NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10…..
In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today [click here], scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.
Today’s NOAA announcement is not news to CP readers (see June 4’s Breaking: NOAA puts out “El Niño Watch” and June 17’s, “NOAA: Fourth warmest May on record, model predicts a long and strong El Niño“). But since it is news for everyone else, I will review what this means, updating my earlier analysis with new figures. Regular readers can skip this post.
This announcement is a big deal from the perspective of heating up global temperatures and cooling off denier talking points. After all, the La Niña conditions over the past 18 months helped temporarily mute the strong human-caused warming signal, allowing the global warming deniers to push their nonsensical global cooling meme with the help of the status quo media (see “Media enable denier spin 1: A (sort of) cold January doesn’t mean climate stopped warming“).
Figure 3: Area-averaged upper-ocean heat content anomalies (°C) in the equatorial Pacific (5°N-5°S, 180º-100ºW).
Remember that back in January, NASA had predicted:
Given our expectation of the next El Niño beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance.
ENSO doesn’t change the overall warming trend, but it is a short-term modulation, what NASA labels the largest contributor to the “natural dynamical variability” of the climate system. How are El Niño and La Niña defined?
El Niño and La Niña are officially defined as sustained sea surface temperature anomalies of magnitude greater than 0.5°C across the central tropical Pacific Ocean. When the condition is met for a period of less than five months, it is classified as El Niño or La Niña conditions; if the anomaly persists for five months or longer.
You can read the basics about ENSO here. The following historical data are from NOAA’s weekly ENSO update
As the planet warms decade by decade thanks to human emissions of greenhouse gases, global temperature records tend to be set in El Niño years, like 2005, 1998, and 2007, whereas sustained La Niñas tend to cause relatively cooler years.
Human-caused global warming is so strong, however, that as NASA explained, it took a serious La Niña, plus unusually sustained low levels of solar irradiance, to make 2008 as cool as it was. Yet, notwithstanding the global warming deniers and the status quo media, 2008 wasn’t actually cool. Indeed, 2008 was almost 0.1°C warmer than the decade of the 1990s averaged as a whole.
So if we have an El Niño, then, as NASA says, record global temperatures are all but inevitable. And this brings us back to NOAA’s prediction today [boldface in original]:
Synopsis: El Niño conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through the
Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010.… Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C).
Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter.
Figure 5. Forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W). Figure courtesy of the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society. Figure updated 15 June 2009.
A hot summer and fall — how timely that would be for debating a climate bill!
Will we set a record this year for global temperature? Too soon to say, especially since the strong La Niña this winter will no doubt partly offset whatever impact the El Niño has. More likely is that 2010 is the record, since there is typically a delay of a few months between ENSO changes and changes in global temps.
And not that there was any realistic chance global temperatures would collapse this year, but now it is quite safe to say that “this will be the hottest decade in recorded history by far.“ The 2000s are on track to be nearly 0.2°C warmer than the 1990s. And that temperature jump is especially worrisome since the 1990s were only 0.14°C warmer than the 1980s.
Once we set the global temperature record, then the “no warming in 10 years” meme will die — at least until the next La Niña or major volcano and/or general lapse in coverage by the status quo media, as the “best climate blog you aren’t reading” depicted with this figure:
It’s always cooling, except, of course, when it’s not.
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- “Hadley Center to deniers: We are STILL warming”
- NASA: 2007 Second Warmest Year Ever, with Record Warmth Likely by 2010
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Once we set the global temperature record, then the “no warming in 10 years” meme will die
Unfortunately, I think you give denialists too much credit. Afterall, it’s not like 2005 stopped them from saying “global warming stopped in 1998.”
By 2015 it’ll be “no warming in 4 years”…
After all, warming stops and starts every time ENSO changes…
There are four temperature series. I think it is highly likely that some of them will set a record in 2010, and others will not. In particular Uah and RSS were roughly 0.5 degrees above trend in 1998. With 12 years of warming at 0.02 a year, this means that an El Nino would have to cause temps 0.26 degrees above trend which is far from certain.
So plenty of scope for some blogs/news outlets to trumpet ‘Warmest year on record ever’ picking whichever temp series breaks the record, and for contrary blogs to trumpet ‘El Nino failed to break the record as alarmists predicted’ based on whichever temp series does not.
I predict that we’ll be hearing “no warming in 6 months” sometime next Winter…
Warming, cooling, blah blah … am I the only one to notice the nice new design for the site?
Looks good!
The design looks good: as a skier I’ll miss la Nina.
If the climate didn’t get any hotter then the governments wouldn’t spend any money on it, nor would they pay attention to it. Put 2 and 2 together people – The climate is biased, Al Gore is fat and you are all religious zealots.
On top of the El Nino, the sun cycle is turning up as well. We are going to probably have a record breaker in 2010, and a very warm 2011.
That might matter to the media and politicians. To those who follow the climate science it doesn’t matter a bit. We know that a year or two of higher or lower temperature doesn’t change the overall upward trend at all. It doesn’t matter to the deniers either, since facts and scientific evidence that doesn’t fit their views is simply ignored.
Joe, I’ve checked out most of your links and can’t find anything on the effect of a prolonged El Nino on global climate. U.W. professor William H. Calvin recently said that during the last strong El Nino, a severe drought lasting for two years occurred in the Amazon rainforest, and that if this drought had persisted for three years, the whole rainforest might have begun to die. The loss of the Amazon rainforest would be catastrophic: massive amounts of carbon would be released, adding to the excess of over 300 billion metric tonnes we already have in our atmosphere.
Do you know of any predictions for the duration of this El Nino that extend beyond a one year period? Or do we all just have to keep our fingers crossed? And hope that within the next few months world governments will start taking climate changes seriously, which means getting to zero emissions ASAP, as well as developing safe ways to remove that excess carbon from the atmosphere.
If we do get a record breaking year this year or next (and it’s only record breaking if it is record breaking in every data set), I’m sure deniers will know that you can’t read too much into one record breaking year and it was because of El Nino anyway. It’s the cooling trend that immediately follows that matters.
As for the odds of a record this year, I don’t know, what months of this year have been record breakers so far?
By the way, you do realize that denier blogs will be all over this post if this turns out to be the third hottest year on record?
It is frankly ubelievable how the “cooling in the last 10 years” has spread like wildfire amoung deniers and even non-deniers. Are they so stupid not to look at La Nina. It’s just another talking point for them I guess.
“Once we set the global temperature record, then the “no warming in 10 years” meme will die”
I second Adam. 2005 was a global temperature record in the 2 surface records (NCDC and GISS) but the excuse from deniers was that Hadcrut (which doesn’t take into account Arctic temperatures) and the satellite record (which is even more heavily influenced by ENSO events, particularly strong ones) still showed 1998 as warmer. Satellite (lower troposphere) still might not break 1998 for awhile unless el Nino turns out to be fairly strong. It doesn’t matter that any statistical analysis reveals a warming trend, as long as there is some record year in some dataset from x years ago, we will see that year being used as a baseline and “no warming since x” still used as an argument. Remember – their target audience is always the general public.
If a record is set in all data products, we still might see “no statistically-significant warming” used by comparing the 2nd warmest year from x years ago from some dataset with the recent record-breaking year. This argument of course can be used in most decadal chunks, even during periods of steep trends.
In addition, they still have the “surface record is bad” pseudo-argument. Combine this with stories of cold weather somewhere on Earth (not too hard to find) and their political message remains fairly strong, even if scientifically pathetic.
Joe, I was wondering if that eruption of the Russian volcano that is giving us these unbelievable (in the Northern Hemisphere) sunsets will affect the temp for the next year or so? Any thoughts from the scientific community on that?
I just watched the lighting of the dust way up there, completely covering the sky, this evening in IL. It reminds me alot of the shows we got from Mt Pinatubo way back when and I was wondering if there are expectations of temporary climate impacts from it? I was thinking Pinatubo reduced global temps by more than 1.0c at the time, temporarily.
Which made me think we better get ahead of this, if it will impact temps, before the deniers grab those effects (if they are noticable) as more “proof”.
Joe:
I think you inadvertently left off the last part of the El Niño-La Niña definition: ” , it is classified as an El Niño or La Niña episode”, which brings out the difference between “conditions” (slight short-lived deviations from the average) and “episode” (longer-lived and sometimes greater deviations).
What is surprising is how fast this la nina which ended in April converted to an El Nino. The forward looking models of just a month ago were evenly split on El Nino or no, not so anymore.
Let’s not totally jump on deniers for cherry picking two of the four main temperature records favorable to their cause… aren’t we arguably doing the same with our two?
[JR: No. First off, the satellite data shows warming. Second, turning the satellite data into temperature data over the relevant part of the atmosphere isn't easy -- and the folks in charge of it have a history of bad analysis that just happened to minimize the temperature signal. Third, we live on the surface, so the surface data is the best to use.]
well I am in 8th grade and I just learne about EL Nino. I know what it does. so I am ready for it.
You should read: Climate Change Reconsidered: The 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)
helloe im 23 years old ive been studing climate change since i was in 5th grade and have kept track of the winters and summers and ocean tempt. change. Indeed the goverment needs to implement a new bill to inforce zero emmisions and to replinish the rainforest, and other timberlands, its time the g8 summit and countries get together and come up with a solution. Otherwise i would give a verry grim outcome of our world, as the emmsions become thicker and the slim amount of timber land dewindells we will incounter heavy storms, less rain and so forth, mother nature may try and counter act and may have a climate change to try and reverse the effect. if you would like to talk more about this email me at natescustomcarworks@yahoo.com
on another note instead of cutting down tree after tree, replnish our forest replant, and outlaw timber cutting. Replace lumber with marijuana (not to smoke) but this plant acutally is a stronger than lumber and can be made into a number of products. i know the goverment would never do this but i thought i would throw it out there it would also replace oil and many many other products…… ask our new president http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ 2009/ 03/ 26/ open-for-questions-obama_n_178764.html?page=5&show_comment_id=22362565#comment_22362565
I have been reading that accuweather is saying we are going to have a colder and snower winter in 2009 and 2010, then 2008-2009. Here in Rhode Island we had 53 inchs of snow last winter; well above normal. The nwa says that we a going to have a milder winter, due the El Nino.
Accuweather says they believe that the El Nino will weaken, and not be a major roll in the weather. The NWS says that the opposite will happen, and strenghten through the winter to a moderate El Nino; and the possability of a stong El Nino. First, why the two different predictions? I thought that El Nino meant a ‘warmer’ pattern. In RI, Mass., Conn, and Northern New England it has been a cold and snowy winter the last two years. PA and the Mid-Atlantic states have had two mild winters. From avaiable data, anyone here have a felling how this winter will shape up?
[JR: El Nino looks to be at most a moderate one. May last a while, though. It has different impacts in different parts of the country. I'd trust NWS more.]
If we are forcasting a milder winter than how can we be seeing snow in the midwest in early OCTOBER! Expect a record setting cold and snowy winter!
I just wonder about all of these record cold temps–New Zealand has massive snow/stranded motorists, record early school closing in Idaho, freeze warning in Texas and Oklahoma, earliest opening for ski resorts in the west and I’m freezing in the mid-atlantic dreaming about Indian summer. It seems like it’s cold all over, some warming is sounding pretty good right now.
[JR: We try to avoid what it "seems" like to people who follow websites that highlight spots of cold. We're experiencing record temps globally now.]
El Nino?? yeah right. This is the coldest Summer and fall I’ve ever seen in the midwest. Something is seriously jacked up.
As a Skier in the Sierras and Rockies, bring El Nino on! It’ll mean Sierra Cement but there will be plenty of it!
Of course global warming is generally a bad thing.
did anyone see the noaa winter forcast today? Can anyone tell me more about the NAO, and what it means. Thanks.
dontquitdayjob and others trying to understand effects of El Nino. I am not a scientist but I have extensive weather experience having spent a lifetime on or near the ocean. If I may, allow me to give a quick tutorial.
First the difference of temperature between El Nino and La Nina is small. Only a few degrees C. Three degrees is a big one. Hardly noticeable to most folks without a thermometer. However the effects can be large because of the way the weather patterns can be affected. Jet streams can be shifted slightly bringing cold Arctic air to areas that might not of received it otherwise, for instance. A slight magnification of the amplitude of the pressure ridge could also shove a storm system on a different course bringing rain or snow to areas that might not receive it during normal conditions. Minor pressure changes can alter wind patters slightly causing profound environmental changes. Notice the climate induced New Jersey size “dead zone’ produced off the otherwise pristine Oregon and Washington coast. (Recent post on CP) Here in the NW , largely because we are close to the water, we tend to be a bit warmer with less snow pack because one degree temperature change can move the snow line quite a ways up the mountains. In addition the storm tracks tend to move further south so it is not unusual for California to get rain that in other years might of fallen in this area. East of the Cascades, only a hundred miles as the crow flies, we tend to get clearer air that is colder and even bring artic air down from the interior of BC. Compound those variables with the fact that the overall temperature is rising by a degree or so and we are in uncharted territory. As Joe mentioned early. The effects are very different in different parts of the nation as well as the world. Again one needs to be cognizant of the difference between “weather” and “climate”. On top of all that the further east you go the less effects Nino might have and be over powered by local anomalies, Lake effects snow in Buffalo comes to mind. Again weather and climate.
All of the above applies to a degree of cimate change in spades!
i think el nino can make warmer summers yes but during winter can also make temps swing more for some very cold air on average yes el’s are warmer so we should look forward to warmer temps as far as la nino’s les temp swing and more cooler temps that is what i say am i wrong????????
I live close to the Detroit area, and 1997-98 and 1998-99 seemed to be the last snowless years that we had. They were very warm winters for us. I remember it was dry and sunny most of the days during those winters, and few daylight hours below freezing. Since 2000 we’ve had lots of snow and it was freezing cold. I hope this El Nino is similar or warmer than 1997-99.