Climate Progress: An insider's view of climate science, politics, and solutions

Global warming causes 300,000 deaths a year, says Kofi Annan thinktank

Climate change is already responsible for 300,000 deaths a year and is affecting 300m people, according to the first comprehensive study of the human impact of global warming.

It projects that increasingly severe heat waves, floods, storms and forest fires will be responsible for as many as 500,000 deaths a year by 2030, making it the greatest humanitarian challenge the world faces.

Economic losses due to climate change today amount to more than $125bn a year — more than the all present world aid. The report comes from former UN secretary general Kofi Annan’s thinktank, the Global Humanitarian Forum. By 2030, the report says, climate change could cost $600bn a year….

Civil unrest may also increase because of weather-related events, the report says: “Four billion people are vulnerable now and 500m are now at extreme risk. Weather-related disasters … bring hunger, disease, poverty and lost livelihoods. They pose a threat to social and political stability”.

If emissions are not brought under control, within 25 years, the report states:

• 310m more people will suffer adverse health consequences related to temperature increases

• 20m more people will fall into poverty

• 75m extra people will be displaced by climate change.

Climate change is expected to have the most severe impact on water supplies . “Shortages in future are likely to threaten food production, reduce sanitation, hinder economic development and damage ecosystems. It causes more violent swings between floods and droughts. Hundreds of millions of people are expected to become water stressed by climate change by the 2030. “.

The study says it is impossible to be certain who will be displaced by 2030, but that tens of millions of people “will be driven from their homelands by weather disasters or gradual environmental degradation. The problem is most severe in Africa, Bangladesh, Egypt, coastal zones and forest areas.”

See also “Memorial Day, 2029” and The Lancet’s landmark Health Commission: “Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century”

Global warming must stay below 2C or world faces ruin, scientists declare

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Climate change and peak oil mean nothing to the blinkered, bloated oil behemoth.

Exxon Mobil Says Transition From fossil fuel Is Century Away

Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest refiner, said the transition away from oil-derived fuels is probably 100 years away.

Petroleum-based fuels including gasoline and diesel, as well as hydrocarbons such as coal and natural gas, will remain the dominant sources of energy for factories, offices, homes and cars for decades because there are no viable alternatives, Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson told reporters today after Exxon Mobil’s annual shareholders meeting in Dallas.

No surprise that the oil giant spends bupkis on renewable energy — and that, as a different article reports, “Shareholders of Exxon Mobil rejected proposals on Wednesday to prohibit its chief executive from serving as chairman and to increase spending on renewable fuel.”

And here’s another non-shocker.  Tillerson says:

“If we’re going to place a price on carbon, let’s do that in the most efficient way. A carbon tax is more efficient than a tax that’s applied by way of a cap-and-trade mechanism.”

Carbon politics makes strange bedfellows!  see Nobelist Krugman strongly endorses Waxman-Markey: “The claim that carbon taxes are better than cap and trade is, in my view, just wrong.”

And here’s yet another non-shocker from the leading funder of climate denial advocacy over the past decade:

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GE eyes $1.5 billion in cleantech research by 2010

General Electric Co aims to boost its investment in clean-tech research and development to $1.5 billion a year by 2010, the largest U.S. conglomerate said on Wednesday in its annual “Ecomagination” report.

The maker of products ranging from electricity-producing wind turbines to energy-efficient compact-fluorescent lights, wants to grow green-business revenues to what it called a “stretch” target of $25 billion next year, up from $17 billion in 2008 and $6 billion in 2004….

GE said it expects stimulus spending in the United States, China and elsewhere around the globe to create about $400 billion of new demand for green technologies and clean-energy products, including wind turbines and solar panels.

The company earlier this month said it was building a plant near Albany, New York to build a new generation of high-capacity batteries that would power its upcoming hybrid railroad locomotive. Last month, it said it was working with Florida utility company FPL Group on the roll out of a “smart grid” system intended to encourage homeowners to lower their electricity consumption during peak demand times.

Global CEOs back greenhouse gas cuts, carbon caps

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Government to embrace ‘Green New Deal’

The [Japanese] government will promote “Green New Deal” policies to expand the nation’s markets related to environmental conservation and build a society where environmental policies will not hamper economic growth, according to a draft of the 2009 white paper on the environment.

The annual report on the environment, recycling society and biodiversity, penned by the Environment Ministry, will call for such policies as the promotion of environmentally friendly consumer appliances for replacement demand. The Cabinet is set to approve the paper June 2.

The Green New Deal strategy, officially unveiled by Environment Minister Tetsuo Saito on April 20, is designed to expand Japan’s environment-linked market 1.7-fold from the 2006 level to ¥120 trillion by 2020 and double employment in the market to 2.8 million.

In one of the main features of the new policy, the government will provide interest of up to 3 percent on loans to be taken out by businesses for introducing natural energy and equipment with low carbon dioxide emissions…..

The paper also refers to Prime Minister Taro Aso’s pledge in early April to boost Japan’s solar power output capacity 20-fold by 2020.

[Note:  If anyone can find this white paper, especially an English-language version, please post the link.]

Russian Uranium Sale to U.S. Is Planned

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In case anyone thought the hard part was over in the House, I’m excerpting at length this analysis from E&E News.  Remember, most members outside of Energy and Commerce don’t think a lot about global warming, don’t know a lot about cap-and-trade, and this bill is as complicated as the Clean Air Act or Clean Water Act, except that it doesn’t deal with directly cleaning up dirty air and water whose harm to constituents are obvious to any member.

Energy and Commerce ‘emissaries’ a key to House floor success

Thirty-three members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee gained a new title last night: global warming ambassadors.

In voting to adopt comprehensive legislation to cap U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, the 32 Democrats and one Republican now embark on the difficult task of convincing their fellow House colleagues to support sweeping new environmental legislation in tight economic times.

“We really need to be emissaries to the caucus, talking to them about how we were able to find some good common ground, and how it’s a good bill,” said Rep. Diane DeGette, a Democrat from Denver who said she would focus in the coming months on her fellow Western and urban lawmakers.

Rep. Mike Doyle, a Democrat who represents Pittsburgh, has already gotten started, albeit in a very subtle way. He brought up the climate bill over breakfast yesterday with a wavering lawmaker from the South.

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Google Rolls Out Home Energy Software

Google’s initiative to allow people to monitor their energy use on their computers took a step forward on Wednesday, as the company announced partnerships with eight electric utilities that will be the first to use its “Power Meter.”

Essentially, the secure software gadget will interact with the intelligent metering devices currently being installed by utilities for their customers. The software will “show consumers their home energy information almost in real time, right on their computer,” the company says.

Googlers testing the device, which includes a graphic-rich, Web-based interface, have reported learning which appliances cause the largest spike in home energy use — causing them to make changes like ensuring that an energy-intensive dishwasher or washing machine is fully loaded.

“One of my colleagues learned that her pool pump had been operating for years,” said Dan Reicher, the head of climate change programs at Google.org, with whom I spoke last month….

Google cites studies that suggest consumers could cut their electricity bills by 5 percent to 15 percent if they had access to information about how much electricity they are consuming.

Existential question:  Would such savings be energy efficiency — or conservation?

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Climate Bill Could Be a $750 Billion Boon for Consumers, Study Finds

Opponents of climate legislation paint efforts to reduce carbon emissions as “cap and tax” policy, but a new analysis of the current House proposal to curb greenhouse gas emissions finds that consumers would receive around $750 billion in direct and indirect handouts and subsidies through 2030 to offset the higher energy costs.

I am a big fan of the work of the group behind this analysis, Point Carbon, a source of timely information on the international carbon market — and the best place to find the current price of a CO2 in the European market.

Point Carbon, a market analysis firm, has estimated that the total value of the allowances given out by the government would amount to $1.5 trillion between 2012 and 2030, assuming carbon prices would rise from $13 per ton in 2013 to $22 per ton.

Point Carbon estimates about half the allowances would go toward consumer protection.

The House bill seeks to avoid the pitfall faced by Europe, where regulators essentially gave the carbon allowances free to power producers who pocketed the windfall, but did not ease costs on consumers.

In Point Carbon’s projections, investments to clean energy would total $188 billion, forest protection and adaptation would get $124 billion.

Revised House bill carries smaller price tag — EPA

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Oxygen drawn from the air reacts within the porous carbon to release the electrical charge in this lithium-air battery.

Air-fueled Battery Could Last Up To 10 Times Longer: Ground-breaking Technology For Electric Cars

A new type of air-fuelled battery could give up to ten times the energy storage of designs currently available.

This step-change in capacity could pave the way for a new generation of electric cars, mobile phones and laptops.

The research work, funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), is being led by researchers at the University of St Andrews with partners at Strathclyde and Newcastle.

The new design has the potential to improve the performance of portable electronic products and give a major boost to the renewable energy industry. The batteries will enable a constant electrical output from sources such as wind or solar, which stop generating when the weather changes or night falls….

The STAIR (St Andrews Air) cell should be cheaper than today’s
rechargeables, too. The new component is made of porous carbon, which
is far less expensive than the lithium cobalt oxide it replaces.

Original press release here.

Complaints from left and right as House markup nears

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Carbon capture schemes an expensive step into the unknown

This article, from the Australian Sydney Morning Herald, illustrates precisely why betting on a carbon capture scheme to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is a recipe for disaster. The nonexistent technology must be developed, tested, and deployed on a large scale very rapidly. No one knows what it will cost or even if it is possible, making CCS the longest of long shots on which to pin humanity’s hopes.  See also “Is coal with carbon capture and storage a core climate solution?“

The [Australian] Federal Government will spend $2 billion to build “industrial-scale” carbon capture and storage projects in Australia.

You would be better off just burying the money, from an environmental point of view, because many doubt the CCS technology will work. The best proponents can say is, it has to. But if it doesn’t, the money is worse than wasted, because the spending will have exacerbated the climate problem by justifying construction of new coal-fired power stations that burn for another 30 to 40 years.

The public could bear the ultimate liability if the technology fails, too, because the Offshore Petroleum and Greenhouse Gas Storage Act — the world’s most comprehensive, according to the Government, when it was passed last November — nicely shifts long-term liability (beyond 15 years) onto the Commonwealth.

I’m afraid it is a near certainty that the US public would have to swallow all of the liability associated with carbon capture and storage, too, in the unlikely event it becomes commonplace in this country.  After all, the public has taken on most of the liability associated with nuclear power, and it has far riskier outcomes see “How much of a subsidy is the Price-Anderson Nuclear Industry Indemnity Act?“).

The story continues:

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Climate science warns that a permanent Dust Bowl is in store for the U.S. southwest — and many other parts of the world — post-2050 on our current emissions path (see USGS stunner: SW faces “permanent drying” by 2050 and NOAA stunner:  SW faces permanent Dust Bowls).  Turns out we’re already starting to see the shape of things to come.

Climate change, water shortages conspire to create 21st century Dust Bowl

Dust storms accelerated by a warming climate have covered the Rocky Mountains with dirt whose heat-trapping properties have caused snowpacks to melt weeks earlier than normal, worrying officials in Colorado about drastic water shortages by late summer.

Snowpacks from the San Juan Mountains to the Front Range have either completely melted or will be gone within the next two weeks, said Tom Painter, director of the Snow Optics Laboratory at the University of Utah and a leading expert on snowmelt.

The rapid melting is linked to a spate of intense dust storms that kick up dirt and sand that in turn are deposited on snow-topped mountains. The dust darkens the snow, allowing the surface to absorb more heat from the sun. This warms the snow — and the air above it — significantly, studies show.

Search for GOP votes starts (and ends?) with Bono Mack

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Solar Hot Water for Toronto Homeowners

Solar Thermal comes to Canada (!), and guess who’s selling them the solar panels: not us.

In an innovative joint venture, Canadian natural gas giant Enbridge Gas Distribution has teamed up with green electricity marketer Bullfrog Power and the City of Toronto to promote solar thermal systems that promise to slash residential hot water heating costs by as much as 60 percent, or about $260 per year.

Under the program, announced Tuesday, London-based EnerWorks will supply the panels, which are certified for year-round use.

Homeowners can qualify for federal and provincial rebates to offset half of the $7,000-$10,000 capital outlay. Enbridge has anted up a $400,000 grant to further reduce costs for some residents.

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Drought and floods cut rice harvest back 95%!

Australia continues to suffer under the effects of climate change as a food shortages are added to its ever increasing list of woes (see also “Australia today offers horrific glimpse of U.S. Southwest, much of planet, post-2040, if we don’t slash emissions soon” and “Australia faces collapse as climate change kicks in”).

The rice harvest has been ravaged by both drought and flooding, with the NSW Riverina expected to deliver just 5 per cent of its normal output.

About 65,000 tonnes are expected to be harvested this year in the nation’s rice growing heartland – down from 1.2 million tonnes in a typical year – while trial crops in northeast NSW have been destroyed by heavy rainfall. Mike Hedditch, from the ricegrower-owned company SunRice, said so far 56,000 tonnes of paddy had come in.

‘We expect harvest to wrap up with receives of around 65,000 tonnes,’ he said.

Early forecasts for a 75,000-tonne crop in the Riverina were not realized, after a heat wave in February damaged flowering.

In German Suburb, Life Goes On Without Cars
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As a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, this “cash for clunkers” deal is probably among the least cost-effective uses of federal dollars one could imagine.  That doesn’t mean it won’t have benefits to the auto industry, but nobody should sell it as a particularly strategic GHG reducer.

‘Clunkers’ deal stirs questions about climate benefits

A deal reached by House lawmakers this week on a “cash for clunkers” provision for a proposed energy and climate bill was initially hailed as a win-win for often-competing interests of the auto industry and environmentalists.

But not everyone believes the compromise gives environmental concerns equal weight with industry needs.

The clunkers provision would pay Americans who scrap their older cars and trucks for newer, more fuel-efficient vehicles. Its supporters say it would spur car sales to help the battered U.S. auto industry while reducing the use of transportation fuel.

At first glance, the plan looks “green.” By increasing the overall fuel economy of U.S. vehicles, the program cuts fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions that accompany it. But environmentalists and some academics are warning that looking only at fuel economy fails to paint a full picture of automotive emissions.

The program, they say, fails to have a net environmental benefit unless the fuel-saving gains are greater than the environmental cost of building the new cars and trucks in the first place.

Frankly, the biggest problem with the program from a GHG point of view is that you are paying large amounts of money for relatively small incremental gains.  And that’s without even considering the fact that clunkers don’t tend to be driven as much as new cars — or, as the article notes, the environmental impact of building the new cars and trucks.

The rest of this piece is reprinted at the end of this post.

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Warming – it’s a health hazard

Global warming won’t just affect our planet – it will also affect our health, says Ainslie Macgibbon.

“Climate change will affect, in profoundly adverse ways, some of the most fundamental determinants of health: food, air, water,” the director-general of the World Health Organisation, Margaret Chan, says.

It is an alarming scenario – and one that hit home in Australia this year after the deadly heatwave and bushfires in Victoria and the devastating floods in Queensland.

There were 374 more deaths than what would normally be expected during the January heatwave in Victoria, according to an assessment released by the Victorian Chief Medical Officer. The deaths represented a 62 per cent increase in total mortality from all causes.

Read the whole piece for a discussion of

• Increase in FOOD AND WATER pathogens
• Increase in MENTAL HEALTH problems and PTSD
• Increase in HEAT WAVE deaths
• Increase in MOSQUITO-BORNE DISEASE
• Increase in OZONE and AIR QUALITY problems

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Top Story

It looks like Ford is finally entering the real world, one where global warming and, even sooner, peak oil, will drive consumer decisions about automotive purchases.  Indeed, as soon as the global economic recession is over, oil prices will quickly rise back above $100 a barrel.  They will almost certainly reach record levels in the next decade.  For gasoline to be significantly below $5 a gallon by 2020 would take a miracle — or rather 6 miracles see “Science/IEA: World oil crunch looming? Not if we can find six Saudi Arabias!” and “IEA says oil will peak in 2020“).  See also “Merrill: Non-OPEC production has likely peaked, oil output could fall by 30 million bpd by 2015“).

The future belongs to car companies that make profitable, well-designed fuel-efficient cars, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and pure electrics, which seems to be a core element of Ford’s trategic plan for survival and revival (see “Whose bailout plan is best: Ford drops hydrogen while GM remains confused about ethanol“).  Today’s news is evidence that they are putting their plan into motion:

Ford Truck Plant to Build Electric Cars

The Ford Motor Company is investing $550 million to turn a factory that was dedicated to making large and fuel-hungry sport utility vehicles into a modern and scalable small-car plant that will eventually produce an all-electric version of the Focus.

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Top Stories

President Obama was correct when he declared two weeks ago that the choice we face in addressing climate change is “between prosperity and decline.” The competitive advantage we stand to gain by “becoming the world’s leading exporter of clean energy” is incalculable. But, as China’s rapid expansion of its solar and wind industries shows, the competition is fierce and we’re already behind the curve. Chinese officials said yesterday that the giant nation will far exceed its 2020 wind and solar targets. They expect to more than triple their wind capacity goal, resulting in 100 gigawatts of wind power by 2020, and surpass by five to tenfold the target set for solar. These are sobering numbers. Obama said, “The nation that leads the world in creating new energy sources will be the nation that leads the 21st-century global economy.” We have some serious catching up to do.

China triples wind power capacity goal

China has more than tripled its target for wind power capacity to 100 gigawatts by 2020, likely making it the world’s fastest growing market for wind energy technology, state press said yesterday.

China is aiming for an annual wind power growth rate of 20 percent for the foreseeable future, Feng Junshi, an official with the National Energy Administration, told a Beijing conference, according to the China Daily.

China solar set to be 5 times 2020 target

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Can Clean Energy Revive Manufacturing?

The manufacturing sector in the United States continues to shrink — but could the renewable-energy rush spur a manufacturing revival?

A number of solar-panel factories are coming online in the United States… Makers of wind turbines are also establishing factories in the heartland, where the factories’ proximity to wind farms on the Plains slashes the cost of shipping the giant machines from Europe.

[M]any renewable-equipment manufacturers want to set up operations in the United States because they perceive it to be the largest market for the technologies in the years ahead. (Tax credits in the stimulus package for domestic production of renewable-energy equipment also help.) A key factor in bringing SolarWorld to Oregon, said Mr. Klebensberger, was the work force — and especially Oregonians’ “belief in change and how important renewables are.” Proximity to a cluster of semiconductor factories, some of whose workers SolarWorld has recently poached, was another attraction.

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Top Stories

Here Comes the Sun

Buoyed by the potential promise of a green economy, Mr. Klebensberger, who heads the American branch of SolarWorld AG, a company based in Bonn, Germany, is ramping up production of solar cells in a retrofitted factory that had its grand opening last October — in the teeth of the financial crisis.

SolarWorld’s plant here [Hillsboro, OR], which makes enough cells to fit 1,700 solar panels a day, is the biggest of its kind in the United States….

THE United States lost its status as the world’s leading solar manufacturer in the 1990s as interest surged elsewhere. Now it makes little more than 5 percent of solar panels worldwide….

Thank you Reagan, Gingrich and other conservatives for gutting our leadership in what is certain to be one of the major job-creating industries of the century! (see “U.S. left in dust, having invented solar PV technology” and “Why Anti-wind McCain had to deliver his climate remarks at a foreign wind company” and”Why other countries kick our butt on clean energy: A primer“)

Even as some of the weaker solar companies resort to layoffs, a number of big names — including Schott, First Solar, SunPower and Sharp — are building, expanding or looking to build manufacturing plants in the United States. Sanyo, the Japanese electronics company, is building a solar wafer factory in Salem, Oregon’s capital, that is to begin production this fall.

Thank you stimulus, progressive Congress, and team Obama!  (see “First quarter cleantech VC funding still hits $1 billion — green stimulus funds soar to $400 billion“).

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