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[As noted, GM and Toyota have soured on hydrogen fuel cell cars, and grown more optimistic about electric vehicles -- finally catching up with most of the rest of us.]

Further evidence that the action is in electric cars and the batteries that will energize them: General Electric has invested $4 million in Th!nk Global, and $20 million in A123. Business Week reports GE plugs into electric car investments. And Th!nk has debuted a larger concept car, which it has developed with an unnamed major automaker. Green Wombat has more info here.

Pretty soon it might be down to BMW and Honda advertising the hydrogen dream, with the California Air Resources Board acting as enabler. CARB staff is recommending lowering once again the required number of zero emission vehicles — this time by a mere 90%! Honda, the supposed H2 true believer, is actually given an incentive to produce fewer of its much touted Clarity FCV.

The Air Resources Board could probably find a way to lead by prodding early commercialization of battery ZEVs or plug-in hybrids, but instead it appears to be regulating itself into irrelevancy.

– Marc G. Plugs and Cars Blog

Financial Times Deutschland has a report on Th!nk Global. Putting a little flesh on the bones of previous reporting. 10,000 Think City electric cars in 2009. Parts manufacturing in Thailand and Turkey. The plan is to sell the car (€25,000) and lease the battery. Zebra batteries first. Online marketing and sales.

Think says it has battery supply contracts with three companies, and is moving into production. It plans to begin selling its cars in Norway, Denmark, Switzerland and the UK next year, with projected sales of 10,000 cars in 2009 and double that by 2011.

One question raised in the story is how Th!nk will fare as established carmakers bring electric cars to market.

With its modest volumes, it also remains unclear how Think will cope when bigger competitors such as Renault/Nissan and Daimler come to market with their own electric cars.

If Think can begin making thousands of cars per year in 2009, I suspect there won’t be much competition for years. Subaru’s snail’s pace production plans are far from ambitious. GM’s Vue and Volt plug-ins have no firm date to appear in showrooms. If Nissan or Mercedes are to make a serious electric offering in the same time frame, we’ll have to hear something soon.

– Marc G. Plugs and Cars Blog

CNNMoney.com reports on an online chat with GM CEO Rick Waggoner.

General Motors might not be able to hit its target to have its breakthrough electric-powered car the Chevrolet Volt in production by 2010…GM has already started to build advertising campaigns around the Volt, even though in the best-case scenario it is years away from production. It is seen as a way of trying to change public perceptions about the fuel efficiency and environmental responsibility of the U.S. automaker, which is more closely associated with large SUVs or pickup trucks.

Not the way to mark the 100th anniversary of the company. If GM wants to be believed, they need to do more than flap their lips, run hopeful ads and buy dinner for bloggers.

They ought to have used the 100th anniversary to deliver even a few real electric cars, something they actually know how to build. Hell, they could simply sell the few EV1s they still have running around. They could encourage museums and universities with donated, disabled EV1s to rebuild them as electric cars and allow them on the roads. They could make a preliminary, limited run Volt without waiting for “perfect” batteries – say something like the NiMH that worked quite well in the EV1 (and still do in our RAV4 EVs.)

Had GM taken any such actions, some of the continuing disbelief might be dissipated.

– Marc G. Plugs and Cars Blog

An Agence France Presse report has produced a small flurry of articles this past week, here and here, for example, that has a German company developing Lithium batteries that would be suitable for electric cars. Li-tec is said to be working in cooperation with Bosch and Volkswagen, which has heightened interest.

One can only hope, despite scant evidence, that the fierce grip of internal combustion on the German automakers might loosen. German Greens have bought into hydrogen hype as much as California regulators. BMW is pushing hydrogen gas into the most complicated engine ever and dousing the American airwaves and celebrities with this unavailable $500,000 diversion.

The country has admirably pushed renewable electricity generation, offering subsidies and incentives greater than most any other nation. Their insatiable appetite for solar panels has kept the world price high and supply low. But somehow, the increasingly low-carbon grid has not enticed either automakers to manufacture or policy makers to create incentives for grid connected cars. Do the Germans actually intend to make a green grid, only to throw away 75% of the energy to the losses involved in hydrogen production?

Of late, the French, Irish and Finns are creating feebate structures that could push electric cars. The Norwegians have a host of EV positive initiatives. But the Germans, for all their green reputation, remain laggards. The German government has opposed the strictest CO2 emission proposals in the EU, in order to protect their domestic, comparatively more polluting, auto industry.

Perhaps a German battery will propel interest. An electric VW, say a Plug-in UP!, might bring boomers back to the car that brought them to their first Earth Day rally.

– Marc G.

John Voelker has blogged from EVS23 for IEEE’s Spectrum, and he ain’t writing about fuel cell vehicles. Except to point out that Honda’s FCV rep actually got hissed as he dissed lithium batteries. The same lithium batteries without which Honda’s much heralded Clarity would chug along like a quiet 1960s era VW bug.

The FCX Clarity will be leased for $600 a month, starting next summer, to selected customers in Southern California. “That means,” said one bystander, “that Honda’s picking up the other $600,000 on each vehicle.” Which is as good a way as any to summarize the cost challenges of fuel-cell vehicles–even before looking at the infrastructure challenges.If one statement sums up this conference so far, it’s this one, overheard in the hallways: “It’s all about the plug-ins, stupid!”

– Marc G.

IEEE Tech Talk’s John Voelker’s report is titled EVS-23: A Surge of Energy for Electric Cars. It is a first comment on the palpable difference being experienced at this year’s Electric Vehicle Symposium (EVS23), the electric drive industry trade show.

An astounding 450 people attended Sunday’s plug-in hybrid workshop. A member of congress, for the first time, spoke from the floor about promoting electric vehicles through federal legislation. Five major automakers have expensive displays. Voelker writes:

A year ago, the Chevrolet Volt was unknown……The demand for plug-in hybrids has exploded…..grumbled the City of Vancouver’s Brian Beck, “I’m ready to change the building code to require electric plugs throughout parking garages, but automakers tell me I can’t get their plug-in prototypes…

Still no plug-in hybrids or electric cars in showrooms, but things are looking up.

– Marc G.

London could soon replace California as the electric car capital of the world. Thanks in large part to Mayor “Red Ken” Livingstone, who enacted London’s much criticized congestion charge policy in 2003.

The policy, which exempts electric cars from hefty daily taxation, is resulting in increasingly significant vehicle choices for English consumers. India’s Reva was first into the market with the G-Wiz. The French Mega City appeared next from NICE (No Internal Combustion Engine). Sakura Battery Co is offering a line of EVs, including the Italian Maranello4 microcar. Despite being low-speed vehicles about which safety concerns have been raised, they have months long waiting lists. Limited ranged, lead-acid battery based cars, they have nonetheless proven the demand of even less than perfect electric vehicles.

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The op-ed in the November 19th LA Times (We Need Voltswagens in the print edition; Bring back the electric car online) deserves attention from the public and state policy makers. Sherry Boschert, author of Plug-in Hybrids, is publicly posing the stark question as it needs to be asked: Will the California Air Resources Board (CARB) push for cars capable of zero-emission driving for today’s consumers using available, affordable, tested battery technology or will they support mere research programs even proponents say won’t be marketable for a generation.

On the ground at the LA Auto Show–and on the air (Honda here and BMW here)–automakers tout hydrogen & fuel cell vehicles disingenuously as “ready for the world when the world is ready.” Behind the scenes they lobby to lower the numbers of these million-dollar babies they must produce to meet their zero emission vehicle obligations. As Martin Zimmerman of the LA Times recently wrote in an otherwise gushing review of the Toyota FCHV recently, “Maybe, as some critics like to say, hydrogen is the fuel of the future and always will be.”

It’s past time the public, environmental organizations and policy makers got hip to the automaker con game and all got on the same page advocating plug-in cars. I look forward to CARB’s response.

More posts by Marc G. can be found at Plugs and Cars.

Related Climate Progress posts:

• Dream of hydrogen car goes down in flames
• Climate Progress Dehypes Hydrogen Again
• The Car of the Future: Plug-in Hybrids
• The Hype About Hydrogen: Fact and Fiction in the Race to Save the Climate

Required reading: Bill Moore’s EVWorld review and Martin Zimmerman’s LA Times piece about their test drives of the Toyota Plug-in Prius and the hydrogen fuel cell Highlander FCHV.

Paradox 1 – Soot: There’s an apparent emissions paradox with plug-in hybrids (PHEV): Driving longer distances on battery power means more cold starts as the internal combustion engine (ICE) stops and starts up again after the batteries deplete. Cold starts mean more pollution. The catalytic converter that keeps the ICE from being a gross polluter in conventional cars and hybrids however, isn’t kept warm by the continual embrace of an ever-churning engine in a hybrid with all-electric range. This catch-22 – you need the polluting engine running to keep the emissions mitigation running – has regulators including the California Air Resources Board (ARB) frowning upon PHEV conversions. It also spreads doubt about the enviro bona fides of plug-ins. Third party converters have spent time and resources tweaking their plug-in hybrids to meet ARB testing written with gasoline-only hybrids in mind.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to offer solutions. A supplemental electric heater comes right to mind. But you have to want to solve the problem. Third-party and DIY converters can’t muck with every system on a car. They are busy proving, despite automaker resistance, that the plug-in hybrid concept is worth pursuing. And these advocates have successfully prodded Toyota to dangle a concept PHEV before our eyes.

The automakers, including Toyota, that are not interested in rushing to market with plug-in cars never tired of suggesting that conventional gasoline-only hybrids are cleaner than plug-ins. Yet according to Bill Moore’s report in EVWorld on Toyota’s own PHEV Prius, Toyota solved the cold start dilemma with “a vacuum bottle of sorts on the Prius that stores a heated fluid for up to three days and is used to pre-warm the converter, thus reducing cold start emissions.” (UPDATE: Felix Kramer of Calcars informs me that the vacuum bottle is standard on 2004-2008 Prius.)

Toyota undoubtedly was testing this and perhaps other solutions even as they toyed with CARB’s emissions sensitivities to retard regulators’ interest in plug-ins. After all the system gaming of the ZEV mandate over the years, it is past time for CARB to recognize an automaker ploy to delay the zero-emission possibilities of plug-in options for what it is. The commonsense truth that emissions decrease with greater electric drive capability has been willfully confused for years now by automakers. CARB ought to tap into some of its bottomless reservoir of technological optimism applied to hydrogen and fuel cells when considering obstacles to plug-ins.

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Plug-in hybrids and electric cars will, I believe, be one of the major solutions to our climate and oil problems — and deserve dedicated attention.

So Climate Progress is happy to introduce Marc Geller, who blogs at Plugs and Cars. He is on the Board of Directors of the Electric Auto Association. He co-founded DontCrush.com and Plug In America. Both of us appeared in the film Who Killed the Electric Car. His full bio is here. Welcome, Marc!

The IEEE Spectrum Magazine for November 07 touts on its cover “Battery or Fuel-Cell Cars? A California Cabal Will Decide.” Interesting choice of headlines. Surely a strong argument can be made that something approaching a cabal turned a practical electric-cars-on-the-road mandate into a research and development program for hydrogen fuel cells vehicles.

Carmakers are desirous of delaying the inevitable but problematic move to electric drive. Oil companies shut out of electric markets are exploring biofuels and hydrogen as potential markets they could control. Academics awash in government and corporate grants analyse and research biofuels and hydrogen. The problem with electric is it is here now. Proven, ready to market. No significant need for research. Batteries could always use a nudge, but the 100+ mile battery has existed for over a decade. Price needs to come down by a factor of two at most, not a factor of 100. Economies of scale, baby!

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