Comments on: Peaking Duck: Beijing’s Growing Appetite for Climate Action

By: Rockfish

Rockfish — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:29:11 +0000

Once again the US will end up looking the fool.

For all their bluster and “hard line” policies, China are already doing more than we are. (Rumors today of substantial feed-in tarrifs for utility scale solar)

I predict the US will not pass any climate change legislation before Copenhagen, if at all (the Republicans will scream “job killers” and the Dems will cower, as they always do) and we will forfeit any moral high ground we have in those negotiations.

[JR: There was never any possibility of the US passing climate legislation before Copenhagen -- nor do I think it is terribly important that we do. What is terribly important is that we pass it in the next 6 to 9 months. That remains perhaps a 50-50, but it won't be because "Dems will cower" -- the overwhelming majority of Dems will vote for the bill. If we don't pass the bill, it will be because the overwhelming majority of Rs cower in face of their rapid base.]

China, in fact, has a few more months to claim the moral high ground over US! Let’s not forget that the US is not the darling of the climate change world, and we could find ourselves seriously on the defensive by December.

By: ecostew

ecostew — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 21:42:36 +0000

Remember this 25% of fossil fuel use study:

http://www.abc.net.au/ science/ articles/ 2009/ 04/ 30/ 2556927.htm

By: Bill R

Bill R — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 21:07:19 +0000

It would be lousy climate/energy policy to rely on Peak Oil and Coal to cause the peak in China’s emissions, but I think that given that Peak Oil is now or within 5 years and the resulting disturbance to the global economy, and that Peak Coal is possibly sooner that one would think:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/29919 … I just have a hard time thinking that china’s emissions will be growing past 2020.

I searched “Peak Coal” on your site, Joe, and would be interested in your take on the more pessimistic studies that Heinberg and others are writing about coal at the moment.

By: ecostew

ecostew — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 21:04:36 +0000

An emissions figure: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/RNGS/AUG/CHINA.jpg

By: Sasparilla

Sasparilla — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 19:14:51 +0000

Just the like the US’s totally inadequate climate bill waiting on the US Senate to get the courage to pick up, this is just China’s opening steps in climate emissions reductions.

It won’t be good enough, but they will get the Chinese emissions ship turned around in the right direction (just like the US bill would for the US)…with a politically viable (for the time being) solution.

Then after 10 years or so of climate change crisis becoming more obvious we can hope real plans that can do the job will be politically viable and done – with the head start from these lame bills in process that will allow that option at that point.

By: ecostew

ecostew — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 18:09:16 +0000

From NewScientist on the same report:

If China adopts an “enhanced low carbon scenario” with very stringent policies, emissions could peak in 2030 and fall to 1.4 billion tonnes in 2050, equivalent to their 2005 level, the report says. This would be “difficult but doable”, says lead author Jiang Kejun.

By: Charles Siegel

Charles Siegel — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:40:55 +0000

If China’s emissions peak in 2030, it will be 2051 before they get back down to their current level (assuming a symmetrical curve, which is an optimistic assumption given China’s economic growth).

I am not cheered by the thought that China’s emissions in 2050 will be higher than they are now.