Comments on: NSIDC: Arctic is on thin ice — literally — and that means the “perma”frost is too

By: P. G. Dudda

P. G. Dudda — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 15:00:16 +0000

RE: the bit about permafrost still being preserved north of 70°N: A quick look at google maps will demonstrate that this is north of most of the Canadian Arctic, roughly midway up Greenland, and most of Siberia is south of that, too. In other words, there isn’t much land to speak of, north of 70°N… so, if the permafrost is gone south of that, it’s functionally equivalent to saying “all of the permafrost is gone”.

By: paulm

paulm — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 06:13:57 +0000

Harrier, we have missed the 2dC mark. Check the science.

All this drilling in the Arctic is probably going to trigger methane release. So this is really The Age of Stupid.

By: paulm

paulm — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 06:13:33 +0000

That should have been…

Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period
http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~kka/NGRIP_nature.pdf

By: paulm

paulm — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 06:12:20 +0000

Harrier, we have missed the 2dC mark. Check the science.

All this drilling in the Arctic is probably going to trigger methane release. So this is really The Age of Stupid.

Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period
http://www.gfy.ku.dk/ ~kka/ NGRIP_nature.pdfhttp:/ / www.gfy.ku.dk/ ~kka/ NGRIP_nature.pdf

By: Leland Palmer

Leland Palmer — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 05:49:16 +0000

This could be part of the problem. Scott Borgerson, writing in Foreign Affairs, the official journal of the Council on Foreign Affairs:

The Great Game Moves North

As the Arctic Melts, Countries Vie for Control

March 25, 2009

Last July, the U.S. Geological Survey released the first-ever comprehensive assessment of the region’s oil and gas potential, and the numbers are staggering. Based on a resource appraisal of technically recoverable hydrocarbons, the Arctic contains about 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and about 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas. Together this represents 22 percent of all untapped but technically recoverable hydrocarbons. More than 80 percent of these resources lie offshore ….

…The Russian federal government plans to invest more than a billion dollars in the northern port of Murmansk, doubling the port’s capacity by 2015. Moscow also pledged last summer to build at least three new nuclear icebreaker ships to join what is already the world’s largest icebreaker fleet. And much to the chagrin of environmentalists, Moscow completed a reactor vessel for the first floating nuclear power plant in October 2008….

…To prepare for such threats, U.S. national security strategy should focus not only on efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases but also on how to adapt to their effects. Nowhere is this more urgent than in the Arctic. The United States still needs to ratify the UN Law of the Sea Convention, reach out to Canada on new Arctic cooperative initiatives, and replenish its geriatric icebreaker fleet (the latter doesn’t look to be happening anytime soon, unfortunately, with no money allotted to it in recent U.S. budget plans).

Wow, what an original approach to dealing with climate change.

Adapt to it, he says.

Drill for more oil, he says.

Build nuclear icebreakers, he says.

Dr. Borgerson also recently testified before the House Foreign Relations Committee, with a similar message.

By: ecostew

ecostew — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 03:22:02 +0000

Clearly the AGW forcing is an issue – it’s markedly different than solar cycles, Earth orbits, volcanoes, etc., both, of which, are part of peer-reviewed science. The persistence of GHGs and triggering of feed-backs is a huge issue. We are the forcing issue (GHG emission and other activities), and feed-backs based on peer-reviewed science appear to be intensifying.

By: Harrier

Harrier — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 02:33:06 +0000

I wonder if it would be possible to stabilize the climate at some kind of ‘average interglacial temperature’ that could persist as we face the reality of an ice-free Earth. That’s a particular interest of mine: just as I wonder where the bottom is in this recession, I wonder where the ‘bottom’ might be for climate change as we try to get our emissions under control. If we miss the 2C mark, but do manage to reduce our emissions, where might the climate stabilize? Where does the warming slow and stop?

By: David B. Benson

David B. Benson — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 01:33:51 +0000

Harrier — Thank you. Near to shore, in shallow water(250 m), it appears that the Arctic Ocen only has to warm up a little to begin expressing some methane. I don’t know the rate of downward warming, but that is part of the so-called mixed layer above the main thermocline at 400 to 700 meters down.

Could check ice core records for atmospheric methane during the previous interglacial, the Eemian.

By: Gail

Gail — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 00:28:56 +0000

From my reading, Gilding has long since faced down the prospect of the worst-case scenarios – and decided to soldier on. This gives me courage. He describes himself as a realistic optimist who finds himself “…soberly accepting the scale of the coming challenges and all the sadness this entails, but still confident we will come through this and rebuild.”

In response to my email, he sent me a message in which he said, more or less, that losing biodiversity (that would be all sorts of trees, and polar bears, and lovely fish and on and on) is tragic and wrenching – but that he has moved past that and believes it is now about “us”. Which I took to mean, how we people can manage to survive and also preserve some vestiges of what makes the human imagination, our culture and history, so unique and beautiful.

It’s a brutal conclusion, and arrogant. But planning for survival may be all we have left, if we are already past the point where, even with a no-holds-barred massive effort, society cannot halt terrible extinctions due to climate change.

So in a perverse way, I do find solace in Gilding’s approach.

By: Harrier

Harrier — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 00:10:45 +0000

David, is something like this what you want?

http://www.killerinourmidst.com/ grafix/ MH%20stability%20curve.jpg