced energy intensity by 3.46% in the first 9 months, but does not say this is an annualized rate. Therefore, shouldn’t we expect to see China reduce their intensity by 4.61% if they maintain that pace through the fourth quarter? This would start getting them back on track to the 20% reduction, although there is still a LOT of work to do…

Best,
Geoff
http://www.chinagreenbuildings.blogspot.com

By: Bob Wallace

Bob Wallace — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 06:52:14 +0000

Robert – Joe -

Can you please put this into some perspective?

How are the US, Europeans, other countries doing with lowering their energy per unit GDP? How much might any improvement be due to shipping some of our most energy demanding production to China?

Air really improved in a bunch of our eastern cities when we quit making steel there as steel moved to other countries….

By: Bob Wallace

Bob Wallace — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 19:52:51 +0000

“So what if China reduces its annual energy use per unit GDP by 4% if its GDP is rising 8% to 10% a year and the resulting 4% to 6% growth in energy is met primarily by coal?”

Wonder how much of that GDP growth is simply manufacturing moving from other countries to China and how “clean” that manufacturing would have been if left where it was?

–

China is zooming with installing wind power….

…”by the end of 2008 China’s total installed base of wind power production will have already reached 10 GW, two years ahead of the revised (made more optimistic) plan. Some experts are estimating that by 2010, the total installed capacity for wind power generation in China will reach 20 GW and that by 2020 China’s installed base of wind power will total 100 GW.

Estimates by experts in wind power development in Inner Mongolia have an even more optimistic assessment; they believe that by 2010 China’s total installed base of wind farms will total 27,700 megawatts (MW) and that China will then be the fourth largest producer of wind power in the world. The Inner Mongolia experts further predict that China will become the third largest producer of wind power worldwide by 2015.”

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=52764

Right now China’s wind farms are being built faster than they can be connected. Only about 75% of the potential wind output is connected to the grid.

—

Robert – when you say things like 3.46% being “well below” 4% are you sure you aren’t letting some bias sneak into your analysis?

By: hapa

hapa — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 18:42:32 +0000

considering how much of our “carbon intensity” improvement was caused by the inflation of housing prices through credit we all know now was — what it was — “energy intensity” is especially meaningless — relating only to the value of the goods and services being bought and sold, meaning china’s efficiency plan could be restated, “we hope not to be in the toaster business forever.”

to whom wrote the headline: energy efficiency is part of — and the most conventional, least challenging part of — “going green.” there’s not a word in this article about virgin inputs, byproducts, materials reclamation, conservation, durability, or true sustainability for any sector of their activity.

clean energy tech supporting a filthy factory system building disposable goods for export to throwawayland, USA — is what it is, a practical accomplishment, but they and we both have a lot of other eco-footprint goals to set before we can be said to be going green.

green is bigger than climate and so are our challenges this century.…