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	<title>Comments on: Must-read AP story:  Statisticians reject global cooling; Caldeira &#8212; &#8220;To talk about global cooling at the end of the hottest decade the planet has experienced in many thousands of years is ridiculous.&#8221;  Levitt &#8220;said he does not believe there is a cooling trend&#8221;!!</title>
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	<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/</link>
	<description>The Latest on Climate Science, Solutions, and Politics</description>
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		<title>By: Larry the Plumber</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/#comment-225272</link>
		<dc:creator>Larry the Plumber</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Dec 2009 11:08:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/?p=13244#comment-225272</guid>
		<description>Philip,

Is CO2 the presummed driver of this cooling trend, or can CO2 only act as a driver for AGW given the heat input to the earth&#039;s atmosphere and surface is always positive. The heat transfer must be affected in some way by the excess CO2, but to what degree? Is it also decreasing the amount of solar radiation input to the same degree it decreases heat transfer to space?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Philip,</p>
<p>Is CO2 the presummed driver of this cooling trend, or can CO2 only act as a driver for AGW given the heat input to the earth&#8217;s atmosphere and surface is always positive. The heat transfer must be affected in some way by the excess CO2, but to what degree? Is it also decreasing the amount of solar radiation input to the same degree it decreases heat transfer to space?</p>
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		<title>By: E. Philip Howrey</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/#comment-171385</link>
		<dc:creator>E. Philip Howrey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:01:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/?p=13244#comment-171385</guid>
		<description>&quot;Saying there&#039;s a downward trend since 1998 is not scientifically legitimate, said David Peterson, a retired Duke University statistics professor and one of those analyzing the numbers.&quot;  My analysis of NOAA and UAB data indicates that, by the same reasoning, saying there&#039;s an upward trend since 1998 is not scientifically legitimate either.  The linear trend coefficient is .005 (warming) with an se of .007 for the NOAA data for 1998-2008 and the trend coefficient is -.004 (cooling) with an se of .015 for the UAB data for 1998-2008.  In neither case is the coefficient significantly different from zero at the at the .01, .05, .10, or even .75 level of significance (p-value = .77).  The 95% confidence intervals for the linear trend coefficient for the two data sets are (-.011,.021) and (-.037,.029) both of which are consistent with warming or cooling or neither warming nor cooling.

The more interesting question, in my opinion, is whether there has been a statistically significant change in the (warming) trend since 1998 or 2005.  That is presumably the question of interest since it is undeniable, if the data are to be believed at all, that global temperature has declined since 2005 according to both the NOAA and UAB data sets.

E. Philip Howrey
Professor Emeritus Economics
Professor Emeritus Statistics
University of Michigan</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Saying there&#8217;s a downward trend since 1998 is not scientifically legitimate, said David Peterson, a retired Duke University statistics professor and one of those analyzing the numbers.&#8221;  My analysis of NOAA and UAB data indicates that, by the same reasoning, saying there&#8217;s an upward trend since 1998 is not scientifically legitimate either.  The linear trend coefficient is .005 (warming) with an se of .007 for the NOAA data for 1998-2008 and the trend coefficient is -.004 (cooling) with an se of .015 for the UAB data for 1998-2008.  In neither case is the coefficient significantly different from zero at the at the .01, .05, .10, or even .75 level of significance (p-value = .77).  The 95% confidence intervals for the linear trend coefficient for the two data sets are (-.011,.021) and (-.037,.029) both of which are consistent with warming or cooling or neither warming nor cooling.</p>
<p>The more interesting question, in my opinion, is whether there has been a statistically significant change in the (warming) trend since 1998 or 2005.  That is presumably the question of interest since it is undeniable, if the data are to be believed at all, that global temperature has declined since 2005 according to both the NOAA and UAB data sets.</p>
<p>E. Philip Howrey<br />
Professor Emeritus Economics<br />
Professor Emeritus Statistics<br />
University of Michigan</p>
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		<title>By: Richard Brenne</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/#comment-170957</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Brenne</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 06:33:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/?p=13244#comment-170957</guid>
		<description>Gail (#26):

That&#039;s a great metaphor.  Actually when I read Superfreakonomics I was so depressed I went out into our garage and idled our car for about 45 minutes before I realized we have a carport.

And my friend Laurence Doyle, a scientist at SETI (Search for Extraterrestial Intelligence - intelligently sought via radio signals, not unintelligent expectations of UFOs) said that if aliens could come to Anthro-Earth we&#039;d say &quot;Here we are!  Here we are!&quot; and they&#039;d instead study our trees, ignore us and leave.

Trees have had solar panels called leaves that are renewable for 400 million years while we&#039;re trying to develop them out of nonrenewable minerals.  So Gail, your love of trees and protection of them shows that you&#039;ve evolved to something higher than most of the rest of us, and I enjoy all your comments.  Obviously your girls who are going to excellent schools got their mother&#039;s intelligence.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gail (#26):</p>
<p>That&#8217;s a great metaphor.  Actually when I read Superfreakonomics I was so depressed I went out into our garage and idled our car for about 45 minutes before I realized we have a carport.</p>
<p>And my friend Laurence Doyle, a scientist at SETI (Search for Extraterrestial Intelligence &#8211; intelligently sought via radio signals, not unintelligent expectations of UFOs) said that if aliens could come to Anthro-Earth we&#8217;d say &#8220;Here we are!  Here we are!&#8221; and they&#8217;d instead study our trees, ignore us and leave.</p>
<p>Trees have had solar panels called leaves that are renewable for 400 million years while we&#8217;re trying to develop them out of nonrenewable minerals.  So Gail, your love of trees and protection of them shows that you&#8217;ve evolved to something higher than most of the rest of us, and I enjoy all your comments.  Obviously your girls who are going to excellent schools got their mother&#8217;s intelligence.</p>
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		<title>By: WAG</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/#comment-170839</link>
		<dc:creator>WAG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 04:06:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/?p=13244#comment-170839</guid>
		<description>The AP&#039;s finding also puts a hole in the denier argument that climate science is skewed by scientists&#039; &quot;bias&quot; - even if you strip out any mention of global warming, the conclusions are still the same.

http://akwag.blogspot.com/2009/10/blind-support-for-global-warming.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The AP&#8217;s finding also puts a hole in the denier argument that climate science is skewed by scientists&#8217; &#8220;bias&#8221; &#8211; even if you strip out any mention of global warming, the conclusions are still the same.</p>
<p><a href="http://akwag.blogspot.com/2009/10/blind-support-for-global-warming.html" rel="nofollow">http://akwag.blogspot.com/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>2009/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>10/<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>blind-support-for-global-warming.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: Richard Levangie</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/#comment-170286</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Levangie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:15:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/?p=13244#comment-170286</guid>
		<description>Richard Brenne wrote:

&lt;blockquote&gt;The University of Chicago is the home of Milton Friedman and his school of economics that says that if the price of anything gets high enough that encourages finding more of it and/or a substitute.

They’re typically saying that we’ll never run out of anything, ever.

This is because the unregulated Free Market is their god and they’re the high priests of this god, which has led us to where we are today.

So when fellow University of Chicago economists Levitt and Dubner subscribe to this belief system and twist facts to the worship of their god, it shouldn’t surprise us.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

For my detailed understanding of the Chicago School, I read &lt;em&gt;Shock Doctrine&lt;/em&gt; by Naomi Klein. It took me about nine months because I couldn&#039;t read more than a chapter at a time — it was so utterly devastating. (And this from a guy who can read a global warming book in a week). Friedman was a stupid, immoral man, and we&#039;ll be a century overcoming the worst of his flawed theories. 

I&#039;d recommend Shock Doctrine to everyone.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Richard Brenne wrote:</p>
<blockquote><p>The University of Chicago is the home of Milton Friedman and his school of economics that says that if the price of anything gets high enough that encourages finding more of it and/or a substitute.</p>
<p>They’re typically saying that we’ll never run out of anything, ever.</p>
<p>This is because the unregulated Free Market is their god and they’re the high priests of this god, which has led us to where we are today.</p>
<p>So when fellow University of Chicago economists Levitt and Dubner subscribe to this belief system and twist facts to the worship of their god, it shouldn’t surprise us.</p></blockquote>
<p>For my detailed understanding of the Chicago School, I read <em>Shock Doctrine</em> by Naomi Klein. It took me about nine months because I couldn&#8217;t read more than a chapter at a time — it was so utterly devastating. (And this from a guy who can read a global warming book in a week). Friedman was a stupid, immoral man, and we&#8217;ll be a century overcoming the worst of his flawed theories. </p>
<p>I&#8217;d recommend Shock Doctrine to everyone.</p>
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		<title>By: dhogaza</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/#comment-170267</link>
		<dc:creator>dhogaza</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:49:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/?p=13244#comment-170267</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;And this Levitt guy is really a scientist, in some university?!

How can this kind of clown be called some kind of scientist? Tell it!
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

He&#039;s an economist, not a scientist.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>And this Levitt guy is really a scientist, in some university?!</p>
<p>How can this kind of clown be called some kind of scientist? Tell it!
</p></blockquote>
<p>He&#8217;s an economist, not a scientist.</p>
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		<title>By: Bernie</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/#comment-170250</link>
		<dc:creator>Bernie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:35:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/?p=13244#comment-170250</guid>
		<description>&quot;Since statistics involves mathematics rather than physical science, I hardly think “instrumentation” is relevant. &quot;

lgcarey, I think you spent to long in Gail&#039;s garage.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Since statistics involves mathematics rather than physical science, I hardly think “instrumentation” is relevant. &#8221;</p>
<p>lgcarey, I think you spent to long in Gail&#8217;s garage.</p>
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		<title>By: Gail</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/#comment-170189</link>
		<dc:creator>Gail</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:52:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/?p=13244#comment-170189</guid>
		<description>Richard Brenne, terrific comment, I am going to send it to my favorite Ayn Rander.

My favorite less erudite metaphor - I think of the earth as a big garage with the doors closed.  We are all sitting in a car together, running the engine, getting sleepy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Richard Brenne, terrific comment, I am going to send it to my favorite Ayn Rander.</p>
<p>My favorite less erudite metaphor &#8211; I think of the earth as a big garage with the doors closed.  We are all sitting in a car together, running the engine, getting sleepy.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicole</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/#comment-170110</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicole</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 08:05:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/?p=13244#comment-170110</guid>
		<description>Thank you for this wonderful resource and keeping us posted on these latest happenings and conversations on the matter. 

I ask you to please check out my family, who have been working on energy efficient upgrades in their home NONSTOP over the past 3 months. I am very proud of them. You can vote for the Casanova family in a Texas Utilities contest for the Texas family who has put the most effort to save energy here : http://psc.gotxu.com/vote. It takes seconds and we&#039;d really appreciate it. They have already made it to top 3 in Texas! Thank you so much. 

Here is the NBC Dallas news story on the contest and my family if you are interested:http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/green/Power-Play-Could-Earn-Family-25K-64577297.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you for this wonderful resource and keeping us posted on these latest happenings and conversations on the matter. </p>
<p>I ask you to please check out my family, who have been working on energy efficient upgrades in their home NONSTOP over the past 3 months. I am very proud of them. You can vote for the Casanova family in a Texas Utilities contest for the Texas family who has put the most effort to save energy here : <a href="http://psc.gotxu.com/vote" rel="nofollow">http://psc.gotxu.com/vote</a>. It takes seconds and we&#8217;d really appreciate it. They have already made it to top 3 in Texas! Thank you so much. </p>
<p>Here is the NBC Dallas news story on the contest and my family if you are interested:http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/green/Power-Play-Could-Earn-Family-25K-64577297.html</p>
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		<title>By: jorleh</title>
		<link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/global-cooling-myth-statisticians-caldeira-superfreakonomics/#comment-170087</link>
		<dc:creator>jorleh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 06:23:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateprogress.org/?p=13244#comment-170087</guid>
		<description>Good work,Joe! And this Levitt guy is really a scientist, in some university?!

How can this kind of clown be called some kind of scientist? Tell it!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good work,Joe! And this Levitt guy is really a scientist, in some university?!</p>
<p>How can this kind of clown be called some kind of scientist? Tell it!</p>
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