Comments on: North Pole poised to be largely ice-free by 2020: “It’s like the Arctic is covered with an egg shell and the egg shell is now just cracking completely” http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/ The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics Sat, 20 Mar 2010 17:52:20 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Dingo http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/#comment-250203 Dingo Sat, 09 Jan 2010 02:12:31 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/?p=6618#comment-250203 Yes, Bob's Thermogeddon was very prescient. An "ice free Arctic by 2013" means a subsequent sharp rise in methane release from the tundra and sub-Arctic slopes by 2020, with thunderous explosions that release more heat and may initiate icequakes in Greenland, speeding up the glacial rush to sea. And we know where all that takes us: at least 60m sea level rise by the 22nd century. Goodbye most of northern Europe's farmlands, southern US, central valley of California, coastal China, Pakistan, central Australia, and goodbye cities with 2+ billion people in them. A starving migrating world, and a heck of a lot more fighting and blaming. By 2013, those sunspots may be back, and we'll probably be running low on denial. The technofixers in all developed nations that cannot handle the prospects of moving cities uphill will be in full swing, mucking about with sun shields, sulfur aerosols, fake volcanoes, yada yada. Meanwhile, we'll see a gargantuan "40 years too late" push towards "green energy" that still all has to be built with mountains of fossil fuels, so the backside slope of peak everything is likely to be a cliff, and the temperature charts still climbing like a hockey stick. Catton calls it Overshoot and Wilson the Bottleneck. Lovelock suggests Gaia's going into RESET mode. But cheer up progressives, it's only doom and gloom for certain terrestrial mammals. Yes, Bob’s Thermogeddon was very prescient. An “ice free Arctic by 2013″ means a subsequent sharp rise in methane release from the tundra and sub-Arctic slopes by 2020, with thunderous explosions that release more heat and may initiate icequakes in Greenland, speeding up the glacial rush to sea. And we know where all that takes us: at least 60m sea level rise by the 22nd century. Goodbye most of northern Europe’s farmlands, southern US, central valley of California, coastal China, Pakistan, central Australia, and goodbye cities with 2+ billion people in them. A starving migrating world, and a heck of a lot more fighting and blaming.

By 2013, those sunspots may be back, and we’ll probably be running low on denial. The technofixers in all developed nations that cannot handle the prospects of moving cities uphill will be in full swing, mucking about with sun shields, sulfur aerosols, fake volcanoes, yada yada. Meanwhile, we’ll see a gargantuan “40 years too late” push towards “green energy” that still all has to be built with mountains of fossil fuels, so the backside slope of peak everything is likely to be a cliff, and the temperature charts still climbing like a hockey stick.

Catton calls it Overshoot and Wilson the Bottleneck. Lovelock suggests Gaia’s going into RESET mode. But cheer up progressives, it’s only doom and gloom for certain terrestrial mammals.

]]> By: Greg http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/#comment-225939 Greg Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:36:33 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/?p=6618#comment-225939 And now for some actual facts from December 8, 2009. In the summer of 2009 the Arctic Sea-Ice melt was less pronounced than the low point of 07/08, indicative of an increase in 2 and 3 year old ice for next year and ... hence ... an increase in ice thickness. If current climate trends continue into next year (as they appear to be doing), the summer of 2010 should see a commensurately diminished melt-rate and a continuation of the thickening of the arctic ice pack (well beyond the "doom-and-gloom" projected levels). [<em>JR: Nice try.</em>] And now for some actual facts from December 8, 2009.

In the summer of 2009 the Arctic Sea-Ice melt was less pronounced than the low point of 07/08, indicative of an increase in 2 and 3 year old ice for next year and … hence … an increase in ice thickness. If current climate trends continue into next year (as they appear to be doing), the summer of 2010 should see a commensurately diminished melt-rate and a continuation of the thickening of the arctic ice pack (well beyond the “doom-and-gloom” projected levels).

[JR: Nice try.]

]]> By: Aberdown http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/#comment-163881 Aberdown Sun, 18 Oct 2009 05:12:38 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/?p=6618#comment-163881 Thanks Guys' Brilliant Article! Thanks Guys’ Brilliant Article!

]]> By: Bob http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/#comment-80231 Bob Sat, 20 Jun 2009 20:36:36 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/?p=6618#comment-80231 Sorry folks but sea ice will not ever be a factor in what direction governments take in considering environmental impacts. Commerce always trumps environment. As long as profit is the only incentive for corporations, protecting the environment will be low on the agenda. It will be talked about many meetings will take place the corporate press will cover and give the impression of progress. But little of substance will be done until there is a steady continued disastrous environmental impact effecting millions of western people. Only then when the western nations are effected will change happen. The people of asia befalling environmental burdens will never precipitate action by western governments. Emergentant Pollutants cock-tailing into new diseases and conditions on human and wildlife populations has not effected laws, rules, and concerns by governments. Why would the bioaccumulation of multiple chemical compounds in mothers milk reducing IQ by 2% in American population be of no concern? Because profit trumps environmental and human impacts. Sea level rise will change nothing it will happen slowly a few communities at a time washing away and the dance will go on. It might be wise to get a few extra feet above sea level if possible. Sorry folks but sea ice will not ever be a factor in what direction governments take in considering environmental impacts. Commerce always trumps environment.
As long as profit is the only incentive for corporations, protecting the environment will be low on the agenda. It will be talked about many meetings will take place the corporate press will cover and give the impression of progress. But little of substance will be done until there is a steady continued disastrous environmental impact effecting millions of western people. Only then when the western nations are effected will change happen. The people of asia befalling environmental burdens will never precipitate action by western governments. Emergentant Pollutants cock-tailing into new diseases and conditions on human and wildlife populations has not effected laws, rules, and concerns by governments. Why would the bioaccumulation of multiple chemical compounds in mothers milk reducing IQ by 2% in American population be of no concern? Because profit trumps environmental and human impacts. Sea level rise will change nothing it will happen slowly a few communities at a time washing away and the dance will go on. It might be wise to get a few extra feet above sea level if possible.

]]> By: Richard Levangie http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/#comment-51912 Richard Levangie Thu, 14 May 2009 19:34:32 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/?p=6618#comment-51912 One of the climate models that has most accurately predicted Arctic amplification suggests that we'll have our first ice-free arctic summer in 2013. And Professor Wieslaw Maslowski at the Naval Postgraduate School has been quoted as saying even this estimate might be too conservative. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm One of the climate models that has most accurately predicted Arctic amplification suggests that we’ll have our first ice-free arctic summer in 2013.

And Professor Wieslaw Maslowski at the Naval Postgraduate School has been quoted as saying even this estimate might be too conservative.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 7139797.stm

]]> By: paulm http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/#comment-51901 paulm Thu, 14 May 2009 19:16:04 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/?p=6618#comment-51901 Inevitably with tipping action, its always too late to avert the spillage. I believe it bets on now for 2015 for an ice free Arctic. And it could happen earlier! Inevitably with tipping action, its always too late to avert the spillage.

I believe it bets on now for 2015 for an ice free Arctic. And it could happen earlier!

]]> By: Dorothy http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/#comment-51849 Dorothy Thu, 14 May 2009 17:01:12 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/?p=6618#comment-51849 Considering the 100 year meme, in 2002 Robert Hunter was asked to write a book about the IPCC Third Assessment. It was published in Canada under the title, "2030: Confronting Thermageddon in Our Lifetime;" in the US, "Thermageddon: Countdown to 2030." In 2002, many scientists were still saying that the Polar Ice Cap could melt by the year 2100. Hunter shocked many people, including me, by predicting that this would happen by 2050. He said that if the world didn't take action by 2030, all bets were off. Three years later, Jim Hansen told us, "The world has less than a decade to take decisive action in the battle to beat global warming or risk irreversible change that will tip the planet towards catastrophe." We were told that the Arctic Sea Ice could disappear in the summer by 2030. Look what we know now, just seven years after the publication of Hunter's book. Along with the accelerating effects of climate change, it looks like our knowledge of the science is also becoming exponential. This gives one hope. At the end of Hunter's book, you'll find this text: "If government stalls on action...that's no reason for individuals to throw in the towel, or absolve themselves of responsibility. "Nor can we dismiss the possibility of a 'self-structuring hierarchical jump,' as biophysicist John R. Platt described "deep" revolutions... (See,'What We Must Do,' in Science, November 28, 1969) His thesis was that serious change occurs when a collective restructuring is triggered by the accumulation of data which doesn't fit the old patterns, pressure building up in isolated situations that begin to converge, precipitating a clash between old and new systems. The change, when it comes, moves with the speed of lightning." There's much more on this. Get the book, which is now available for pittance on Amazon. It's a great read for the historical perspective and for the personal story of a admirable genius, whose wonderful energy lives on. Considering the 100 year meme, in 2002 Robert Hunter was asked to write a book about the IPCC Third Assessment. It was published in Canada under the title, “2030: Confronting Thermageddon in Our Lifetime;” in the US, “Thermageddon: Countdown to 2030.”

In 2002, many scientists were still saying that the Polar Ice Cap could melt by the year 2100. Hunter shocked many people, including me, by predicting that this would happen by 2050. He said that if the world didn’t take action by 2030, all bets were off.

Three years later, Jim Hansen told us, “The world has less than a decade to take decisive action in the battle to beat global warming or risk irreversible change that will tip the planet towards catastrophe.” We were told that the Arctic Sea Ice could disappear in the summer by 2030.

Look what we know now, just seven years after the publication of Hunter’s book. Along with the accelerating effects of climate change, it looks like our knowledge of the science is also becoming exponential.

This gives one hope. At the end of Hunter’s book, you’ll find this text:

“If government stalls on action…that’s no reason for individuals to throw in the towel, or absolve themselves of responsibility.

“Nor can we dismiss the possibility of a ’self-structuring hierarchical jump,’ as biophysicist John R. Platt described “deep” revolutions… (See,’What We Must Do,’ in Science, November 28, 1969) His thesis was that serious change occurs when a collective restructuring is triggered by the accumulation of data which doesn’t fit the old patterns, pressure building up in isolated situations that begin to converge, precipitating a clash between old and new systems. The change, when it comes, moves with the speed of lightning.”

There’s much more on this. Get the book, which is now available for pittance on Amazon. It’s a great read for the historical perspective and for the personal story of a admirable genius, whose wonderful energy lives on.

]]> By: Richard Pauli http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/#comment-51841 Richard Pauli Thu, 14 May 2009 16:41:29 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/?p=6618#comment-51841 An ice-free Arctic ocean will warm up tremendously, minimizing the winter freeze-over and further destabilize the Greenland climate - the more it rains instead of snows in Greenland just means a faster de-glaciation. These are all tipping point accelerators. Very, very interesting times. And Gail, you are spot on about the year 2100 target - it is too bad that is such a convenient number... First we should note that it is now 91 years away, and most important that year does not see the end of warming and destablization...I would prefer to see more near term projections... 2030 and 2050. As well as a two hundred year forecast. Other than IPCC - which is outdated - Where can I read of the informed projections? An ice-free Arctic ocean will warm up tremendously, minimizing the winter freeze-over and further destabilize the Greenland climate – the more it rains instead of snows in Greenland just means a faster de-glaciation. These are all tipping point accelerators. Very, very interesting times.

And Gail, you are spot on about the year 2100 target – it is too bad that is such a convenient number… First we should note that it is now 91 years away, and most important that year does not see the end of warming and destablization…I would prefer to see more near term projections… 2030 and 2050. As well as a two hundred year forecast.

Other than IPCC – which is outdated – Where can I read of the informed projections?

]]> By: Gail http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/#comment-51831 Gail Thu, 14 May 2009 16:22:40 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/?p=6618#comment-51831 Lou, I do agree with you but what I was getting at is I think sea level rise might be the one effect that people just won't be able to ignore or pretend isn't happening or blame on something else. For instance, I just read an article about the farmers in the Central Valley of California, who are holding meetings because they are no longer allowed to divert water to irrigate. The farmers seem to unanimously blame the government for their plight. Not one of them interviewed believe drought let along climate change has anything to do with it! The next book I read is going to be "Heatstroke: Nature In an Age of Global Warming" by Anthony Barnosky who appears to express Mmuch more succinctly than I what I have been observing: "Barnosky likes ecosystems just as much as the next scientist, but in Heatstroke: Nature in an Age of Global Warming, he argues brilliantly that conservation biology can no longer focus on saving them. The reason is simple: Thanks to global warming, the ecosystem we work to save today will have a different climate tomorrow." from The Washington Post I would just amend that to say, we already have a different climate. Lou, I do agree with you but what I was getting at is I think sea level rise might be the one effect that people just won’t be able to ignore or pretend isn’t happening or blame on something else. For instance, I just read an article about the farmers in the Central Valley of California, who are holding meetings because they are no longer allowed to divert water to irrigate. The farmers seem to unanimously blame the government for their plight. Not one of them interviewed believe drought let along climate change has anything to do with it!

The next book I read is going to be “Heatstroke: Nature In an Age of Global Warming” by Anthony Barnosky who appears to express Mmuch more succinctly than I what I have been observing:

“Barnosky likes ecosystems just as much as the next scientist, but in Heatstroke: Nature in an Age of Global Warming, he argues brilliantly that conservation biology can no longer focus on saving them. The reason is simple: Thanks to global warming, the ecosystem we work to save today will have a different climate tomorrow.” from The Washington Post

I would just amend that to say, we already have a different climate.

]]> By: paulm http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/13/thin-ice-free-arctic/#comment-51787 paulm Thu, 14 May 2009 14:27:05 +0000 http://climateprogress.org/?p=6618#comment-51787 Price of gas has to go back up! Price of gas has to go back up!

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