As the author of this concept/model: -
http://www.gci.org.uk/briefings/ICE.pdf

. . . I do not recognize his comments.

C&C says nothing about per capita GDP. C&C addresses future ghg emissions globally [contraction] with a view to organising the international sharing of these [convergence] consistent with the global objective of the UNFCCC – safe a stable ghg concentrations in the atmosphere [contraction and convergence].

Ian, thanks for the background of Pielke. While we’re on backgrounds, the head of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri has no background in science or climatology and he heads the IPCC!

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/ category/ tags/ Rajendra-Pachauri

Pachauri spent much of the 1970s as a graduate student and teacher at NCSU, earning a master’s degree and a joint Ph.D. in industrial engineering and economics.

After teaching briefly at NCSU, Pachauri returned to his native India and soon assumed his current duties as head of The Energy and Resources Institute, a nonprofit scientific and policy research organization that focuses on global warming and energy issues.

It sounds like he has a pHD with a dual major in engineering and economics, and a few years of experience heading up The Energy and Resources Institute, in India.

Sounds pretty educated, to me.

And Yale has just named him head of the Climate and Energy Institute at Yale University. I guess they overlooked his terrible lack of an environmental or chlimatology degree. Perhaps they thought a dual major in economics and engineering (both closely related to climate change solutions and adaptation) plus a lot of experience heading up an environmental institute, plus the acclaim and support of his peers, was sufficient qualification to run their institute.

Of course, to the deniers, there is something wrong with just about everyone who disagrees with them, it seems.

Attributing California wild fires to climate change is sensationalist at best, IMO. I’m speaking only from observations as I grew up in California and have lived there 48 years. The state gets variable amounts of rain 4 months out of the year and turns green, which turns brown and dry by June, which is fire waiting to happen. It’s the same every year. Fire is the default setting.

Well, I have lived most of my 53 years in the state as well. My older brother’s house was narrowly missed by the Yosemite/Mariposa fire last year, which burnt nearly a complete circle around it, but missed a couple of square miles around his house. That fire burned faster and hotter than anything I have ever seen before, or heard about before.

L.A. last year, when my wife and I were there, was at firestorm conditions.

It’s never sensationalism to tell the truth, IMO.

From the Interagency Fire Center (a consortium of U.S. government agencies dealing with fire) Quadrennial Review for 2009, forcasting the next 25 years of fire fighting in the U.S.:

The effects of climate change will continue to result in greater probability of longer and bigger fire seasons, in more regions in the nation. What has already been realized in the past five years: Shorter, wetter winters and warmer drier summers, larger amounts of total fire on the landscape, more large wildfires will persist and possibly escalate in an irregular pattern termed asymmetric fire. Fire mitigation efforts must be prepared to cope with moving potentially to a 10-12 million annual wildfire acres range over the next five years.
Cumulative drought effects will further stress fuels accumulations.

The current drought cycle is expected to last for another twenty years. In terms of impact, competition for water in ecosystems, continued problems with exotic invasive and insect kill, and faster drying of vegetation will make fuels more flammable and drive fire behavior. Drought effects in the Southeast, Southwest, and West will make these areas especially vulnerable in terms of fire risk.

Ian, thanks for the background of Pielke. While we’re on backgrounds, the head of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri has no background in science or climatology and he heads the IPCC!

http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/ 2009/ 06/ coming-soon-to-forest-near-you.html

NOT the average anymore.

fluid mechanics?
thermodynamics?
physics in general?

I don’t even see how you could measure with any accuracy what “normal” is anymore, in terms of frequency and severity. While the elemental environment hasn’t changed, many factors contributing to fire frequency and severity have changed significantly; population growth, forest management practices and fire suppression.

Claiming climate change has a measureable effect on California wildfires is the same as throwing a bucket of water into a lake and claiming you changed the water level. While you may be technically correct, the measure is insignificant.

Palmer:

First, Cali wild fires are worse after wet winters, causing the overgrowth of brush that provides their fuel.

Second, that Science study on wildfires in the US West in 2005 was clearly junkscience, since it failed to control for the lack of management of western forests, including up to a century of fire suppression, creating climax forests closest to housing interfaces.

As an environmental scientist, count me as another uber denier ; ) I only visit here for amusement.

Yeah, the prospect of the climate system going out of control always makes me giggle, too. Sometimes, I get the hiccups from all the hilarity.

Actually, the Science study found that most of the wildfires were at high altitudes, in rough terrain, far from human habitation. And of course, it was a peer reviewed study.

California had 1.2 million acres burn last year, when a couple of hundred thousand is “normal” except that there are no normal fire years, anymore.

Certainly, mangement of western forests has had an effect on fuel loads.

Most people who have seriously looked at the issue concede that forest management can explain only a part of the problem. The managers of the U.S. Forest Service concluded long ago that global warming was contributing to their rapidly increasing budgets:

Watch the 60 minutes video:

http://www.cbsnews.com/ stories/ 2007/ 10/ 18/ 60minutes/ main3380176.shtml