Comments on: Finally, Roger Pielke admits he supports policies that will take us to 5-7°C warming or more http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sat, 21 Nov 2009 19:09:26 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Asteroid Miner http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25557 Asteroid Miner Wed, 24 Dec 2008 05:10:09 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25557 "The destruction of humanity as we know it" would indeed be the result if you meant 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit. That is 2.8 to 3.9 degrees centigrade. The paleontologists have told us that only 1 [or 1 more] degree centigrade of global warming is enough to convert Nebraska, etc. into a desert of blowing sand. The Midwest has been a desert before and can easily be a desert again. The desert extended far into Canada. As has happened to a few dozen previous civilizations, the result is an end to our civilization. Since you are reading this, you will be among the casualties. The casualty rate is typically 99.99%. Modern Western civilization is not immune. The difference this time is that the fall will be global. Whether or not we prevail, the burning of coal to make electricity will stop. If we fail, it will be because civilization itself will end. If we succeed, it will be because coal fired power plants will be illegal. I strongly prefer the latter. Reference books: "Six Degrees" by Mark Lynas, "Collapse" by Jared Diamond and "The Long Summer" by Brian Fagan. “The destruction of humanity as we know it” would indeed be the result if you meant 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit. That is 2.8 to 3.9 degrees centigrade. The paleontologists have told us that only 1 [or 1 more] degree centigrade of global warming is enough to convert Nebraska, etc. into a desert of blowing sand. The Midwest has been a desert before and can easily be a desert again. The desert extended far into Canada. As has happened to a few dozen previous civilizations, the result is an end to our civilization. Since you are reading this, you will be among the casualties. The casualty rate is typically 99.99%. Modern Western civilization is not immune. The difference this time is that the fall will be global. Whether or not we prevail, the burning of coal to make electricity will stop. If we fail, it will be because civilization itself will end. If we succeed, it will be because coal fired power plants will be illegal. I strongly prefer the latter.

Reference books: “Six Degrees” by Mark Lynas, “Collapse” by Jared Diamond and “The Long Summer” by Brian Fagan.

]]> By: Asteroid Miner http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25551 Asteroid Miner Wed, 24 Dec 2008 02:12:18 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25551 "Result in the self-destruction of humanity as we know it." Right on jromm, except for the "as we know it" part. Which temperature scale were you using? The paleontology department has determined that 6 degrees centigrade is the EXTINCTION point, as I thought I had posted here before: Global Warming can lead to Hydrogen Sulfide gas coming out of the oceans. Hydrogen Sulfide gas will Kill all people. Homo Sap will go EXTINCT unless drastic action is taken NOW. October 2006 Scientific American "EARTH SCIENCE Impact from the Deep Strangling heat and gases emanating from the earth and sea, not asteroids, most likely caused several ancient mass extinctions. Could the same killer-greenhouse conditions build once again? By Peter D. Ward downloaded from: http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=00037A5D-A938-150E-A93883414B7F0000&sc=I100322 ....................Most of the article omitted...................... But with atmospheric carbon climbing at an annual rate of 2 ppm and expected to accelerate to 3 ppm, levels could approach 900 ppm by the end of the next century, and conditions that bring about the beginnings of ocean anoxia may be in place. How soon after that could there be a new greenhouse extinction? That is something our society should never find out." Press Release Pennsylvania State University FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Monday, Nov. 3, 2003 downloaded from: http://www.geosociety.org/meetings/2003/prPennStateKump.htm "In the end-Permian, as the levels of atmospheric oxygen fell and the levels of hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide rose, the upper levels of the oceans could have become rich in hydrogen sulfide catastrophically. This would kill most of the oceanic plants and animals. The hydrogen sulfide dispersing in the atmosphere would kill most terrestrial life." www.astrobio.net is a NASA web zine. See: http://www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=672 http://www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1535 http://www.astrobio.net/news/article2509.html http://astrobio.net/news/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=2429&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0 These articles agree with the first 2. They all say 6 degrees C or 1000 parts per million CO2 is the extinction point. The global warming is already 1.3 degree Farenheit. 11 degrees Farenheit is about 6 degrees Celsius. The book "Six Degrees" by Mark Lynas agrees. If the global warming is 6 degrees centigrade, we humans go extinct. See: http://www.marklynas.org/2007/4/23/six-steps-to-hell-summary-of-six-degrees-as-published-in-the-guardian "Under a Green Sky" by Peter D. Ward, Ph.D., 2007. Paleontologist discusses mass extinctions of the past and the one we are doing to ourselves. OIL SHALE, TAR SANDS AND COAL MUST BE LEFT IN THE GROUND TO AVOID THE EXTINCTION OF US HUMANS. We have to convert to plug-in hybrid cars so that electricity made by low-CO2 methods powers most of our driving. Nuclear power produces the least CO2 of ANY source of electricity. 32 countries have nuclear power plants. Only 9 have the bomb. The top 4 producers of CO2 all have nuclear power plants, coal fired power plants and nuclear bombs. They are the USA, China, India and Russia. Reducing CO2 production by 90% by 2050 requires drastic action in the USA, China, India and Russia. Coal, oil shale and tar sands must be left untouched in the ground. I have no connection to the nuclear power industry. “Result in the self-destruction of humanity as we know it.” Right on jromm, except for the “as we know it” part. Which temperature scale were you using? The paleontology department has determined that 6 degrees centigrade is the EXTINCTION point, as I thought I had posted here before:

Global Warming can lead to Hydrogen Sulfide gas coming out of
the oceans. Hydrogen Sulfide gas will Kill all people. Homo
Sap will go EXTINCT unless drastic action is taken NOW.

October 2006 Scientific American

“EARTH SCIENCE
Impact from the Deep
Strangling heat and gases emanating from the earth and sea, not asteroids, most likely caused several ancient mass extinctions. Could the same killer-greenhouse conditions build once again?
By Peter D. Ward
downloaded from:

http://www.sciam.com/ article.cfm?articleID=00037A5D-A938-150E-A93883414B7F0000&sc=I100322

………………..Most of the article omitted………………….
But with atmospheric carbon climbing at an annual rate of 2 ppm and expected to accelerate to 3 ppm, levels could approach 900 ppm by the end of the next century, and conditions that bring about the beginnings of ocean anoxia may be in place. How soon after that could there be a new greenhouse extinction? That is something our society should never find out.”

Press Release
Pennsylvania State University
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Monday, Nov. 3, 2003
downloaded from:
http://www.geosociety.org/ meetings/ 2003/ prPennStateKump.htm

“In the end-Permian, as the levels of atmospheric oxygen fell and the levels of hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide rose, the upper levels of the oceans could have become rich in hydrogen sulfide catastrophically. This would kill most of the oceanic plants and animals. The hydrogen sulfide dispersing in the atmosphere would kill most terrestrial life.”

http://www.astrobio.net is a NASA web zine. See:

http://www.astrobio.net/ news/ modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=672

http://www.astrobio.net/ news/ modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1535

http://www.astrobio.net/news/article2509.html

http://astrobio.net/ news/ modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=2429&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0

These articles agree with the first 2. They all say 6 degrees C or 1000 parts per million CO2 is the extinction point.

The global warming is already 1.3 degree Farenheit. 11 degrees Farenheit is about 6 degrees Celsius. The book “Six Degrees” by Mark Lynas agrees. If the global warming is 6 degrees centigrade, we humans go extinct. See:
http://www.marklynas.org/ 2007/ 4/ 23/ six-steps-to-hell-summary-of-six-degrees-as-published-in-the-guardian

“Under a Green Sky” by Peter D. Ward, Ph.D., 2007. Paleontologist discusses mass extinctions of the past and the one we are doing to ourselves.

OIL SHALE, TAR SANDS AND COAL MUST BE LEFT IN THE GROUND TO AVOID THE EXTINCTION OF US HUMANS.
We have to convert to plug-in hybrid cars so that electricity made by low-CO2 methods powers most of our driving. Nuclear power produces the least CO2 of ANY source of electricity.
32 countries have nuclear power plants. Only 9 have the bomb. The top 4 producers of CO2 all have nuclear power plants, coal fired power plants and nuclear bombs. They are the USA, China, India and Russia. Reducing CO2 production by 90% by 2050 requires drastic action in the USA, China, India and Russia. Coal, oil shale and tar sands must be left untouched in the ground.

I have no connection to the nuclear power industry.

]]> By: Steve Bloom http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25534 Steve Bloom Tue, 23 Dec 2008 21:03:28 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25534 Recalling Oscar Wilde's remark that the only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about, please do stick to that resolution, Joe. Recalling Oscar Wilde’s remark that the only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about, please do stick to that resolution, Joe.

]]> By: Aaron d http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25524 Aaron d Tue, 23 Dec 2008 19:27:31 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25524 Sorry, misread the $5 a ton CO2 tax. Still, is this really going encourage companies to change their ways, or just lower their profit margins slightly? Sorry, misread the $5 a ton CO2 tax. Still, is this really going encourage companies to change their ways, or just lower their profit margins slightly?

]]> By: Aaron d http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25523 Aaron d Tue, 23 Dec 2008 19:18:40 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25523 Great post Joe. Americans are highly resistant to change. Sometimes I believe only a hard slap across the face will get anything done to reduce GHG emissions in this country. A 5c a gallon tax, isn't exactly the hard slap I feel is needed to change the behavior in this country (like you said, what if anything does this do to make the largest GHG polluters change their ways. eg coal power plants). Thankfully we'll have the right people in office next month to give it our best shot. Great post Joe. Americans are highly resistant to change. Sometimes I believe only a hard slap across the face will get anything done to reduce GHG emissions in this country. A 5c a gallon tax, isn’t exactly the hard slap I feel is needed to change the behavior in this country (like you said, what if anything does this do to make the largest GHG polluters change their ways. eg coal power plants).
Thankfully we’ll have the right people in office next month to give it our best shot.

]]> By: Teryn Norris http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25502 Teryn Norris Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:38:29 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25502 Joe has mischaracterized the positions of the Breakthrough Institute. For those readers who would like to understand where we stand, Jesse Jenkins wrote a very clarifying piece here: http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2008/10/let_the_record_stand_where_we.shtml [<em>JR: I am deleting the rest of this comment because my post was decidedly not any aimed at B.I. It was a direct response to Pielke. He appears to have some different positions from B.I. People can go to your link if they want to, but Pielke has provided links to his own "specific policies" and that is what is relevant for the discussion here.</em>] Joe has mischaracterized the positions of the Breakthrough Institute. For those readers who would like to understand where we stand, Jesse Jenkins wrote a very clarifying piece here:

http://thebreakthrough.org/ blog/ 2008/ 10/ let_the_record_stand_where_we.shtml

[JR: I am deleting the rest of this comment because my post was decidedly not any aimed at B.I. It was a direct response to Pielke. He appears to have some different positions from B.I. People can go to your link if they want to, but Pielke has provided links to his own "specific policies" and that is what is relevant for the discussion here.]

]]> By: Sylvain http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25481 Sylvain Tue, 23 Dec 2008 07:27:48 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25481 Joe, You realize that people like you are those that delay action from being taken. You want the grand slam instead of scoring one point at a time. In doing so, like most professional baseball players who try for the fence you get struck out by a smarter pitcher. In your case, I guess it is not hard to outsmart you. [<em>JR: Yeah, people who listen to me are the reason we haven't taken action. I'm afraid you've mistaken Earth for the Bizarro World. I'd settle for even trying to get someone on base. Pielke wants to concede the game before it even begins to study the rules for a couple more decades. Guess he and you are really playing for the other side.</em>] Joe,

You realize that people like you are those that delay action from being taken.

You want the grand slam instead of scoring one point at a time. In doing so, like most professional baseball players who try for the fence you get struck out by a smarter pitcher. In your case, I guess it is not hard to outsmart you.

[JR: Yeah, people who listen to me are the reason we haven't taken action. I'm afraid you've mistaken Earth for the Bizarro World. I'd settle for even trying to get someone on base. Pielke wants to concede the game before it even begins to study the rules for a couple more decades. Guess he and you are really playing for the other side.]

]]> By: Eli Rabett http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25478 Eli Rabett Tue, 23 Dec 2008 05:49:58 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25478 You just figured this out? A lot of it, of course, is that Roger used to own the policy debate, and he still has a large chunk of it in the main stream media. You just figured this out? A lot of it, of course, is that Roger used to own the policy debate, and he still has a large chunk of it in the main stream media.

]]> By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25465 Roger Pielke, Jr. Mon, 22 Dec 2008 22:46:46 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25465 Come on Joe, go ahead and let my response through. [<em>JR: Actually not certain why your post got caught in a spam filter. This one and your earlier one didn't.</em>] Come on Joe, go ahead and let my response through.

[JR: Actually not certain why your post got caught in a spam filter. This one and your earlier one didn't.]

]]> By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25463 Roger Pielke, Jr. Mon, 22 Dec 2008 22:40:46 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/22/finally-roger-pielke-admits-he-supports-policies-that-will-take-us-to-5-7%c2%b0c-warming-or-more/#comment-25463 Joe, you are one strange fellow. You've been accurately pegged here: http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2008/04/deconstructing_joe_romm_a_prim.shtml I do look forward to when you will ignore me, that would at least stop the smears. but you can't seem to resist can you? [<em>JR: Gosh, who would have guessed? You cite a post written by a group you work with that also pushes long-term technology over real action as the "solution." But since you've not actually pointed out a single smear, let alone many, and since you apparently can't rebut my direct citations of your work -- which be hard to do without rebutting yourself -- perhaps we can both move on.</em>] Joe, you are one strange fellow. You’ve been accurately pegged here:

http://thebreakthrough.org/ blog/ 2008/ 04/ deconstructing_joe_romm_a_prim.shtml

I do look forward to when you will ignore me, that would at least stop the smears. but you can’t seem to resist can you?

[JR: Gosh, who would have guessed? You cite a post written by a group you work with that also pushes long-term technology over real action as the "solution."

But since you've not actually pointed out a single smear, let alone many, and since you apparently can't rebut my direct citations of your work -- which be hard to do without rebutting yourself -- perhaps we can both move on.]

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