Climate Progress: An insider's view of climate science, politics, and solutions

The details of the bipartisan climate and clean energy bill are starting to leak out (see here).

Twenty environmental, climate and progressive groups — including the one I work for — have issued a statement “in reaction to a late Thursday meeting with Senator John Kerry”:

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UPDATE:  More details at the end.

Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), John Kerry (D-MA), and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) “shared an eight-page outline of their draft legislation that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next four decades, including provisions to limit business costs while ramping up domestic production of oil, gas and nuclear power.”

E&E News PM (subs. req’d) reported the following details of the bill, which leaked out from the Senators “closed-door meeting with major industry groups they are courting”:

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Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) wants to pay for nuclear loan guarantees and clean energy incentives in exchange for one of our most precious natural treasures, the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.  Kristen Miller of the Alaska Wilderness League has the story:
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Speaking at a conference on the future of America’s economic competitiveness, green jobs leader Van Jones called for a “robust policy discussion” on equity, inclusion, and fairness in the emerging green economy.  Brad Johnson of Wonk Room has the story — and the must-see video — in this repost.

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Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has decided to hold the fate of her state, nation, and world hostage to drilling in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, as explained by guest blogger Daniel J. Weiss, CAPAF’s Director of Climate Strategy.

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Vote Vets launches its toughest ad to date on behalf of bipartisan action on climate and clean energy:

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Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA) is “sick” of the “insider baseball crap” dominating the Senate debate over global warming and energy reform. In an interview with Grist, the first-term congressman stated in no uncertain terms that the country is at risk from global warming and our economy is at risk of losing the clean energy race. Like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Perriello has not one lick of sympathy for those in the Senate who deny these threats:

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UPDATE:  Since many commenters seem confused about my position on cap-and-dividend (CAD) and the Cantwell-Collins (C-C) version of CAD, I elaborate below.

Senators to propose abandoning cap-and-trade

Three key senators are engaged in a radical behind-the-scenes overhaul of climate legislation, preparing to jettison the broad “cap-and-trade” approach that has defined the legislative debate for close to a decade.

That’s the lead WashPost story today.  My sources say the final proposal is not fully baked, so this scoop is closer to a “leaked” trial balloon [shaped like a flag, of course, to put all my metaphors in the mixing bowl].  Indeed it’s not even clear whether Graham, Kerry, Lieberman will float a final bill or something closer to a discussion draft.

Frankly, I’m not sure they have the winning proposal yet, but here’s what’s out there:

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Senate Majority Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has instructed Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) to produce a revamped climate bill as soon as possible, according to sources, a task Kerry intends to accomplish within two weeks.

So the Washington Post reported at 7:37 pm ET, at their cleverly (ironically?) named Post Carbon site.

Looks like Reid wants a vote on this — as he’s been saying all along (see Senate Majority Leader expects to pass bipartisan energy and climate bill this spring: It “may be the most important policy we will ever pass.”)  Here’s more:

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Today’s guest blogger is Daniel J. Weiss, Senior Fellow and Director of Climate Strategy at the Center for American Progress.

Big oil, the Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, and senators including Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) are whipping up hysterical fears that the Environmental Protection Agency will use its existing authority under the Clean Air Act to immediately restrict global warming pollution for even the smallest of emitters.  For instance, NAM President John Engler makes the ridiculous claim that “If EPA moves forward and begins regulating stationary sources, it will open the door for them to regulate everything from industrial facilities to farms to even American homes.”

In fact, EPA’s efforts are simply following the law of the land established by the  Supreme Court decision in Massachusetts v. EPA.

To calm the hysteria, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson sent a letter to eight Democratic senators assuring them that EPA will pursue a very deliberative process for establishing limits on global warming pollution from the largest polluters first, which would leave ample time for Congress to establish a more comprehensive pollution reduction program before EPA standards take effect.

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I continue to believe strongly that if we want to compete with the Chinese and the Indians and Europe when it comes to clean energy, unless you price carbon, you don’t send the right signals to the marketplace. I hear that from the utilities—Jim Rogers at Duke Energy and John Rowe from Exelon—and from industry leaders like Dow Chemical, GE, and others. It’s a mainstream idea.

It’s tempting to believe that a robust energy-only bill like we’ve passed out of the Energy Committee would reduce our carbon emissions, but based on all the scientific analysis I’ve seen, it wouldn’t. It would drive some innovation; it would send resources into research and development; it would improve our capacity to expand our transmission system. But it wouldn’t drive down carbon emissions, and for that reason I’m not willing at this point to give up on a price on carbon.

This interview of Sen. Udall by David Roberts was first posted at Grist.org.

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Anti-science ideologues have increasingly made opposition to bipartisan action on global warming a litmus test for Republicans seeking national office (see “Honey, I shrunk the GOP, Part 1: Conservatives vow to purge all members who support clean energy or science-based policy” and ”Part 3: RNC Chair Steele withdraws support for Rep. Kirk over his vote on climate and clean energy bill“).  Apparently this litmus test doesn’t just include embracing ideological positions on policy, but also on science.

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John Podesta has “hope,” but certainly not confidence, that Congress can pass a comprehensive climate and energy bill by this spring, a target date set by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

National Journal interviewed the CEO of the Center for American Progress on climate last week.  Podesta said it’s crucial to cut GHG emissions by the amount the President agreed to in the Copenhagen Accord:  17% below 2005 levels by 2020.   Edited excerpts of the interview follow:

NJ: Do you have confidence Congress can pass a comprehensive climate and energy bill this spring?

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Energy Secretary Steven Chu said Saturday that major Capitol Hill renewable electricity proposals would not prompt additional generation from sources like wind and solar power beyond the increases expected under existing programs.

The Hill report is not really big news.  I wrote back in May that EIA projects wind at 5% of U.S. electricity in 2012, all renewables at 14%, thanks to Obama stimulus! Now can we get a stronger renewable standard?

The story makes it doubly clear how pointless an “energy-only” bill would be:

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Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh will not seek re-election this year, a decision that hands Republicans a prime pickup opportunity in the middle of the country.

“After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so by serving in Congress has waned,” Bayh will say.

As I said when Sen. Dorgan (D-ND) announced in January he would retire, what’s bad news for the Dems in the longer term could be good news for the climate bill in the short term.

Nate Silver had given Bayh a “Probability of Yes” vote of 46%, but recently, Bayh has been sounding much more squeamish, as in this E&E Daily interview (subs. req’d) a few weeks ago:

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This is a guest post by Daniel J. Weiss, Senior Fellow at American Progress.

Climate progress auteur Dr. Joseph Romm recently noted the Earth is stuck in a “Groundhog Decade…where it’s always the hottest decade on record.”  Temperature data from NOAA demonstrates that the ‘00’s were warmer than the ‘90’s, which were warmer than the ‘80’s, and so on.  The data points in one direction: the Earth continues to warm.

Analogously, public opinion data on global warming also points in one direction:  Americans support investments in clean energy, and want action to reduce global warming pollution.  Poll after poll finds majorities support these measures, despite the worst economy in eighty years, and $100 million and growing of big oil and coal advocacy to defeat clean energy and global warming legislation.

Two just-released polls reiterate public support for clean energy and global warming pollution reductions.   One is a nationwide poll by Yale University and George Mason University.  The other is a poll of Massachusetts voters taken immediately after Republican Scott Brown was elected to the U.S. Senate to replace the late Democrat Edward Kennedy.  This poll found that a majority Brown voters support reductions in global warming pollution.

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Sean Pool is a Special Assistant for Energy Policy at American Progress.

Businesses leaders are rallying around bipartisan climate action.  One reason is that the cloud of uncertainty hovering over clean energy legislation is holding up billions of dollars of private investment that could be creating jobs and spurring technological innovation today.

Peter Darbee, CEO of Pacific Gas and Electric (one of the country’s biggest gas and electric utilities), explained in an op-ed yesterday that as companies wait to see what Congress will do, they are holding off on putting needed capital into infrastructure, manufacturing, and R&D facilities —investments that would amount to another (privately funded) stimulus package:

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