Comments on: NOAA says “El Niño arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10″ — and that means record temperatures are coming and this will be the hottest decade on record

By: Brian

Brian — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 06:12:20 +0000

I live close to the Detroit area, and 1997-98 and 1998-99 seemed to be the last snowless years that we had. They were very warm winters for us. I remember it was dry and sunny most of the days during those winters, and few daylight hours below freezing. Since 2000 we’ve had lots of snow and it was freezing cold. I hope this El Nino is similar or warmer than 1997-99.

By: Joe

Joe — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 19:34:01 +0000

i think el nino can make warmer summers yes but during winter can also make temps swing more for some very cold air on average yes el’s are warmer so we should look forward to warmer temps as far as la nino’s les temp swing and more cooler temps that is what i say am i wrong????????

By: Leif

Leif — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 23:45:07 +0000

dontquitdayjob and others trying to understand effects of El Nino. I am not a scientist but I have extensive weather experience having spent a lifetime on or near the ocean. If I may, allow me to give a quick tutorial.
First the difference of temperature between El Nino and La Nina is small. Only a few degrees C. Three degrees is a big one. Hardly noticeable to most folks without a thermometer. However the effects can be large because of the way the weather patterns can be affected. Jet streams can be shifted slightly bringing cold Arctic air to areas that might not of received it otherwise, for instance. A slight magnification of the amplitude of the pressure ridge could also shove a storm system on a different course bringing rain or snow to areas that might not receive it during normal conditions. Minor pressure changes can alter wind patters slightly causing profound environmental changes. Notice the climate induced New Jersey size “dead zone’ produced off the otherwise pristine Oregon and Washington coast. (Recent post on CP) Here in the NW , largely because we are close to the water, we tend to be a bit warmer with less snow pack because one degree temperature change can move the snow line quite a ways up the mountains. In addition the storm tracks tend to move further south so it is not unusual for California to get rain that in other years might of fallen in this area. East of the Cascades, only a hundred miles as the crow flies, we tend to get clearer air that is colder and even bring artic air down from the interior of BC. Compound those variables with the fact that the overall temperature is rising by a degree or so and we are in uncharted territory. As Joe mentioned early. The effects are very different in different parts of the nation as well as the world. Again one needs to be cognizant of the difference between “weather” and “climate”. On top of all that the further east you go the less effects Nino might have and be over powered by local anomalies, Lake effects snow in Buffalo comes to mind. Again weather and climate.
All of the above applies to a degree of cimate change in spades!

By: Chris Piper

Chris Piper — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 22:23:40 +0000

did anyone see the noaa winter forcast today? Can anyone tell me more about the NAO, and what it means. Thanks.

By: Brandon

Brandon — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 05:10:03 +0000

As a Skier in the Sierras and Rockies, bring El Nino on! It’ll mean Sierra Cement but there will be plenty of it!

Of course global warming is generally a bad thing.

By: Frosty Balls

Frosty Balls — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 20:43:36 +0000

El Nino?? yeah right. This is the coldest Summer and fall I’ve ever seen in the midwest. Something is seriously jacked up.

By: idunno

idunno — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 15:59:51 +0000

I just wonder about all of these record cold temps–New Zealand has massive snow/stranded motorists, record early school closing in Idaho, freeze warning in Texas and Oklahoma, earliest opening for ski resorts in the west and I’m freezing in the mid-atlantic dreaming about Indian summer. It seems like it’s cold all over, some warming is sounding pretty good right now.

[JR: We try to avoid what it "seems" like to people who follow websites that highlight spots of cold. We're experiencing record temps globally now.]

By: dontquitdayjob

dontquitdayjob — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 16:50:03 +0000

If we are forcasting a milder winter than how can we be seeing snow in the midwest in early OCTOBER! Expect a record setting cold and snowy winter!

By: Chris Piper

Chris Piper — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 22:25:09 +0000

I have been reading that accuweather is saying we are going to have a colder and snower winter in 2009 and 2010, then 2008-2009. Here in Rhode Island we had 53 inchs of snow last winter; well above normal. The nwa says that we a going to have a milder winter, due the El Nino.
Accuweather says they believe that the El Nino will weaken, and not be a major roll in the weather. The NWS says that the opposite will happen, and strenghten through the winter to a moderate El Nino; and the possability of a stong El Nino. First, why the two different predictions? I thought that El Nino meant a ‘warmer’ pattern. In RI, Mass., Conn, and Northern New England it has been a cold and snowy winter the last two years. PA and the Mid-Atlantic states have had two mild winters. From avaiable data, anyone here have a felling how this winter will shape up?

[JR: El Nino looks to be at most a moderate one. May last a while, though. It has different impacts in different parts of the country. I'd trust NWS more.]

By: nate rensland

nate rensland — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 06:55:08 +0000

on another note instead of cutting down tree after tree, replnish our forest replant, and outlaw timber cutting. Replace lumber with marijuana (not to smoke) but this plant acutally is a stronger than lumber and can be made into a number of products. i know the goverment would never do this but i thought i would throw it out there it would also replace oil and many many other products…… ask our new president http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ 2009/ 03/ 26/ open-for-questions-obama_n_178764.html?page=5&show_comment_id=22362565#comment_22362565